Our NFL experts have their sights set on rookie phenom Jayden Daniels and All-Pro wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown for their Week 7 touchdown wagers.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Pictured: Washington Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels races down the field in NFL action.
Touchdown dances aren’t just reserved for the guys getting across the goal line.
Touchdown props allow NFL bettors to celebrate alongside their favorite players, which makes anytime touchdown and first touchdown odds among the most popular NFL player props bets every week.
If you think you know which players will strike pay dirt, you can bet on them to score a TD at any point in the game. And if you’re really locked in on who will get past the goal line first, you can pump up your payouts by betting the “first touchdown scorer” markets when you make your NFL picks.
First touchdown scorer predictions
Amon-Ra St. Brown: First TD (+900 at FanDuel)
Amon-Ra St. Brown is a good bet to break the plane first this week. The Lions’ No. 1 WR has found the end zone in three straight games as well as both clashes vs. the Vikings last year. Detroit QB Jared Goff will be throwing vs. the Vikings’ 30th-ranked defense by passing yards allowed per game, so the passing opportunities should be plentiful.
-Robert Criscola
Check back soon for more first touchdown scorer predictions from our Covers NFL experts.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Raheem Mostert: Anytime TD (+140 at bet365)
Miami is coming off the bye week, which means we get a full strength Raheem Mostert after he battled injuries to start the season. Mostert got a ton of touches in Week 5, running the ball 19 times and with DeVon Achane trying to clear concussion protocols, the Week 7 workload could be mostly Mostert’s.
He’s got a nose for the end zone (21 TDs in 2023), gets goal-line carries, and faces a Colts team among the worst red-zone defenses in the league.
-Jason Logan
Courtland Sutton: TD Anytime (+250 at FanDuel)
Courtland Sutton has been rookie QB Bo Nix’s top target, seeing 21 more passes his way than the next Broncos players and that favoritism rolls over to the red zone as well. Sutton has drawn nine red-zone targets in the first six games (tied for fifth most among WRs), catching three of those balls – two for touchdowns – including a 15-yard connection in the loss to the L.A. Chargers last Sunday.
Sutton isn’t just a threat when inside the 20-yard, however. He’s been able to make big plays for the Broncos, with a reception of at least 20-plus yards in five of his six outings. Nix is getting more comfortable throwing past the sticks and faces a NOLA defense that has been burned by the “home run”, sitting third in passes of 20-plus allowed (20) and tied for the most 40-plus passes allowed (5). Player projections for Sutton range from 0.25 to 0.4 touchdowns on TNF.
Check out our Broncos vs. Saints anytime touchdown picks for more predictions and analysis ahead of kickoff.
-Jason Logan
Mo Alie-Cox: Anytime TD (+450 at DraftKings)
Although most of Mo Alie-Cox’s impact has been felt blocking for Jonathan Taylor and the Indianapolis Colts running backs, the veteran tight end has seen an uptick in production with Joe Flacco at the helm — being targeted four times in each of his last two outings, compared to just three targets over his first four games with Anthony Richardson starting.
Cox found the end zone in Week 5 against Jacksonville, and at 6-foot-5, the former VCU basketball star will be a fantastic red-zone option for Flacco on Sunday. He’s set to face a Miami Dolphins defense that ranks 30th in PFF linebacker coverage against opposing tight ends, with starting safeties Jevon Holland and Jordan Poyer also listed as questionable.
-Trevor Knapp
Check back soon for more anytime touchdown scorer predictions.
Multiple TD scorer bets
Jayden Daniels: 2+ TDs (+625 at FanDuel)
Washington (-8) takes on Carolina with a total of 51.5 points, which means bookmakers believe the Commanders will do the lion’s share of the scoring. Jayden Daniels has already made himself one of the most dangerous players in the league in just six games, breaking off four touchdown runs.
Washington is taking on an injury-plagued Panthers defense owning the second worst red zone defense and with RB1 Brian Robinson questionable, the goal line carries could come from the dual-threat rookie QB. Daniels’ player projections (0.7 TDs) are already pointing toward pay dirt, so what’s one more score from the NFL highest-scoring offense versus its 32nd-ranked defense?
-Jason Logan
What is a first touchdown scorer bet?
A first touchdown scorer bet involves wagering on which player will score the first touchdown in a specific NFL game. This type of bet can be placed on any player who is eligible to score, and typically focuses on running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks.
If the player you choose scores the first touchdown, you win the bet; if not, you lose. The odds for these bets can vary based on the player’s likelihood to score first, which is influenced by factors like their position, recent performance, and the team’s offensive strategy and efficiency.
What is an anytime touchdown scorer bet?
An anytime touchdown bet involves wagering on whether a specific player will score a touchdown at any point during the game, not just the first TD.
For example, if you bet on Ravens running back Derrick Henry to score an anytime touchdown and he finds the end zone at any time during the game, you win the bet. This type of bet is popular because it allows for more scoring opportunities, and you can often choose players based on advantageous matchups. The odds can vary based on the player’s scoring potential and the strength of the team’s offensive scheme.
How are touchdown prop odds determined in NFL betting?
Here are some of the key factors oddsmakers consider when setting touchdown prop odds:
- Player performance: Historical data on a player’s scoring ability, including past touchdowns, carries, and target share, is crucial.
- Matchup analysis: The opposing defense’s strengths and weaknesses are evaluated, including how well they defend against specific positions.
- Injury reports: Injuries to key players can impact a player’s likelihood of scoring. Check out our NFL Injuries page to stay up to date before making your wager.
- Game script: Oddsmakers consider potential game scenarios, such as whether a team is expected to be ahead or behind and how that may impact their strategy.
- Public sentiment: Betting patterns and public perception can also sway odds. If a player is very popular or a big favorite, sportsbooks may adjust their odds to mitigate risk. You can check out our Covers NFL picks consensus to see how the public is leaning.
- Statistical models: Sportsbook use advanced analytics and data-driven models to help refine their lines.
NFL TD Prop Betting FAQ
Yes, both running touchdowns and receiving touchdowns count for both the first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown bets. So, if a running back scores a touchdown by running the ball or a wide receiver scores by catching a pass, it will count for your bet in either category. As long as the player you bet on is the one who scores, you win!
Yes, an interception return for a touchdown counts as a touchdown in anytime touchdown betting props. If you bet on a defensive player to score an anytime touchdown and they return an interception for a touchdown, your bet would win. This also applies to fumble recoveries returned for touchdowns. However, it’s important to check the specific rules of the sportsbook, as they can vary.
On an average Sunday of NFL football, six to seven touchdowns are typically scored per game. Since there are usually 12 to 16 games played, that can add up to 70 to 100 total touchdowns across the league.
Yes, an NFL center can score a touchdown, though it’s quite rare. Centers primarily focus on snapping the ball and blocking, but they can score through a fumble recovery, a passing play if they are deemed eligible before the play, and a fake play.
Yes, you can parlay touchdown props in NFL betting. A parlay involves combining multiple bets into one wager, and if all selections win, the payout can be much higher than placing each bet individually. For instance, you can parlay bets on multiple players to score touchdowns in the same game, but keep in mind that all bets in the parlay must win for you to receive a payout.
