Since the post-1968 reforms that opened presidential nominations to binding primaries and caucuses, there have only been four cycles that didn’t feature an incumbent or former president. But assuming that President Donald Trump doesn’t seek an unconstitutional third term, 2028 will be one of them. These are some of the names being bandied about by political insiders looking ahead to the next election.
The Democrats already jockeying for position
Pete Buttigieg
Buttigieg served as Secretary of Transportation from 2021 to 2025, and his frequent appearances on right-wing outlets like Fox News “have been master classes in poise and articulation,” said Advocate. He recently decided not to seek a Senate seat in Michigan, a “decision framed by several allies and people in his inner circle as putting him in the strongest possible position to seek the presidency,” said Politico.
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Gavin Newsom
Newsom has been governor of California since 2019. He “built his national profile opposing the Republican president during his first term,” said Los Angeles Times. But in March Newsom caused a stir by inviting far-right operative Charlie Kirk onto his podcast, “angering many of the liberal activists whom Newsom would need to clinch the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028,” said The Washington Post.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
The New York Democrat has taken on a leading role opposing the Trump administration’s policies, including barnstorming the country with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-N.Y.). Ocasio-Cortez is “positioning herself well for a run,” and the 35-year-old “would bring much-needed youthful vigour to a decaying party,” said UnHerd.
JB Pritzker
The governor of Illinois since 2019, Pritzker has chosen a very different lane from Newsom, standing up for communities under fire from the Trump administration. He has distinguished himself by “pitching his potent combination of working-class issues, sharp business sense and reputation as a good-natured brawler,” said Bloomberg. But Pritzker, who is not subject to term limits, “has yet to say whether he will seek a rare but not unprecedented third term as governor,” said the Chicago Tribune.
Josh Shapiro
Shortlisted as Kamala Harris’ running mate in 2024, Pennsylvania’s governor is still in his first term. Shapiro has been “performing a balancing act in approaching the Trump administration,” said NBC News. He has “cemented his image as a moderate willing to work across the aisle,” said The Philadelphia Inquirer but remains “largely untested on the national stage.”
Tim Walz
The 2024 Democratic vice presidential nominee remains Minnesota’s governor until 2027 and said he would “rather fight Trump from his position as governor” than seek the state’s open U.S. Senate seat next year, said The New Yorker. That decision means that Walz may throw his hat in for the 2028 nomination. Walz “launched a national tour of town halls in Republican House districts, traveling the country,” said Axios, further fueling speculation about 2028.
Gretchen Whitmer
The two-term Michigan governor was one of the many names discussed to replace former President Joe Biden during the summer of 2024. Her double-digit reelection in a down year for Democrats in 2022 combined with her popularity in the purple state of Michigan turned her into a national figure. In terms of 2028 contenders, “there are few politicians talked about more than” Whitmer, said The New York Times.
Other names
Former vice president and 2024 Democratic nominee Kamala Harris is “expected to make a decision by the end of the summer” about running for governor of California, said the Los Angeles Times, and could still run for president again. Popular Democratic governors like Jared Polis of Colorado could join the fray, as could prominent Trump critics in the Senate like Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.), whose day-long filibuster in April means that he is “most likely going to run again,” said The Conversation. Celebrities like businessman Mark Cuban and ESPN commentator Stephen A. Smith are also in the mix.
A shorter list of Republicans in the shadow of J.D. Vance
Nikki Haley
In the past, the runner-up in the GOP primary often had the inside track on the next open nomination. It is not clear whether this rule will apply to former UN Ambassador and 2024 GOP runner-up Nikki Haley, who at this point represents a defeated faction in the party. It is also “not likely she would have” President Trump’s backing “if she runs in 2028,” said Fox News, which could cripple her chances.
Ron DeSantis
Like Haley, the Florida governor’s biggest challenge as he prepares a 2028 presidential bid is to “win back supporters of the Republican leader whom he dared to challenge in the last election,” said The Associated Press. DeSantis, who ended his 2024 campaign after a disappointing showing in the Iowa GOP caucus, remains popular in Florida and was reelected by nearly 20 points in 2022 in what was once a swing state.
Kristi Noem
Noem, now the Secretary of Homeland Security, was “floated as a potential running mate for Trump last year” before he picked J.D. Vance and “has since become a loyal and vocal supporter of the president, said The Hill. She seems to have survived the scandal from her memoir, in which she found herself “under fire for killing her family’s 14-month-old dog and boasting about it,” said The New York Times.
Marco Rubio
Rubio ran unsuccessfully for president in 2016, losing the nomination to Trump. Now, the former Florida senator is the Secretary of State in the second Trump administration and “needs to decide how much he wants to go along with things that clearly run counter to his previous principles,” such as siding with Russia in the Ukraine conflict, said The Washington Post.
J.D. Vance
The sitting vice president is just 40 years old and will benefit from having a “group of younger, more populist Republicans who are vocally advocating” for him as Trump’s successor, said Semafor. No incumbent vice president in the modern period who has sought his or her party’s nomination has failed to get it. Even better, “Trump’s longtime aides and allies have begun throwing their support behind Vance,” said The Independent.
Glenn Youngkin
Rumored as a more mainstream alternative to President Trump for the 2024 GOP nomination, Youngkin never ended up throwing his hat in the ring. Virginia’s popular GOP governor is subject to the state’s unusual one-term-at-a-time limit and cannot seek re-election in 2025. He is “seen as staunchly conservative but has a broad appeal, stretching outside of the MAGA movement,” said The Hill.
Other names
Vance’s presumed dominance of the field makes the GOP’s long-list considerably shorter than those of the Democrats. But those who received support in a recent Yougov poll include the president’s son Donald Trump, Jr., Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, CIA Director Tulsi Gabbard, Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
