Democrats are trying to bounce back from their 2024 thumping, while Republicans are working to blunt the typical momentum for the party out of power as voters hit the polls Nov. 4 for contests that will offer a window into the mood of the electorate nearly a year after President Donald Trump won his second term.
The off-year races in New Jersey, Virginia, California, New York City and elsewhere are seen as key early barometers of how voters are feeling about Trump and the Democratic Party as it fights his aggressive agenda.
The president has loomed large over the contests, featuring in ads and as a frequent topic in debates as Democrats blast his record and Republicans embrace it. Trump is paying close attention, hyping GOP candidates on social media and taking aim at their opponents.
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The 2025 elections include a pair of races for governor and other down-ballot seats in New Jersey and Virginia, a high-profile ballot measure in California, state Supreme Court retention elections in Pennsylvania and mayoral contests around the country, most notably in New York City.
The elections are a precursor to more consequential midterm contests next year, when control of Congress – and with it the fate of Trump’s legislative agenda – will be decided. The results on Nov. 4 will be highly scrutinized to see which party has the upper hand heading into next November’s midterms. Here are seven big questions surrounding the elections:
Who has the momentum?
A supporter of Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, dresses as Batman as he rallies outside of her campaign event at Ashland Town Hall Pavilion on October 31, 2025 in Ashland, Virginia. Spanberger will face off against Republican candidate Winsome Earle-Sears in the Commonwealth of Virginia’s off-year election for governor and other statewide offices on November 4.
New Jersey and Virginia haven’t voted for a Republican president in a couple decades, but they can still be swingy in governor’s races and these contests have signaled what’s to come in the midterms.
The party that doesn’t occupy the White House tends to do well in these governors’ races, with that dynamic then carrying over to the midterms.
Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate Winsome Earle-Sears speaks during a campaign event at the Rockingham County Fair on October 30, 2025 in Harrisonburg, Virginia. Earle-Sears’ campaign continues to travel across the state of Virginia ahead of the Commonwealth’s off-year election for governor on November 4.
More: See why Virginia and New Jersey’s elections matter this year
It happened in 2009 under President Barack Obama when Republicans won both gubernatorial races, in 2017 under Trump when Democrats won them both, and in 2021 under President Joe Biden when the GOP won the governor’s mansion in Virginia and came close in New Jersey.
Democrats are favored to win both gubernatorial races this year, so a GOP upset in either state would be a bad sign for the party currently locked out of power in Washington. A small margin of victory by Democrats in one or both races also could signal trouble. Republicans are particularly focused on New Jersey, where Trump substantially narrowed his losing margin in 2024 and the GOP candidate is polling better than in Virginia.
Will California check Trump’s redistricting moves?
Protesters form a human banner on Ocean Beach in San Francisco, California on Oct. 18, 2025 supporting California’s Proposition 50 redistricting ballot measure and opposing President Donald Trump during nationwide “No Kings” demonstrations.
California’s election revolves around Trump and which party holds control of Congress.
The state’s Proposition 50 ballot measure is a direct response by Democrats, led by Gov. Gavin Newsom, to the president’s push to redraw congressional maps in several red states.
More: Newsom vs. Trump: What to know as California voters pick sides in a big political battle
Lawmakers and elected officials speak at the conclusion of a House meeting at the state Capitol on Aug. 5, 2025 in Austin, Texas. Texas Democratic lawmakers have fled the state in an attempt to protest and deny quorum for votes on a proposed Republican redistricting plan. Gov. Greg Abbott has threatened to remove lawmakers who do not return by today.
More: How Proposition 50 can change California elections and shift Trump’s strategy
After Texas drew five more GOP-leaning seats, Newsom pressed California lawmakers to offset the move by drawing more Democratic-leaning seats. To do it, they’ll need approval from voters to temporarily go around the state’s independent redistricting commission established by an earlier ballot initiative in 2010.
The redistricting tussle has huge implications. Trump is coaxing a more GOP-friendly midterm map from red state leaders out of concern that a Democrat-led House during his final two years in the White House would stymie his agenda and open the door to investigations, oversight and perhaps even a third impeachment. But California could offset much of Trump’s efforts in the other states.
Will Newsom 2028 get a boost?
California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks to reporters after he participated in a fireside chat at the California Economic Summit on October 22, 2025 in Stockton, California.
Approval of Proposition 50 also would be a big win for Newsom, who has been the face of the campaign and one of Trump’s chief antagonists.
Newsom recently said he’s considering a run for president in 2028. He has been forceful in taking on Trump, playing to Democrats’ desire for a fighter to confront a president many view as authoritarian.
