At first glance, you’d think the betting line looks pretty wide for Sunday’s English Premier League matchup between first-place Arsenal and fifth-place Aston Villa. 

The Gunners are a -370 home favorite against a team that is just four spots and 11 points behind them in the standings.

That’s a smaller gap between Chelsea and Everton and the former is just a -140 favorite at home against the Toffees on Monday.

Let’s take a look at Sunday’s Arsenal vs. Aston Villa matchup (11:30 a.m. ET) and make a pick.

Arsenal vs. Aston Villa odds

Arsenal Aston Villa Draw Total
-370 +850 +500 o3.5 (+124)/u2.5 (-150)
Odds via FanDuel

Arsenal vs. Aston Villa prediction

Seasoned bettors know that standings and box scores rarely tell the full story.

So while Arsenal and Aston Villa appear like teams in Tier A and Tier B, respectively, that’s not actually the case. 

Arsenal is one of the best teams in the world at the moment and is, almost unequivocally, the best defensive side in all of footballdom. 

That’s a terrible matchup against a team like Aston Villa, who relies on its offensive prowess to cover up some significant defensive flaws. 

Villa currently ranks fourth in the Premier League in goals and is seventh in non-penalty expected goals, but they’ll certainly have issues generating against the Gunners, who top the table in essentially every defensive metric.

Things are just as concerning on the other end of the pitch for Villa, who rank 17th in the Premier League in preventing big scoring chances and 12th in expected goals conceded. 

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Arsenal vs. Aston Villa pick

Arsenal should have no issues finding the back of the net in this contest, and I trust their defense to allow them to pull off a rout in front of a raucous crowd on Sunday.

The Bet: Arsenal -2.5 (+190, DraftKings) 

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