2025 Oscar Predictions in Every Category

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Overall Oscars Commentary (Updated Dec. 19, 2024): Two groundbreaking international dramas — Alfonso Cuarón’s “Roma” (2018) and Ang Lee’s “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” (2000) — currently share the distinction of being the most Oscar-nominated non-English-language films of all time. Jacques Audiard’s Spanish-language musical, “Emilia Pérez,” could be poised to join their ranks or even surpass this record.

The buzz is justified: after securing six mentions on the Oscars shortlist and racking up 10 nominations each at the Critics Choice Awards and Golden Globes, the Cannes sensation seems to be gathering steam. If it maintains this momentum, “Emilia Pérez” could make Oscar morning a record-breaking one for Netflix.

But it’s still only mid-December, folks. Anything can happen.

Oscar voters, known for their love of the theatrical experience, are increasingly navigating a digital-first reality. Gone are the days of members lugging stacks of DVD screeners home for holiday viewing. With AMPAS and BAFTA eliminating physical screeners, awards campaigns now rely on digital viewing portals accessible from the comfort of home. While this democratizes access, it also begs the question: which contenders lose their impact when removed from the immersive environment of a theater?

Take Jon M. Chu’s blockbuster musical “Wicked,” for instance. A family-friendly favorite in the making, it’s likely to see repeat viewings in households over the holiday break, especially with kids running around the house (or villa?), and taking the remote control hostage. On the other hand, a sprawling 215-minute epic like “The Brutalist” might struggle to find its footing in a season where time is a precious commodity. For those who do manage to catch it, though, IMAX screenings promise to showcase its grandeur in a way home viewing never could.

As awards season kicks into high gear, major voting bodies are already deep into their processes. SAG Awards and BAFTA longlist voting are underway, with results expected to offer early indicators of frontrunners. When the calendar turns to January, the Golden Globes will kick things off with their high-profile ceremony, coinciding with the opening weekend of the Palm Springs International Film Festival. Shortly after, the Critics Choice Awards will crown their winners, with several films vying for the top honor.

We’ll see where it all lands.

This is the last prediction update of 2024, and the final guesses for the Globes will come days before the ceremony. I’ve pointed out the films that were near and dear to my heart, so now it’s the industry’s turn to catch up on all the great cinema offered during the past 12 months.

Happy Holidays, and enjoy all the movies

Top 3 projected nomination leaders (films): “Emilia Pérez” and “Wicked” (11); “The Brutalist” and “Conclave” (8); “Dune: Part Two” (7)

Top 3 projected nomination leaders (studios): Netflix (20); A24 (13); Universal Pictures (11)

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Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)

Best Picture

“Anora” (Neon)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Sing Sing” (A24)
“The Substance” (Mubi)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Director

Jacques Audiard
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Sean Baker
“Anora” (Neon)
Edward Berger
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Jon M. Chu
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Brady Corbet ***
“The Brutalist” (A24)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Actor

Adrien Brody ***
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Timothée Chalamet
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Daniel Craig
“Queer” (A24)
Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing” (A24) 
Ralph Fiennes
“Conclave” (Focus Features)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Actress

Cynthia Erivo ***
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Karla Sofía Gascón
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Angelina Jolie
“Maria” (Netflix)
Mikey Madison
“Anora” (Neon)
Fernanda Torres
“I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin ***
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Clarence Maclin
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Edward Norton
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Guy Pearce
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Denzel Washington
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actress

Selena Gomez
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Ariana Grande ***
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Margaret Qualley
“The Substance” (Mubi)
Isabella Rossellini
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Zoe Saldaña
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Original Screenplay

“All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
Payap Kapadia
“Anora” (Neon) ***
Sean Baker
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jesse Eisenberg
“The Substance” (Mubi)
Coralie Fargeat

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Adapted Screenplay

“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
Peter Straughan
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios)
RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Animated Feature

“Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar) 
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
“Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Production Design

“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Cinematography

“The Brutalist” (A24) ***
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Maria” (Netflix)
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Costume Design

“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Maria” (Netflix)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Film Editing

“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“September 5” (Paramount Pictures)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Makeup and Hairstyling

“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Substance” (Mubi) ***
“Waltzing with Brando” (Filmin’Tahiti)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Sound

“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Visual Effects

“Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios) 
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Original Score

“The Brutalist” (A24) ***
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Original Song

“Never Too Late” from “Elton John: Never Too Late” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
“Sick in the Head” from “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
“Kiss the Sky” from “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Documentary Feature

“Daughters” (Netflix) ***
“No Other Land” (ImmerGuteFilme)
“The Remarkable Life of Ibelin” (Netflix)
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat” (Kino Lorber)
“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

International Feature

“Emilia Pérez” from France (Netflix) ***
“From Ground Zero” from Palestine (No U.S. Distribution)
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Germany (Neon)
“Vermiglio” from Italy (Janus Films)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Animated Short

“Au Revoir Mon Monde” (Ecole MoPA) ***
“In the Shadow of the Cypress” (Voce Spettacolo)
“Maybe Elephants” (National Film Board of Canada)
“Origami” (Mont Blanc Entertainment)
“The Wild-Tempered Clavier” (SND Films)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>coming soon

Documentary Short

“Chasing Roo” (Spin Film)
“Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World” (Netflix)
“Once upon a Time in Ukraine” (Earle Mack Productions)
“The Only Girl in the Orchestra” (Netflix)
“A Swim Lesson” (Le Train Train) ***

Oscar category page with rankings>>>coming soon

Live Action Short

“Anuja” (Graves Films)
“Dovecote” (LEAF Entertainment) ***
“I’m Not a Robot” (OAK Motion Pictures)
“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” (Antitalent Produkcija)
“Paris 70” (Astronauta Films)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>coming soon

More Information (All Categories)

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About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.

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