2025 Oscars Predictions in Every Category

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Overall Oscars commentary (Updated Feb. 18, 2025): Final Oscar voting closes today at 5 p.m. PT, and the mad dash to submit ballots is in full swing.

Pundits and awards obsessives are clinging to precedent, using the DGA, PGA and BAFTA winners as road signs through an otherwise unpredictable season. But the truth is, plenty of question marks remain across multiple categories.

Edward Berger’s “Conclave” stunned at the BAFTAs, taking home best film, adapted screenplay (Peter Straughan), editing (Nick Emerson), and outstanding British film. Seemingly overnight, this tense religious thriller has gone from dark horse to legitimate challenger, putting real pressure on the presumed frontrunner, “Anora.” If the drama can pull off a SAG ensemble victory, watch out for this one.

And yet, “Anora” boasts a nearly insurmountable winning streak — DGA, PGA, Critics Choice, and WGA. That powerhouse combination has only failed to translate into an Oscar win once in history (“Brokeback Mountain”).

Across the Atlantic, BAFTA also delivered one of the ceremony’s biggest shockers: Mikey Madison pulled off a jaw-dropping upset, dethroning the heavily favored Demi Moore (“The Substance”) to win leading actress for her performance in Sean Baker’s dramedy. It was a reminder that nothing is ever indeed locked in until the envelopes are opened.

Meanwhile, in the other acting races, Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”), Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”), and Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”) look nearly unbeatable after racking up wins at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. If any of them take the SAG Award, history is firmly on their side — only one actor has ever lost the Oscar after sweeping all four major televised awards (Russell Crowe for “A Beautiful Mind”).

But SAG habitually throws curveballs, often favoring broad populist appeal. This year, that could work in favor of “Wicked” or “A Complete Unknown,” which led to the SAG nominations. Historically, at least one of the two most-nominated films at SAG wins something. That could be good news for “Wicked,” whether through an ensemble win or a victory for Ariana Grande. As for “A Complete Unknown,” its best shot might be a last-minute surge from Timothée Chalamet or a shocking trophy for his co-star Monica Barbaro.

With a volatile season, expect at least one or two twists before the final credits roll on Oscar season. Updated predictions are below.

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Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)

Best Picture

“Anora” (Neon) ***
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“The Substance” (Mubi)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Director

Jacques Audiard
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Sean Baker ***
“Anora” (Neon)
Brady Corbet
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Coralie Fargeat
“The Substance” (Mubi)
James Mangold
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Actor

Adrien Brody ***
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Timothée Chalamet
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing” (A24) 
Ralph Fiennes
“Conclave” (Focus Features) 
Sebastian Stan
“The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Actress

Cynthia Erivo
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Karla Sofía Gascón
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Mikey Madison ***
“Anora” (Neon)
Demi Moore
“The Substance” (Mubi)
Fernanda Torres
“I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov
“Anora” (Neon)
Kieran Culkin ***
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Edward Norton
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Guy Pearce
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Jeremy Strong
“The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actress

Monica Barbaro
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Ariana Grande
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Felicity Jones
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Isabella Rossellini
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Zoe Saldaña ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Original Screenplay

“Anora” (Neon) ***
Sean Baker
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jesse Eisenberg
“September 5” (Paramount Pictures)
Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Alex David
“The Substance” (Mubi)
Coralie Fargeat

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Adapted Screenplay

“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jay Cocks, James Mangold
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
Peter Straughan
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios)
RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Animated Feature

“Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar) 
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
“Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Production Design

“The Brutalist” (A24)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Cinematography

“The Brutalist” (A24) ***
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Maria” (Netflix)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Costume Design

“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Film Editing

“Anora” (Neon)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Makeup and Hairstyling

“A Different Man” (A24)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
“The Substance” (Mubi)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Sound

“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Visual Effects

“Alien: Romulus” (20th Century Studios)
“Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Original Score

“The Brutalist” (A24) ***
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Original Song

“Never Too Late” from “Elton John: Never Too Late” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix) ***
“Like a Bird” from “Sing Sing” (A24)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Documentary Feature

“Black Box Diaries” (MTV Documentary Films)
“No Other Land” (No U.S. Distribution)
“Porcelain War” (Picturehouse) ***
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat” (Kino Lorber)
“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

International Feature

“Emilia Pérez” from France (Netflix)
“Flow” from Latvia (Janus Films/Sideshow)
“The Girl with the Needle” from Denmark (Mubi)
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil (Sony Pictures Classics) ***
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Germany (Neon)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Animated Short

“Beautiful Men” (Miyu Distribution)
“In the Shadow of Cypress” (Voce Spettacolo)
“Magic Candies” (Toei Animation) ***
“Wander to Wonder” (Bantam Film)
“Yuck!” (Miyu Distribution)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Documentary Short

“Death by Numbers” (Cuomo Cole Productions)
“I Am Ready, Warden” (MTV Documentary Films) ***
“Incident” (Hypnotic Pictures)
“Instruments of a Beating Heart” (The New York Times OpDocs/Cineric Creative)
“The Only Girl in the Orchestra” (Netflix)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Live Action Short

“Anuja” (Netflix) ***
“I’m Not a Robot” (The New Yorker)
“The Last Ranger” (Six Feet Films)
“A Lien” (No U.S. Distribution)
“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” (Manifest)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

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About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.

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