Editor’s note: Throughout the Oscar season, IndieWire will update this page with in-depth Oscar predictions from Awards Editor Marcus Jones, Craft Editor Sarah Shachat, and Curation Editor Wilson Chapman. In addition to predictions for each category, listing the ever-changing contenders, we will be reporting on what films have captivated voters, rules changes made by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, interviews with potential nominees, and much more.
The State of the Race
We know, we know: “Why did IndieWire take so long to publish your 2026 Oscars predictions?” Please keep in mind that we have a policy to not label any film a frontrunner until we have actually seen them.
With that in mind, we turn it over to you: Can you really name another film that premiered before September, besides “Sinners,” that has a viable shot at winning Best Picture?
Even after the dust has settled, and with a new crop of contenders coming out of the fall festivals, not much has changed on that front. This category is Warner Bros. Pictures’ to lose. The studio, which started the year running on empty, is now basking in the glow of a record-setting success streak at the box office, and universal acclaim for its next release “One Battle After Another,” a Paul Thomas Anderson film that may now have even more potential than “Sinners” to sweep the Oscars.
With those two films in mind, let’s point out three elements that make for a Best Picture frontrunner: great reviews, an overdue filmmaker, and an impressive box office haul.
Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” checks all three of those boxes, as the 39-year-old filmmaker whose work has made over $2 billion total at the global box office, has never received an Oscar nomination for Best Director nor Best Screenplay. Meanwhile, what Anderson lacks in box office haul, he makes up for in acclaim and overdue-ness. “One Battle After Another” debuted to a score of 96 on Metacritic, the highest score for any 2025 release so far, plus the 55-year-old auteur has racked up 11 Oscar nominations across the nine previous feature films he’s directed.
What more does a guy have to do to finally prove himself to the Academy?
But it would be foolish to imply that Focus Features’ release “Hamnet,” which just won the coveted People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival, does not have a fighting chance at Best Picture. Its director, Chloé Zhao, has already won the Oscar for Best Picture and Best Director before, and its lead Jessie Buckley is the clearest frontrunner in any of the acting categories.
Reigning Best Picture-winning studio Neon did actually make a splash in the first half of the year, with its films earning most of the awards at Cannes, including the Palme d’Or for Jafar Panahi’s “It Was Just an Accident.” But the young studio is suffering from success on the awards front. Its film “Sentimental Value” seems like Neon’s best bet at Best Picture, as the Joachim Trier film about a film director father trying to reconnect with his theater actress daughter has the least amount of subtitles, but it only being a Grand Prix winner means a jury of industry peers have already favored another film over it for a prize before.
The studio is also releasing the latest from South Korean icon Park Chan-wook, “No Other Choice,” which received much critical acclaim after its Venice Film Festival world premiere, but did not earn any awards. That puts it in a tough spot against even more Neon films, including “Sirāt” and “The Secret Agent,” which also will be Best International Feature submissions, and also both won awards at Cannes.
If there is an exciting category to keep an eye outside of Best Picture, it is Best Actor, which is so overcrowded with former Oscar winners, and charisma machine contenders, that even recent winner Brendan Fraser is far from guaranteed a nomination slot for his latest film “Rental Family,” which was not as successful at the Toronto Film Festival as expected.
Animation Analysis
The big story of the Animated Feature race is whether or not Netflix can keep it “Golden.” The breakout film hit of the summer, the streamer’s jubilant “KPOP Demon Hunters” isn’t just the company’s biggest animated movie ever: it’s their biggest film, period, and a bonafide phenomenon. Between record numbers on streaming, a soundtrack album that has blown up the Billboard charts, and sold out sing-along shows, “KPOP Demon Hunters” is one of those rare movies in the heavily fractured media landscape to feel like a legitimate monoculture moment.
But will that translate to Oscars glory?
In recent years, the Animated Feature race has gone from one of the most predictable and milquetoast races — where you could pencil in a Pixar of Disney film to win — to one of the most exciting. However, thanks to the expansion of Academy ranks to improve on diversity and bring in international voters, which has had an impact on many races but is most starkly seen in the last three Animated Feature winners. In 2022, Netflix’s own stop-motion “Pinocchio” from Guillermo del Toro won; 2023 and 2024, meanwhile, went to international efforts “The Boy and the Heron” and “Flow,” the latter of which made history as the first independent feature to win the trophy.
All that being said: the category no longer defaults to the most widely seen film anymore, as it did in years’ past. There’s plenty still in “Demon Hunters” favor, from genuine audience enthusiasm to its global appeal that can certainly play well with international voters. But it will have genuine competition against other contenders, both big and small. —Wilson Chapman
Craft Analysis
It is still the middle of September, and there are yet more things in Heaven and Earth than are dreamt of in our awards season philosophy here at IndieWire. But, with the conclusion of Venice, Telluride, and TIFF, the poor players who strut and fret their hour upon the (Oscar) stage are mostly identifiable. OK, that second Shakespeare reference is from “Macbeth,” but “Hamnet,” does seem to be in as strong a position for the craft categories as it is for the above-the-line awards. This is the second time that a Chloe Zhao film has received the TIFF People’s Choice — and the first time was with “Nomadland.”
