The Nostradamus of U.S. presidential elections has predicted a winner when the country goes to the polls in November.
Pollsters will no doubt swing back and forth between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump as the race comes down to the wire, but Allan Lichtman has history on his side.
The American University history professor and former quiz champion has forecast the White House winner in almost every election since 1984. The exception was in 2000, when he picked Al Gore over George W. Bush, although Lichtman did claim his model was then based on the popular vote, which Gore narrowly won.
In 2016, he accurately predicted that Trump would overcome Hillary Clinton and was rewarded with a handwritten note from the winner saying. “GOOD CALL!”
Now 77, Lichtman put his system to the test with the 2024 candidates, and Trump won’t be sending him a congratulatory message this time.
“The Democrats will hold on to the White House and Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States,” the septuagenarian soothsayer told The New York Times.
His prediction relies on a “13-key” model he devised with Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok that he claims is “based on 120 years of presidential outcomes before then.”
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Each key is a category related to the presidency and depends largely on the performance of the party in power in the West Wing. Lichtman decides on a true or false answer to each “key.” For November’s ballot, “true” is good for Harris, and a “false” answer boosts Trump’s chances as the challenger.
Lichtman outlined his choices in a video for The New York Times.
The first key, “Midterm Gains,” turns for Trump, as Lichtman says in the video: “The Democrats did better than expected in 2022 but they still lost house seats, so the key is false.”
For the second key, “Incumbency,” Lichtman says: “Biden withdrew from the race, costing the Democrats this key. It is false. If Biden had stayed in, they would have salvaged this one key.”
Trump started well, but the third key, “Primary Contest,” turns the tide. “The Democrats finally got smart and united overwhelmingly behind Vice President Harris. So, the key is true,” says Lichtman.
The fourth key, “Third Party,” also goes to Harris. “RFK Jr. has dropped out of the race and no other third-party candidate is anywhere close to the 10 percent polling threshold needed to turn this key. It’s true,” he explains.
No. 5, “Short-Term Economy,” is also “true,” according to Lichtman, who says: “Look, despite all the loose talk about a so-called vibesession, the economy is not in recession.”
He says the next key, “Long-Term Economy,” is “clearly true,” adding: “Growth during the Biden term is far ahead of growth during the previous two terms.”
And No. 7, “Policy Change,” is another one for Harris. “Rejoining the Paris Accords on climate change, the CHIPS bill, the infrastructure bill, the inflation reduction and climate change bill” during the Biden administration makes it a no-brainer, he says.
Less clear is the “Social Unrest” key, but Lichtman goes for Harris. “There have been sporadic protests, but nothing approaching the massive, sustained social unrest needed to turn this key. So it’s true,” he says.
The next key, “White House Scandal,” is Lichtman’s favorite. “Republicans have been trying for years to pin a scandal on President Biden and come up empty. So the key is true,” he says.
But he’s not sold on the charisma of either candidate. “This is a very high threshold key,” he says. “You have to be a once-in-a-generation, broadly inspirational candidate.
“Harris has not met that standard” for the “Incumbent Charisma” key.
Trump doesn’t win the “Challenger Charisma” key, either. “Some people think Donald Trump is a god, but he only appeals to a narrow base. So that key is true,” says Lichtman.
That was enough for the White House sage to herald Harris as his winner. He admits the final two keys, “Foreign Policy Failure” and “Foreign Policy Success,” could flip, but even if they did, it would not be enough for Trump to return to Washington, D.C., in triumph.
While acknowledging it’s up to voters to choose in the fall, Lichtman insists: “The keys absolutely will work. They are the constant northern star of political prediction.”
Even the most skeptical observer will agree he has a 50 percent chance of getting it right for the 2024 presidential election, but the Harris campaign will no doubt be happy if the professor’s foresight helps unlock yet another accurate presidential prediction.
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