After 3 brutal years of Russia-Ukraine war, resolution rests on shoulders of 3 men

As the top diplomats from the United States and Russia sat together last Tuesday in Saudi Arabia, an end to the Russian invasion appeared to be closer than ever — but also further than ever from a resolution that would satisfy Ukraine.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the leader of the U.S. emissaries, and his counterpart, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, talked about ending the war “as soon as possible.”

President Donald Trump “wants to stop the killing; the United States wants peace and is using its strength in the world to bring countries together,” the White House said following the meeting.

After three years of brutal and deadly fighting in Eastern Europe, many observers and allies would welcome an end to Russia’s full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine. But the terms of peace deal that would satisfy and include all parties have remained elusive.

MORE: Russia, Ukraine exchange major drone attacks on invasion anniversary

The war’s third year saw its expansion, both geographically and geopolitically. Ukraine pulled off its own high-stakes invasion into Russia. North Korea sent thousands of soldiers to aid its ally Russia. And support for Ukraine from the U.S. and Europe accelerated, including an authorization to use long-range American weapons to strike militarily strategic targets within Russia.

Ukraine and its leader, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, also this year continued seeking an end to the conflict, but it appeared last week that there now existed considerable daylight between their goals and those of the U.S. diplomats who were sitting in an ornate room in Saudi Arabia.

There was no Ukrainian delegation at that meeting, despite the White House’s pledge to find a path to peace “acceptable to all sides.”

Zelenskyy on Tuesday said that any “security guarantees must be robust and reliable.”

“Any other decision without such guarantees—such as a fragile ceasefire—would only serve as another deception by Russia and a prelude to a new Russian war against Ukraine or other European nations,” he said, following a conversation with the French president.

A turning tide in Washington

The vitriolic 2024 presidential election set the stage for Ukrainian disappointment, though Kyiv remained stoically optimistic – at least in public – throughout the contest.

On the campaign trail, Trump repeatedly hinted that Ukraine would be pressed to make political and territorial concessions as part of his peace plans.

While the Biden administration scrambled to ringfence military and economic aid earmarked for Kyiv, European allies sought to “Trump-proof” the NATO structures helping guide Ukraine’s defensive struggle.

For all his robust rhetorical and practical support for Kyiv, Biden consistently faced criticism suggesting he had been overcautious, particularly in his refusal to allow Ukraine to use advanced American-made weapons to hit targets deep inside Russia.

American aid, so the refrain in Ukraine went, was calculated to be enough for Ukraine to survive but not enough for it to win.

Trump’s decisive victory over Vice President Kamala Harris – who committed herself to continuing Biden’s “ironclad” backing of Kyiv – was twinned with a Republican sweep of Congress. Already more Ukraine-skeptic than their Democratic counterparts, the GOP’s 2025 class was more aligned with Trump’s “American First” foreign policy transactionalism than ever before.

While Kyiv sweated, the Kremlin appeared pleased. Putin lauded Trump as a “courageous man,” who secured a second term despite being “hounded from all sides,” the Russian leader said.

By February, Trump had dismissed Zelenskyy as a “dictator with no elections” and suggested that Ukraine “should have never started” the war — two false or misleading statements closely aligned with Russian disinformation narratives. The war began in February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. Zelenskyy said on Sunday he would step down if it meant peace for his country, adding he would also do so if it meant Ukraine would be granted NATO membership.

Vowing to “get our money back,” Trump’s administration began pushing Ukraine to sign a deal securing American access to hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Ukrainian mineral resources.

As Zelenskyy warned he would not “sell the state,” Trump declared on Truth Social, “Zelenskyy better move fast or he is not going to have a country left.”

Zelenskyy said on Sunday Ukraine had received a total of about $100 billion in support from the U.S. since the beginning of the war — not $500 billion, as claimed by Trump. The funds and equipment, he added, were given as grants, not as loans.

“I’m not going to acknowledge $500 billion, regardless of what anyone says, with all due respect to our partners,” Zelenskyy said. “I stand by this because it’s a true situation. Honestly, I’m not ready to fix even $100 billion. Let me explain why. We should not recognize grants as debts — whether we like it or not. I made agreements with Biden and with the U.S. Congress.”