Our craft category predictions are playing a little fast and loose with some movies still to be released, in terms of whether we are waiting for time to tell or just going ahead and giving them contender status — most especially “Frankenstein,” which should be competitive in a lot of categories even if the Guillermo Del Toro movie receives a more muted response; but there is also “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” which almost certainly will demand visual effects and camera consideration, given James Cameron keeps inventing new technology in order to make these films; we are still giving “Wicked: For Good” an incumbency advantage; the positive reception of Rian Johnson’s “Wake Up Dead Man” could be good for multiple craft categories, too.
Looking ahead, the New York Film Festival will likely be a further proving ground for Benny Safdie’s “The Smashing Machine,” Noah Baumbach’s “Jay Kelly,” and Park Chan-wook’s “No Other Choice.” If they pick up stronger awards momentum, their crafts will come under more (for your) consideration. —Sarah Shachat
The 98th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 15 and air live on ABC at 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT. See the full list of predictions below, which will be refreshed throughout the race, and follow IndieWire on X, Instagram, and Facebook for all the latest Oscars news.
Potential nominees are listed in alphabetical order; no film will be deemed a frontrunner until we have seen it. “Time Will Tell” refers to films that have not yet screened for critics and/or are without distribution.
Additional category predictions to be announced.
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Best Picture
Image Credit: Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection Frontrunners:
“A House of Dynamite”
“Bugonia”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Jay Kelly”
“No Other Choice”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams”Contenders:
“It Was Just an Accident”
“Kiss of the Spider Woman”
“The Smashing Machine”
“Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere”
“The Voice of Hind Rajab”Long Shots:
“F1”
“Rental Family”
“The Lost Bus”
“Roofman”
“Weapons”In a Perfect World:
“Black Bag”
“Friendship”
“The Shrouds”Time Will Tell*:
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“Is This Thing On?”
“Marty Supreme”
“Wicked: For Good”
“The Testament of Ann Lee”*“Time Will Tell” refers to films that have not yet screened for critics and/or are without distribution.
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Best Director
Image Credit: Merrick Morton/Warner Bros. Pictures Frontrunners:
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Kathryn Bigelow, “A House of Dynamite”
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”Contenders:
Clint Bentley, “Train Dreams”
Park Chan-wook, “No Other Choice”
Guillermo del Toro, “Frankenstein”
Kleber Mendonça Filho, “The Secret Agent”
Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident”Long Shots:
Noah Baumbach, “Jay Kelly”
Kaouther Ben Hania, “The Voice of Hind Rajab”
Paul Greengrass, “The Lost Bus”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “Bugonia”
Benny Safdie, “The Smashing Machine”In a Perfect World:
Alex Garland and Ray Mendoza, “Warfare”
Dea Kulumbegashvili, “April”
Óliver Laxe, “Sirāt”Time Will Tell:
James Cameron, “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
Jon M. Chu, “Wicked: For Good”
Bradley Cooper, “Is This Thing On?”
Mona Fastvold, “The Testament of Ann Lee”
Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme” -
Best Actor
Image Credit: A24/Everett Collection Frontrunners:
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
Dwayne Johnson, “The Smashing Machine”
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet”
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”Contenders:
George Clooney, “Jay Kelly”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Anemone”
Joel Egerton, “Train Dreams”
Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia”
Jeremy Allen White, “Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere”Long Shots:
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
Oscar Isaac, “Frankenstein”
Lee Byung-hun, “No Other Choice”
Matthew McConaughey, “The Lost Bus”
Channing Tatum, “Roofman”In a Perfect World:
Frank Dillane, “Urchin”
Bill Skarsgård, “Dead Man’s Wire”
Denzel Washington, “Highest 2 Lowest”Time Will Tell:
Riz Ahmed, “Hamlet”
Will Arnett, “Is This Thing On?”
