A new era begins at Texas A&M as Mike Elko enters his first season as Aggies head coach.
Elko compiled a 16-9 record in two years at Duke, and he hopes that success continues in his return to College Station, where he was the defensive coordinator from 2018-21.
The Aggies are expected to find some success in Elko’s first season, as their win total is priced at 8.5.
They also have national championship odds of 40/1 and SEC title odds at 12/1 at FanDuel. Texas A&M is also +245 to make the 12-team College Football Playoff.
Let’s break down the Aggies roster and schedule to see if there’s any value in their futures markets.
Offensive outlook
Former Kansas State OC Collin Klein took the same position at Texas A&M after leading the 10th-best offense in the country (37.1 points per game). He’ll work with quarterback Conner Weigman, whom the Aggies hope can stay healthy after playing in just four games in 2023.
Weigman looked great in those four games, posting a 90.9 PFF passing grade, ranking fifth among 162 qualifiers. He enters the season without last year’s top two leading receivers, Ainias Smith (drafted by Eagles) and Evan Stewart (transferred to Oregon). Former Grand Valley State transfer Jahdae Walker could be in for a breakout campaign after posting three 100-yard games last year.
Running backs Amari Daniels and Le’Veon Moss return after combining for more than 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns a year ago. They’ll run behind a line that returns five of seven players with 300-plus snaps.
Defensive outlook
Elko led some excellent defenses in College Station, peaking in 2021 when the Aggies ranked third in the country, allowing 15.9 points per game.
Texas A&M lost a cadre of front-seven talent headlined by former five-star recruit Walter Nolen (transferred to Ole Miss) and uber-productive linebacker Edgerrin Cooper (drafted by Packers).
Betting on College Football?
However, Elko landed top talent in the transfer portal. Purdue transfer Nic Scourton was the third-best edge rusher in the Power Five last year, per PFF. Ball-hawking cornerback BJ Mayes and hard-hitting safety Trey Jones III provide help in the secondary.
A full-time starter in the SEC as a three-star true freshman, linebacker Taurean York has already exceeded expectations and could become a crucial piece for Elko’s defense as a signal caller.
Schedule breakdown
The Aggies avoid playing Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss and Tennessee this season. Texas and LSU are their two most formidable opponents, but those games are in College Station, leaving more of a chance for Texas A&M to pull off an upset or two.
Notre Dame will provide an excellent opportunity Saturday for a signature win to start the Elko era. The Irish lost left tackle Charles Jagusah for the season and are still working through an injury to Elko’s former quarterback, Riley Leonard.
Texas A&M is a 2.5-point home favorite at FanDuel as of Monday morning.
The Aggies don’t have a road game against a team projected to finish in the top half of the conference, and they have non-conference home games against McNeese State, Bowling Green and New Mexico State to help pad the win total.
Final verdict
Jimbo Fisher certainly knew how to recruit, but he consistently left wins on the table due to questionable late-game coaching decisions. The Aggies went 2-9 in one-score games over the past two seasons and that should change under Elko, an excellent in-game coach.
Take the Over on 8.5 wins (-120, DraftKings)
Weigman has serious potential at quarterback if he can stay healthy, and he’s shown flashes of first-round talent in the draft.
He’s priced at 30/1 to win the Heisman at ESPN Bet, and I love that value for a long-shot sprinkle.
RECOMMENDED BETS: Over 8.5 wins (-120, DraftKings); Long shot: Connor Weigman to win Heisman (30/1, ESPN Bet)
