2025 Emmys Lead Actor Comedy Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series Commentary (Updated April 3, 2025): Will Jeremy Allen White make it three in a row? Or will Martin Short finally get his very own acting statuette?

For the moment, Martin Short might have the edge. The beloved comedian and past Emmy winner (“AFI Life Achievement Award: A Tribute to Mel Brooks” in 2014 for variety special and writing for “SCTV Network” in 1983) shines in Hulu’s romp “Only Murders in the Building,” where his theatrical flair and impeccable timing as Oliver Putnam continues to win over both audiences and voters, proven by his SAG win earlier this year. With three consecutive nominations for this role, Short could finally secure a long-overdue acting win, solidifying his place among television’s comedy greats. It can also come down to whether or not his co-star Steve Martin factors into the conversation, after missing out once in this race, the two could vote-split, leaving an opportunity for others to rise.

Two-time consecutive Emmy winner Jeremy Allen White is a strong contender to win again for his performance in FX’s “The Bear.” A person hasn’t won three consecutive years in this category since Michael J. Fox for “Family Ties” (1986-1988). While the third season’s reviews didn’t ignite the same passion as its two previous predecessors, the acting has remained a consistent highlight.

Actors from the freshman shows could also make a significant impact this season. Seth Rogen has garnered attention for his role in Apple TV+’s “The Studio,” where he plays a neurotic showrunner navigating the chaos of Hollywood. Though he is more commonly known for his film work, Rogen’s performance has impressed critics. It could earn him his second acting nomination following 2022’s miniseries “Pam & Tommy” in supporting actor (limited).

Additionally, Adam Brody shines in Netflix’s romantic comedy “Nobody Wants This,” portraying a charming rabbi in a relationship with an agnostic woman. He won his first major award at the Critics Choice Awards earlier this year, and that could be a much-needed boost to propel him forward in the race.

Other contenders include Ted Danson, an 11-time Emmy nominee and two-time winner (for “Cheers” in 1990 and 1991), who returns in Netflix’s spy comedy “A Man on the Inside,” Jason Segel in Apple TV+’s delightful and moving dramedy “Shrinking,” and past nominees and darlings such as Steve Carell (“The Four Seasons”) and Matt Berry (“What We Do in the Shadows”).

See Emmy Award predictions below:

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(The list of predicted nominees and contenders is incomplete and will be updated every Thursday throughout the TV Awards season.)

And the Predicted Contenders Are:

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More Information (Lead Actor Comedy)

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About the Primetime Emmy Awards

The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.

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