No game on Friday features a tighter spread than Mississippi State vs. Baylor.
The bookies have these two teams separated by one point, with the No. 8 Bulldogs sitting as the nominal favorite at Caesars Sportsbook.
In other words, flip a coin.
The No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchups often are the toughest to handicap, but we’ll do our best to find some betting value on this SEC vs. Big 12 showdown.
More on that, plus an exclusive promo code from the folks at Caesars Sportsbook, can be found below.
Use this Caesars Sportsbook promo code POSTNEWSBG1 which offers bettors who wager at least $1 with $150 in bonus bets, should their bet win.
Mississippi State vs. Baylor betting preview
It really does feel like splitting hairs in this matchup. Not only are these two teams power rated within a whisker of one another by KenPom and BartTorvik, but they have similar statistical profiles, too.
KenPom ranks Baylor as his 16th-best offense, but Mississippi State is right there at 23rd.
On defense, the edge flips to the Bulldogs as the 45th-best unit in the country, but Baylor is only 12 spots back.
Fine margins on both sides of the ball.
Betting on College Basketball?
Mississippi State vs. Baylor pick
Perhaps the best way to find value on this game is to go completely contrarian. Everybody – including the bookies – expects this to be a tight contest, with very little separating these two sides.
That means that derivative bets and props will all be correlated to this being a close contest, and most of the money will pile in with that game-script in mind.
Instead of doing that, shrewd bettors can go against the grain by backing one of these sides to win in a rout, knowing that the prices on those bets will be inflated because very few punters will go this route.
KenPom and BartTorvik have Baylor power rated slightly better than Mississippi State, so I’ll have a flutter on the Bears to cover the alternate spread of -9.5 at +297 odds at Caesars Sportsbook.
Pick: Baylor -9.5 +297 (Caesars)
Think that Mississippi State is the team to target? Go ahead and fade this pick. Be sure to use the code POSTNEWSBG1 to wager at least $1, and if your bet wins you will be rewarded with $150 in bonus bets.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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