When it comes to predicting the Oscars, significant attention is often given to major precursors like the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Screen Actors Guild, and BAFTA Awards. But what about the Movies for Grownups Awards?
Over the past decade, the Movies for Grownups Awards (recently rebranded as Movies for Grownups with AARP) has established itself as a quiet, yet statistically relevant, early prognosticator for the Academy Awards. Data collected since 2015 in the six main categories — Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Supporting Actor — demonstrates that 15 Movies for Grownups winners have gone on to claim Oscars, including lead actor Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) last year.
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Here are the recent contenders that initially prevailed at the Movies for Grownups Awards before claiming victory at the Oscars:
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Best Picture: Spotlight; Green Book
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Best Director: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water); Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog); Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
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Best Actress: Renée Zellweger (Judy); Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
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Best Actor: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour); Anthony Hopkins (The Father); Will Smith (King Richard); Brendan Fraser (The Whale); Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
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Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Fences); Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
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Best Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
The strongest correlation is in the Best Actor category, where the Movies for Grownups Awards correctly predicted five of the Academy’s last 10 champions. The five Oscar winners they missed — Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant), Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) — didn’t even receive nominations with AARP.
The two voting bodies don’t always align, especially when it comes to Best Picture. Over the past decade, only twice has MGA matched the Oscars: 2015’s Spotlight and 2018’s Green Book. Here’s a look at winners of both the Oscars and MGAs in each of the other eight years:
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2016: Moonlight at Oscars, Loving at MGA
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2017: The Shape of Water at Oscars, Star Wars: The Last Jedi at MGA
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2019: Parasite at Oscars, The Irishman at MGA
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2020: Nomadland at Oscars, The United States vs. Billie Holiday at MGA
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2021: CODA at Oscars, Belfast at MGA
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2022: Everything Everywhere All at Once at Oscars, Top Gun: Maverick at MGA
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2023: Oppenheimer at Oscars, Killers of the Flower Moon at MGA
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2024: Anora at Oscars, A Complete Unknown at MGA
Movies for Grownups Awards voters were likely feeling nostalgic in several of those years, as long-awaited sequels to Star Wars and Top Gun won the top prize. And biopics about folks the voters grew up with — singer Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown and blues singer Billie Holiday in The United States vs. Billie Holiday — also did well when compared to the Oscars.
Looking beyond the past decade, there is another trend that has emerged with Academy Award voting that syncs up with the Movies for Grownups. Beginning in the late 1990s up through the most recent awards cycle, there has been a notable upward shift in the ages of acting nominees competing for Oscars. Last year, for example, there were four times as many 50-plus Oscar acting nominees than there were 30 years ago.
Alan Cumming at the Movies for Grownup AwardsElyse Jankowski/Getty Images
Gold Derby has learned exclusively that Alan Cumming will announce the nominations for the 2026 Movies for Grownups Awards via Instagram and Facebook Live on Nov. 19 at 8 a.m. PT. Cumming will also host the annual awards ceremony, which will raise funds for AARP Foundation when it returns to the Beverly Wilshire on Jan. 10. Adam Sandler will receive the Career Achievement Honor.
Here is the group’s official language for how voting works: “Throughout the year, AARP editors and film critics seek out movies and TV series with compelling content that resonate with a mature audience and showcase 50-plus stars and/or created by 50-plus filmmakers. Our nominees and winners are the top movies for grownups made by tremendously talented grownups.”
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