Checking the president’s redistricting power play could further endear Newsom to Democrats by boosting his status as one of Trump’s most high-profile nemesis, a coveted title in a wide-open Democratic presidential primary that could feature former Vice President Kamala Harris, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker.
Does anti-Trump messaging work again?
President Donald Trump speaks to the media before boarding Air Force One to depart for Washington, at Morristown Municipal Airport in Morristown, New Jersey, U.S., September 14, 2025.
Democrats again are making opposition to Trump central to their campaigns.
The message fires up the party’s base, helping Democrats win control of Congress in 2018 and claim the White House in 2020, but there are questions about whether attacking Trump is a successful strategy with the broader electorate going forward. Trump won every swing state in 2024, along with the popular vote, and made gains with key groups of voters, including minorities and young people.
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The Democrats running for governor in Virginia and New Jersey are emphasizing cost-of-living issues and other concerns that continue to be top of mind for voters, and tying those issues to Trump. The election may provide insight into whether they can find an approach to taking on the president that resonates.
Are Trump’s policies backfiring?
Members of the climate protest group, Extinction Rebellion, spray paint anti-DOGE messages on the outside of a Tesla showroom on April 22, 2025 in New York City.
Trump’s aggressive second-term agenda has thrilled his supporters, but Democrats are hoping many voters see it as overreach.
The biggest test may be in Virginia, which is home to many federal workers impacted by the government shutdown and efforts by the Department of Government Efficiency to slash agencies. The shutdown will break the record for the longest in U.S. history if it extends past Election Day.
More: Could the federal shutdown and DOGE cuts tip Virginia’s governor’s race?
Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk with his son X Æ A-Xii join US President Donald Trump as he signs executive orders in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, February 11, 2025. Tech billionaire Elon Musk, who has been tapped by President Donald Trump to lead federal cost-cutting efforts, said the United States would go “bankrupt” without budget cuts. Musk leads the efforts under the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), and was speaking at the White House with Trump, who has in recent weeks unleashed a flurry of orders aimed at slashing federal spending.
More: Virginia Democrats advance plan to counter Trump-spawned redistricting in GOP states
Virginia elected a Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin, in 2021 and Trump halved his losing margin in the state between 2020 and 2024, hopeful signs for the GOP gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears. A strong showing by Democrats could signal broader discontent with the extent of the president’s efforts to transform government.
Shutdown politics are also factoring into the New Jersey governor’s race after Trump paused funding for a tunnel between New York and New Jersey.
Whither Democrats?
Democratic candidate for New York City Mayor, Zohran Mamdani, gestures to residents while campaigning in Manhattan’s Upper East Side neighborhood during early voting, in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2025.
The Democratic Party’s ideological divisions are on full display in the 2025 races, which feature more moderate candidates for governor in New Jersey and Virginia, along with a far-left front-runner for mayor of New York City.
Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani is leading in the New York mayoral race with promises of aggressive government intervention to bring down costs, prompting Trump to lash out and threaten to withhold funds from the city if he wins. Meanwhile, Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey are leaning on their backgrounds of government service, Spanberger in the CIA and Sherrill in the Navy, as they run for governor.
More: How Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill hope to redefine Democrats in Virginia and NJ
As the party continues to struggle with how to define itself in the Trump era, the 2025 races will be scrutinized to see what type of message and candidate profile connects with the party’s base and the broader electorate. The Democratic soul-searching will continue in the midterm primaries for House and Senate seats, and into the 2028 presidential primary, as the party looks for new leaders who can win.
What other races could be consequential?
Jay Jones, the Democrat running for attorney general in Virginia, shown here during a campaign stop in Petersburg on Oct. 2, 2025, said in a statement that he has reached out to former Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert over text messages he sent about shooting him.
While a handful of races will get the most attention, there are other contests around the country that could have national implications.
Detroit, Minneapolis, Seattle, Pittsburgh, Atlanta and other big, heavily Democratic cities are also voting for mayor at a time when Trump is battling with municipal leaders over deploying the National Guard for crime prevention. The winners could find themselves navigating the explosive issue of federal troops on their streets.
Pennsylvania voters will be asked whether they want to keep three state Supreme Court justices, all Democrats. Pennsylvania is a key swing state, and the makeup of its highest court could be critical in cases with national impact, such as election-related lawsuits. Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat who is up for reelection in 2026 and is viewed as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, is urging voters to retain the justices in a new ad.
Virginia and New Jersey also have legislative contests this year, and the Virginia attorney general’s race is attracting attention after the Democrat became embroiled in a texting scandal. Democrats control every lever of state government in New Jersey and are seeking the same in Virginia, which impacts everything from redistricting to potential pushback against the Trump administration.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: The 7 biggest questions hanging over Election Day 2025
