The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s NFL Conference Championship games.
SUNDAY
BRONCOS +4.5 over Patriots
If the Broncos try to play like they normally do by having their quarterback run around the field and create plays, they will lose this game decisively. But head coach Sean Payton is too smart for that.
Payton knows the way to win a game like this in freezing cold temperatures at home in the elevation with an elite defense.
Ball control and defense is the path to victory in what I suspect will be a very low-scoring game at Mile High.
Temperatures are expected to be in the low teens and could even reach single digits, although the game will kick off around 12 p.m. PST, giving them at least some reprieve on an expected sunny day.
Still, this is a game Denver should muck up and rely on their No. 5 DVOA-rated defense that could give Drake Maye and the Patriots fits all afternoon.
We know that Jarrett Stidham, who is taking over for the injured Bo Nix, has only won one game in his NFL career, but this is all about the defense.
The lookahead line had the Broncos favored by 1.5 before the Nix injury.
The line has now shifted 5.5 points in the opposite direction, and that’s just too rich for me.
I had the Broncos +5.5 on my early predictions piece this week, and I like the Broncos down to +3.5; that’s what I feel like the difference between Stidham and Nix is.
My model has the score of this game at 22.01 to 20.39.
Rams +2.5 over SEAHAWKS
You missed out on Rams +3 earlier in the week, but it’s not too late to support the best quarterback remaining in the playoffs with a loaded group of playmakers. Sam Darnold isn’t bad by any means, and Seattle has the No. 1-rated defense in the NFL per FTN’s DVOA, but I’m taking the points here.
In the prior two games, both games were decided by a total of three points.
For all intents and purposes, this game is the Super Bowl between the two best teams in the NFL.
Seattle is rated No. 1 overall in total DVOA, while the Rams are rated No. 2.
Sean McVay has been there and done that, while the Seahawks are in a bit of uncharted territory.
Trust the Rams to keep this close in a razor-thin spot that could go either way.
My model has underdogs as the best bet of the weekend, with a projected score of 24.13 to 23.16 in favor of the Rams.
Season: 120-127-5
Playoffs: 4-4
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
