PAPILLION, Neb. — On an unseasonably warm October evening in eastern Nebraska on Saturday, with only 17 days until the 2024 presidential election, both the Harris and Trump campaigns descended upon the Cornhusker State to deliver a similar message to its 2nd Congressional District: their votes could singularly decide the outcome of the race.
Nebraska is one of two states — Maine is the other — that doesn’t award Electoral College votes on a winner-take-all basis. The winner of the popular vote in the state gets two votes and the other three are divided by the winner in each of the state’s congressional districts.
On Saturday, Democratic vice presidential nominee and Nebraska native son Tim Walz held a 1,400-person rally in the 2nd District — the Democratic-leaning area around Omaha, or “blue dot” — that could deliver the Kamala Harris-Walz ticket one decisive Electoral College vote, despite recent efforts from Donald Trump and other Republicans to make the historically red state switch to winner-take-all that would likely hand the former president all of the state’s votes.
Democratic vice presidential nominee Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz speaks during a campaign rally, Oct. 19, 2024, in Papillion, Neb.
Charlie Neibergall/AP
“And I have to tell you, I think all of you know this, this thing is going to be close… the ‘Blue Wall’ is going to hold across the north of America — Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota,” Walz said, indicating his confidence in winning those industrial states that proved critical in getting President Joe Biden across the 270 Electoral College vote threshold to win the presidency in 2020.
“But you do the math,” Walz added, counting the states again. “269 — one dot makes a difference. Look — ‘Blue Dot,’ you’re inspiring the rest of the country.”
“Omaha, put us over the top,” Walz concluded his rally on Saturday.
Across town, former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and former Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard campaigned for former President Donald Trump, also telling the crowd in the state’s 2nd Congressional District just how influential their ballots could be in November.
Kennedy alerted a different 1,400-person audience in a downtown Hilton ballroom that their district was voting in the “most critical election in this country.”
“We could still end up 269 to 269 [electoral votes]… Your votes are the most important votes in the United States today, and that’s why we need to win that state,” he said.
Former Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks to attendees during a campaign rally at Brazos Hall on May 13, 2024 in Austin, Texas.
Brandon Bell/Getty Images, FILE
The possibility that Trump and Harris tie at 269-269 — where neither hits the 270 electoral votes required to win the presidency — isn’t out of the question in a race forecasted by pundits and pollsters to be close.
On Saturday, Kennedy laid out a hypothetical election night scenario that he said was based on internal polling he conducted while he was a candidate, in which Harris wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Trump wins North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona.
In that scenario, there would be 269- 269 tie, he said. Kennedy highlighted then that one Electoral College vote in a state like Nebraska or Maine could push one candidate over the top.
Gabbard encouraged the audience to “convince” other voters in the district to vote for Trump.
“You could be that swing district that will either save our country or continue us down this path towards darkness and destruction,” she said. “I want you to think about how close these elections can be, and this single congressional district in particular.”
“So as you leave here tonight, I really hope you take the time to go through the contacts that you have in your phone or your Facebook friends or your coworkers, and seriously, go down name by name, and think about who you can reach out to, that you can maybe convince them about why they should vote for President Trump in this election,” Gabbard added.
According to the Harris campaign, it has been on the ground in the district for “months,” holding weekly phone banking and canvass events out of three field offices in Omaha. In the last four days, the campaign said 100 Harris for Nebraska volunteers have spoken to more than 6,400 voters in the district.
“We are, we’re just like this tiny, little blue dot in this red state, we but we have a voice, and we want to be heard, and especially in this election, this election is so important,” Meg Hawks, a Democrat from Omaha told ABC News at Walz’s rally.
“The blue dot has made our city and our state even just such a joyful place, and we have,” she said. “I personally feel joyful about this, I feel joyful about Tim Walz coming from Nebraska, and joyful about Kamala Harris’ policies.”
All eyes on Nebraska as Senate, House races heat up
Nebraska has been a hot topic nationally many times this cycle — first for the possibility it might change its Electoral College process into one more favorable to Trump and taking away power from the “Blue Dot,” and now for its increasingly competitive House and Senate races that could determine the balance of power in both chambers.
There is no Democrat running for Senate in Nebraska but independent Dan Osborn is being quietly (and sometimes not so quietly) backed by the party over incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer. Walz didn’t mention the Senate race or its candidates at his rally on Saturday, but he did boost state Rep. Tony Vargas, who is running as a Democrat in the 2nd District.
“We’re going to need a Congress[member] that actually knows what work looks like for the American people — send Tony Vargas there and put Democrats in charge,” Walz said.
At the Hilton, Kennedy and Gabbard did not once mention either the Senate or congressional races in the district. But Democratic attendees at Walz’s rally on Saturday were buzzing about Senate race.
“I’m very cautiously optimistic that Dan Osborn will win. He’s getting momentum and I think people are tired by what she has not done, she really doesn’t have anything to show,” said Monica Kruger, a rally attendee from Omaha.
Judy Sterba, an Omahan who was also at the rally, said she was working hard to get both Vargas and Osborne to Washington.
“I have yard signs and I write postcards all over the country to get people to register to vote. So I’m giving money all the time to everybody. I think it’s really important, and I really want Tony Vargas to win, and Dan Osborne. I like the candidate, and I really hate Deb for sure. So that’s a really good reason for me,” she said, noting that Senate control was “absolutely” a reason she was also supporting Osborn.
“[Osborne’s] got a real good shot, a real good shot,” she said, noting his rapid rise over the past few months.
“I was at Jazz on the Green, which is a summer music festival, probably in like July. Somebody came around saying, ‘Can you sign for Dan Osborne to get on the ballot?’ I’m like, ‘Seriously, this late?’ This guy has a chance, and he’s been working his ass off. He’s got a ton of support,” she said.