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
Willem Dafoe, “Late Fame”
Leo Woodall, “Tuner” -
Best Actress
Image Credit: Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection Frontrunners:
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
June Squibb, “Eleanor the Great”
Emma Stone, “Bugonia”Contenders:
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Die, My Love”
Julia Roberts, “After the Hunt”
Sydney Sweeney, “Christy”
Tessa Thompson, “Hedda”Long Shots:
America Ferrera, “The Lost Bus”
Jodie Foster, “A Private Life”
Imogen Poots, “The Chronology of Water”
Eva Victor, “Sorry, Baby”
Naomi Watts, “The Friend”In a Perfect World:
Danielle Deadwyler, “40 Acres”
Saja Kilani, “The Voice of Hind Rajab”
Lucy Liu, “Rosemead”Time Will Tell:
Michaela Coel, “The Christophers”
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good”
Emma Mackey, “Ella McCay”
Saoirse Ronan, “Bad Apples”
Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee” -
Best Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Peter Mountain / Netflix / Everett Collection Frontrunners:
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
Jacobi Jupe, “Hamnet”
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Adam Sandler, “Jay Kelly”
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”Contenders:
Benicio del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
Tracy Letts, “A House of Dynamite”
William H. Macy, “Train Dreams”
Jeremy Strong, “Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere”
Tonatiuh, “Kiss of the Spider Woman”Long Shots:
Ryan Bader, “The Smashing Machine”
Miles Caton, “Sinners”
Russell Crowe, “Nuremberg”
Billy Crudup, “Jay Kelly”
Idris Elba, “A House of Dynamite”In a Perfect World:
Michael Cera, “The Phoenician Scheme”
David Jonsson, “The Long Walk”
Alexander Skarsgård, “Pillion”Time Will Tell:
Jonathan Bailey, “Wicked: For Good”
Albert Brooks, “Ella McCay”
Bradley Cooper, “Is This Thing On?”
Abel Ferrara, “Marty Supreme”
Lewis Pullman, “The Testament of Ann Lee” -
Best Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Neon / Courtesy Everett Collection Frontrunners:
Emily Blunt, “The Smashing Machine”
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another”
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”Contenders:
Regina Hall, “One Battle After Another”
Nina Hoss, “Hedda”
Jennifer Lopez, “Kiss of the Spider Woman”
Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Hailee Steinfeld, “Sinners”Long Shots:
Glenn Close, “Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery”
Zoey Deutch, “Nouvelle Vague”
Kirsten Dunst, “Roofman”
Rebecca Ferguson, “A House of Dynamite”
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”In a Perfect World:
Naomi Ackie, “Sorry, Baby”
Vicky Krieps, “Father, Mother, Sister, Brother”
Deidre O’Connell, “Eddington”Time Will Tell:
Odessa A’zion, “Marty Supreme”
Jamie Lee Curtis, “Ella McCay”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good”
Greta Lee, “Late Fame”
Gwyneth Paltrow, “Marty Supreme” -
Best Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy Netflix Frontrunners:
Noah Baumbach and Emily Mortimer (“Jay Kelly”)
Ryan Coogler (“Sinners”)
Noah Oppenheim (“A House of Dynamite”)
Jafar Panahi (“It Was Just an Accident”)
Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt (“Sentimental Value”)Contenders:
Stephen Blahut and Hikari (“Rental Family”)
Benny Safdie (“The Smashing Machine”)
Zach Cregger (“Weapons”)
Kleber Mendonça Filho (“The Secret Agent”)
Eva Victor (“Sorry, Baby”)Long Shots:
Ari Aster (“Eddington”)
Mary Bronstein (“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”)
Santiago Fillol and Óliver Laxe (“Sirāt”)
Jim Jarmusch (“Father, Mother, Sister, Brother”)
Celine Song (“Materialists”)In a Perfect World:
Michael Angelo Covino and Kyle Marvin (“Splitsville”)
Alex Russell (“Lurker”)
James Sweeney (“Twinless”)Time Will Tell:
Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie (“Marty Supreme”)
Samy Burch (“Late Fame”)
James L. Brooks (“Ella McCay”)
Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold (“The Testament of Ann Lee”)
Hailey Gates (“Atropia”) -
Best Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Adolpho Veloso/Sundance Institute Frontrunners:
Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battle After Another”)
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar (“Train Dreams”)
Guillermo del Toro (“Frankenstein”)
Will Tracy (“Bugonia”)
Chloé Zhao (“Hamnet”)Contenders:
Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Jahye Lee, and Don McKellar (“No Other Choice”)
Bill Condon (“Kiss of the Spider Woman”)
Scott Cooper (“Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere”)
Rian Johnson (“Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery”)
James Vanderbilt (“Nuremberg”)Long Shots:
Nia DaCosta (“Hedda”)
Mike Flanagan (“The Life of Chuck”)
Alan Fox (“Highest 2 Lowest”)
Holly Gent, Michèle Halberstadt, Laetitia Masson & Vincent Palmo (“Nouvelle Vague”)
Paul Greengrass and Brad Ingelsby (“The Lost Bus”)In a Perfect World:
Bong Joon Ho (“Mickey 17”)
Embeth Davidtz (“Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs Tonight”)
Alex Garland (“28 Years Later”)Time Will Tell:
Will Arnett, John Bishop, Mark Chappell, and Bradley Cooper (“Is This Thing On?”)
