The Montreal Canadiens are one win away from putting the finishing touches on a feel-good playoff berth.
The Habs were one of the biggest long shots in the NHL to make the playoffs before the season began at +700 odds, but a stellar run down the stretch has them on the brink.
Even better news?
Montreal is a -300 favorite to get the job done against the Chicago Blackhawks on Monday night.
Blackhawks vs. Canadiens prediction
The Canadiens have looked like they were dead in the water a number of times this season.
Montreal was in last place in the Atlantic Division in December, it was 16/1 to make the playoffs at the break for the 4 Nations Face-Off and it endured a five-game winless streak at the end of March.
But the Habs never quit, while the teams around them in the playoff race did.
That was enough for Montreal to surge ahead of the chasing pack, and a six-game heater at the start of April pushed the Habs into the pole position for the last wild-card spot.
Betting on the NHL?
Just getting into this position is a massive win for the young Canadiens, but it must be pointed out that their statistical profile suggests that are perhaps a little more lucky than good right now.
Montreal is 6-3-1 in its last 10 games with a +2 goal differential, but its expected goal difference in that span sits at -9.
The Habs have been clinical in front of goal, and their goalies have been terrific of late, but those numbers will likely catch up with them at some point.
Blackhawks vs. Canadiens pick
The Habs are much better than the Blackhawks and deserve to be a chunky favorite Monday night, but this number is too wide.
Bookmakers are clearly charging a must-win tax on the Habs, who are sitting as high as -300 at some sportsbooks.
That number seems a bit rich considering the Habs’ numbers of late, even if they’re the only team in this matchup with anything on the line.
The Blackhawks have been dreadful for most of the season and haven’t played a meaningful game in months, but they’ll relish the opportunity to spoil the party at one of hockey’s most hallowed grounds.
The Play: Blackhawks moneyline (+240, bet365)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