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy — a research institute in Germany that tracks foreign aid to Ukraine — said the U.S. has contributed around $119 billion to Ukraine over three years of war. The majority — $67 billion — was in the form of military equipment.

Kyiv gains traction, launching surprise counteroffensive

As the third year of Russia’s invasion into Ukraine began, the Biden administration issued hundreds of “crippling” sanctions, which they said were designed to “ensure Putin pays an even steeper price for his aggression abroad and repression at home.”

What followed was a year of military escalations from both sides, with Moscow stepping up its aerial strikes within Ukraine, and Kyiv marching into a Russian border region, again subverting the expectations of analysts.

Russian missiles and drones struck cities and energy sites throughout Ukraine for much of the year – a seemingly endless morning terror that destroyed residential buildings in any number of cities, including Kyiv.

Eight people were killed and almost two dozen were injured in June when Russian missiles targeted Kryvyi Rih, Zelenskyy’s hometown.

“The time for compromises is over,” Zelenskyy said, speaking in Germany after that strike.

By late summer, Zelenskyy’s forces had begun their own counteroffensive into Kursk, a Russian border region, a surprise move that put Moscow on its back foot.

“Ukraine’s military objectives for the attack remain largely undisclosed,” Ben Barry, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, wrote at the time. “But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has spoken of creating a ‘buffer zone’, perhaps as a bargaining chip.”

North Korea sends reinforcements, as U.S. allows long-range strikes

Within months, allies of both Ukraine and Russia would make moves that expanded their exposure to the fighting – either through weapons or boots on the ground.

As the second year of the war began, Ukrainian forces had been under duress, fighting against an invasion that had more resources, troops and weapons.

Zelenskyy continued his calls for more Western weapons, including U.S.-made long-range weapons, which would allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia. He got his wish in November, when the White House approved American-made ATACMS missiles for strikes on select military targets within Russia, U.S. officials told ABC News at the time.

That shift in U.S. policy coincided with North Korea’s decision to send about 10,000 troops to Kursk to fight alongside the Russians, according to Western officials. Hundreds were killed in the fighting, the White House said.

It’s unclear how many Russian soldiers were killed in the fighting in Kursk – or elsewhere – because Russia doesn’t release such figures. But it appeared clear to some Western officials that the move to include North Korean troops was a sign of Putin’s weakened position.

“This is an indication that he may be even in more trouble than most people realize,” then-Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin III told reporters at the time.

Bloody war boils down to wills of three men

By this month, as the invasion’s anniversary approached, the conflict appeared to be boiling down to the wills of three leaders, two of which have been engaged in the struggle since day one.

Ukraine’s Zelenskyy and Russia’s Putin until last week seemed no closer to negotiations than they had been months or years earlier, despite the added pressure from Ukraine’s military.

Zelenskyy spent much of the last year pushing for deeper allied support, including longer-range weapons, along with leading the drive by his troops into Kursk. Those measures seemed to many observers to strengthen his hand if negotiations ever came to be.

MORE: Trump-Putin pressure puts Zelenskyy in focus on Russia war anniversary, insiders say

But the opening gambit by the United States and Russia in Saudi Arabia last week threw into doubt the value of those strategic moves against the invader. Ukraine also suffered losses throughout the year, with the official death toll rising to over 45,000, with many more injured, Zelenskyy said.

Russia has not released recent figures on its casualties, but Ukrainian military officials place them higher, saying total casualties, including injuries and deaths have reached 854,280 since the invasion began.

Rather than Ukraine forcing Russia into talks, Moscow appeared to be stepping around Kyiv, talking instead to its most powerful ally, which is now led by Trump.

MORE: Zelenskyy ‘proud’ of Ukraine as country marks 3rd anniversary of Russia’s war

“President Trump wants to stop the killing; the United States wants peace and is using its strength in the world to bring countries together,” Tammy Bruce, a State Department spokesperson, said after the sit down between Russian and American diplomats last week.

“President Trump is the only leader in the world who can get Ukraine and Russia to agree to that,” Bruce added.

ABC News’ Joe Simonetti, Patrick Reevell, Ian Pannell, Ellie Kaufman, Chris Boccia, Meredith Deliso, Shannon K. Kingston and Luis Martinez contributed to this report.

After 3 brutal years of Russia-Ukraine war, resolution rests on shoulders of 3 men originally appeared on abcnews.go.com