In many states this November, the presidential candidate who snags the winner’s share of electoral votes is unlikely to be a surprise.

But across seven swing states – stretching from the desert Southwest to the Upper Midwest and back down into the South – the outcome remains very much in play, and the 93 votes up for grabs are likely to decide who ultimately ends up in the White House come January: incumbent President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump.

What Is a Swing State?

A swing state, according to a by-the-book definition, is one that’s “considered to play a key role in the outcome of presidential elections” and where candidates of both the Democratic and Republican parties “have similar levels of support.” The group of swing states is often similar during each presidential election cycle, though factors like changing demographics and turnout can make a traditionally red or blue state turn purple. Georgia, for example, swung into the swing state category in the wake of Biden’s surprise victory there in 2020 and Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock’s election win in 2022.

What Are the 2024 Swing States?

Here are U.S. News’ seven swing states to watch for the 2024 election. Click through to learn more about each state and its significance.

Arizona

Arizona

How Arizona could sway the 2024 presidential election.

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The Grand Canyon State swinging from a Trump victory in 2016 to a narrow Biden win in 2020 bucked a decadeslong trend, as a Republican candidate had won the state in every other presidential election this century.

Arizona’s battleground status is a testament to its changing demographics, and immigration – always a polarizing issue, but especially so in 2024 – is a major talking point in the border state this year.

Georgia

ATLANTA, GA - JUNE 18: Children play in a fountain at Centennial Olympic Park during a Juneteenth celebration on June 18, 2022 in Atlanta, United States.Juneteenth, or Emancipation Day, commemorates the end of chattel slavery on June 19, 1865 in Galveston, Texas, in compliance with President Lincoln's 1863 Emancipation Proclamation. In 2021, U.S. President Joe Biden signed a law declaring Juneteenth a federal holiday. (Photo by Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images)

Georgia

How Georgia could sway the 2024 presidential election.

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Georgia is another example of how the group of swing states can vary.

Biden’s major victory there in 2020 marked the first time a Democratic presidential candidate had won the Peach State since Bill Clinton in 1992.

Black voter turnout and enthusiasm in 2020 played an important role in Biden’s win, and the voting bloc again could prove pivotal in November.

Michigan

HAMTRAMCK, MI - SEPTEMBER 10: An aerial view of the city of Hamtramck, Michigan, Sunday, September 10, 2023. (Photo by Salwan Georges/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

Michigan

How Michigan could sway the 2024 presidential election.

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The Great Lakes State has almost always gone Democratic in recent decades, but is also no stranger to being a battleground.

It’s one of three states – along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – that formed a “blue wall” for Biden in 2020, but Trump won each state over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Recent survey data indicates that the economy is of utmost importance to Michigan voters, and the state’s working class is a key group for both candidates to win over.

Nevada

LAS VEGAS, NV - AUGUST 13:  The Stratosphere is viewed from downtown on August 13, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Tourism in America's Sin City has rebounded from Covid-19 with record numbers of visitors filling the hotels, restaurants, and casinos. (Photo by George Rose/Getty Images)

Nevada

How Nevada could sway the 2024 presidential election.

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The fact that Nevada has the lowest number of electoral votes among the seven swing states shouldn’t minimize its importance in the presidential election.

Biden’s 2020 win marked the fourth consecutive victory by Democratic candidates in the Silver State, but the margin was relatively small that year and in 2016, when Clinton won it.

Though it’s fairly close to the southern border and more than 30% of its relatively diverse population is Hispanic, polling indicates the economy tops immigration as a key election issue in the state.

North Carolina

SOUTHPORT, NC - JULY 04: Children eat on a seawall after the annual Independence Day Parade on July 4, 2022 in Southport, North Carolina. The U.S. Declaration of Independence was signed on this day in 1776, marking 246 years since the nation's break from Great Britain.  The first recorded Independence Day celebration in Southport was in 1795. This year's festival marks the 227th year of Independence Day celebrations in Southport. (Photo by Allison Joyce/Getty Images)

North Carolina

How North Carolina could sway the 2024 presidential election.

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The Tar Heel State may “lean Republican,” according to a U.S. News analysis, but it’s still a definite swing state. Trump won North Carolina by just 1.3 percentage points in 2020.

Biden made the state the last stop on a post-State of the Union tour of swing states, and Democrats hope North Carolina will prove to be the Georgia of 2024.

Pennsylvania

Farmland in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania near the town of Bird-in-Hand on November 7, 2022 on the eve of the US midterm elections. - The county, located in the southeast of the state, is deeply conservative except for its one city and home to a sizable Amish population. (Photo by Branden EASTWOOD / AFP) (Photo by BRANDEN EASTWOOD/AFP via Getty Images)

Pennsylvania

How Pennsylvania could sway the 2024 presidential election.

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The Keystone State clinched the “blue wall” – and the presidency – for Biden, its native son, in 2020.

Trump’s win there in 2016, however, snapped a streak of Democratic candidates carrying the state, and Biden only won by 1.2 percentage points four years ago.

Its 19 electoral votes amount to the fifth-most overall and the highest number among swing states.

Wisconsin

DOOR COUNTY, WI - October 11:
People walk through Sister Bay in Door County, Wisconsin on October 11, 2023. The swing county, in the battleground state of Wisconsin, has backed every presidential election's winning candidate since 2000. However, the county's residents on both sides of the political aisle are tiring of politics altogether as the next election looms. (Photo by Carolyn Van Houten/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

Wisconsin

How Wisconsin could sway the 2024 presidential election.

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Alphabetically the last of the “blue wall” states, Wisconsin was once considered a reliably blue Rust Belt state until Trump eked out a victory there in 2016 and cemented its status as a battleground. Biden then flipped the script with his own narrow Badger State victory over the former president in 2020. Both of the main 2024 candidates were headed there in April, demonstrating the value of Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes.

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