Michael Bacall and Edgar Wright (“The Running Man”)
James Cameron, Rick Jaffa, and Amanda Silver (“Avatar: Fire and Ash”)
Dana Fox and Winnie Holzman (“Wicked: For Good”)
Rebecca Sonnenshine (“The Housemaid”) -
Best Animated Feature
Image Credit: Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection Frontrunners:
“KPOP Demon Hunters”
“Arco”
“Scarlet”
“Ne Zha 2”
“Elio”Contenders:
“The Bad Guys 2”
“Fixed”
“In Your Dreams”
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain”
“The Twits”Long Shots:
“A Magnificent Life”
“Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle”
“Dog Man”
“The King of Kings”
“Predator: Killer of Killers”In a Perfect World:
“Boys Go to Jupiter”
“ChaO”
“Lesbian Space Princess”Time Will Tell:
“Animal Farm”
“Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc”
“Dandelion’s Odyssey”
“The Spongebob Movie: Search for Squarepants”
“Zootopia 2” -
Best Casting
Image Credit: John Wilson/Netflix Frontrunners:
“Hamnet”
“Jay Kelly”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
“Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery”Contenders:
“After the Hunt”
“Rental Family”
“Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”Long Shots:
“The Mastermind”
“Sentimental Value”In a Perfect World:
“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”Time Will Tell:
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“Marty Supreme”
“Wicked: For Good” -
Best Cinematography
Image Credit: Apple Studios Frontrunners:
“F1”
“Hamnet”
“Jay Kelly”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”Contenders:
“A House of Dynamite”
“Train Dreams”
“Warfare”Long Shots:
“Bugonia”
“Hedda”In a Perfect World:
“28 Years Later”Time Will Tell:
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“Marty Supreme”
“The Testament of Anne Lee” -
Best Costume Design
Image Credit: Ana Carballosa Frontrunners:
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Hedda”
“Kiss of the Spider Woman”
“Sinners”Contenders:
“One Battle After Another”
“The Phoenician Scheme”
“Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”Long Shots:
“The Mastermind”
“Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery”In a Perfect World:
“Freakier Friday”
“Drop”Time Will Tell:
“Marty Supreme”
“The Testament of Ann Lee”
“Wicked: For Good” -
Best Editing
Image Credit: NEON Frontrunners:
“A House of Dynamite”
“Hamnet”
“Jay Kelly”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”Contenders:
“F1”
“No Other Choice”
“Sentimental Value”Long Shots:
“Frankenstein”
“The Smashing Machine”In a Perfect World:
“The Long Walk”
“Freakier Friday”Time Will Tell:
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“Marty Supreme”
“Wicked: For Good” -
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Black Bear Pictures Frontrunners:
“Christy”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Sinners”
“The Smashing Machine”Contenders:
“28 Years Later”
“Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”
“Together”Long Shots:
“Nuremberg”
“One Battle After Another”In a Perfect World:
“Weapons”Time Will Tell:
“Wicked: For Good”
“The Wizard of the Kremlin”
“Predator: Badlands” -
Best Production Design
Image Credit: Ken Woroner / © Netflix / courtesy Everett Collection Frontrunners:
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Kiss of the Spider Woman”
“No Other Choice”
“Sinners”Contenders:
“A House of Dynamite”
“Jay Kelly”
“Nouvelle Vague”Long Shots:
“Hedda”
“The Mastermind”In a Perfect World:
“28 Years Later”Time Will Tell:
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“Marty Supreme”
“The Testament of Ann Lee”
“Wicked: For Good” -
Best Sound
Image Credit: A24 Frontrunners:
“Hamnet”
“A House of Dynamite”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
“Warfare”Contenders:
“F1”
“Mission Impossible: Final Reckoning”
“Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”Long Shots:
“Kpop Demon Hunters”
“The Mastermind”In a Perfect World:
“The Naked Gun”Time Will Tell:
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery”
“Wicked: For Good” -
Best Visual Effects
Image Credit: Warner Bros. Frontrunners:
“F1”
“The Fantastic Four: First Steps”
“How to Train Your Dragon”
“Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning”
“Superman”Contenders:
“Lilo & Stitch”
“Mickey 17”
“Warfare”Long Shots:
“Frankenstein”
“Thunderbolts*”In a Perfect World:
“No Other Choice”Time Will Tell:
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“Predator: Badlands”
“Tron: Ares” -
Best Original Score
Image Credit: MGM/Everett Collection Frontrunners:
“A House of Dynamite”
“After the Hunt”
“Hamnet”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”Contenders:
“Bugonia”
“F1”
“Hedda”Long Shots:
“The Mastermind”
“The Fantastic Four: First Steps”In a Perfect World:
“The Life of Chuck”Time Will Tell:
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“The Testament of Ann Lee”
“Wicked: For Good”
