Final Oscar Predictions: Best Actor — Could Adrien Brody Pick Up His Second Statue or Will Timothée Chalamet be Considered ‘One of the Greats?’
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
More from Variety
Explore Awards Circuit Predictions Pages
Oscars | Emmys | Grammys | Tonys
CONCLAVE, Ralph Fiennes, 2024. © Focus Features / Courtesy Everett Collection
Best Actor commentary (Updated Feb. 26, 2025): One of the most significant moments of the SAG Awards was when Timothée Chalamet won the “A Complete Unknown” lead actor prize, making him the youngest actor ever to win the category. The victory disrupted the winning streak of current Oscar frontrunner Adrien Brody from “The Brutalist.” And the big question is, does Chalamet make history?
An interesting conundrum is that I didn’t find as many Chalamet members checking his name off as expected when speaking with voters.
Some suggested that those voting for “Dune: Part Two” in multiple categories are checking Chalamet’s name off. But I didn’t find as many that would convince me he’s about to pull it off. What I did see was a decent amount of Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) and especially Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”). I’d go as far as to consider that if Adrien Brody were to lose, it would happen in favor of Fiennes.
Brody has dominated this race, winning the Critics Choice, BAFTA, and Golden Globe for his role as a Hungarian architect in “The Brutalist.” But history has seen shocking upsets before. The last time he won, he did without a single precursor. Wouldn’t it be interesting to see if Fiennes would repeat the same trajectory? Or if Chalamet would be the first to do it with only a SAG win? Only the Academy decides.
Will Win: Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”)
Could Win: Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”)
Should Win: Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”)
Should Have Been Nominated: Sebastian Stan (“A Different Man”); John David Washington (“The Piano Lesson”); Misagh Zare (“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”)
See all Academy Award predictions
Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.
!function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
More Information (Oscars: Best Actor)
2024 category winner: Cillian Murphy — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
!function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
!function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.
Best of Variety
Sign up for Variety’s Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.
