2024 presidential election predictions: Here’s what experts have said

WASHINGTON – Who is going to win the 2024 presidential election? It depends on which leading predictor you ask. 

Polls have shown the Democratic nominee and her Republican contender, former President Donald Trump, locked in a dead heat nationally and in several swing states.

Experts who think Harris will win

Allan Lichtman, a historian and professor at American University known for accurately predicting presidential elections, has said he believes Vice President Kamala Harris will win. He first made the prediction in September, and this week, said he stands by his call.

“I don’t change my prediction on the fly in response to the polls or the conventional wisdom,” Lichtman told FOX 5 DC this week. “If I did that, I’d be useless as a forecaster. Might as well just go with the polls.”

“I stood by my prediction in 2016 when the pollsters were virtually unanimously against it,” added Lichtman, who correctly predicted Trump’s win against Hillary Clinton.

Lichtman relies on what he calls the “13 Keys to the White House” to make his predictions, instead of conventional polling. Four of the keys are based on a candidate’s politics, seven are based on performance and two are based on personality. 

In a The New York Times op-ed last week, longtime Democratic strategist James Carville also said he’s “certain” Harris will win.

“Today I am pulling my stool up to the political poker table to throw my chips all in: America, it will all be OK. Ms. Harris will be elected the next President of the United States,” Carville wrote.

Experts who think Trump will win

Nate Silver, a statistician and founder of FiveThirtyEight, wrote last week in another op-ed for the New York Times that his “gut says” Trump will win. 

However, Silver also warned that “a 50-50 forecast really does mean 50-50,” and that polling data indicates the race really could go either way. 

“Don’t be surprised if a relatively decisive win for one of the candidates is in the cards — or if there are bigger shifts from 2020 than most people’s guts might tell them,” Silver added.

FiveThirtyEight, which uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes, says Trump wins 52 times out of 100 in its simulations of the 2024 race.

Christophe Barraud, the chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco and sometimes described as “the world’s most accurate economist,” also predicted a Trump win – with Republicans also predicted to take back control of Congress in a “clean sweep.”

Barraud, 38, has been ranked the best economic forecaster for the U.S. economy by Bloomberg every year since 2012, according to FOX News. 

Barraud told Business Insider that if Trump wins with Congress split between parties, his ability to cut taxes for corporations and households could be stalled. Trump would therefore focus on tariffs, which could hurt global growth, he added.

Harris vs. Trump: Who is leading in the polls?

Harris and Trump remain virtually tied with less than a week until Election Day, according to the most recent polls. Harris has maintained a razor-thin edge nationally, but Trump appears to be gaining ground in key swing states. 

According to 270toWin, Harris maintains an edge in national polls. An average of 17-plus national polls showed Harris up by 1 percentage point as of Wednesday, Oct. 30.

Polling in the seven key battleground states, which will decide the outcome of the election, show Trump is slightly ahead in most swing states. 

All the polls are extremely close and within the margin of error.