College football bowl season is coming to a close this week as we hit the Holiday Bowl.
Arizona faces SMU in a matchup that will oddly feature full teams, which has become a rarity in the college football world around this time of year.
Opt-outs aren’t a significant story in this game: offensive lineman Michael Wooten opted out and entered the transfer portal for Arizona, and tight end Keyan Burnett also entered the portal, though he’s a backup player for the Wildcats.
For SMU, DJ Warner opted out, a solid rotational edge rusher for the SMU Mustangs.
That’s about it in terms of opt-outs at the time of writing, as we head into the Holiday Bowl, where SMU is a 2.5-point underdog on bet365 Sportsbook.
Arizona vs. SMU prediction
My model doesn’t have much value on this game, projecting a 2.5 game spread in favor of Arizona, although some books are beginning to move toward SMU, with DraftKings moving the spread a bit.
Arizona has been very quiet about potential opt-outs in this game, so it’s possible there’s more to come on that front, and it’s possible that the betting markets get that information leaked before any announcements.
Regardless, Arizona was playing solid football before bowl season, winning five straight and losing only to ranked teams Houston and BYU in October.
SMU is coming off a loss to California, but prior to that, posted an impressive win over Miami in November while also beating Clemson.
SMU has a higher ceiling in my view, with the Mustangs coming in at No. 21 in yards per play (6.2) while Arizona is further down the list at 67 (5.4 YPP).
Betting on College Football?
Arizona does have a stronger defense (4.5 YPP, 11th best in the nation), but SMU is no slouch either, coming in at No. 38 (5.1 YPP).
Target SMU this weekend in a big spot at the Holiday Bowl.
THE PLAY: SMU +2.5 (-108, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
