Donald Trump has performed a remarkable political comeback and created a little piece of history by winning the 2024 presidential election.
After his win over Kamala Harris, Trump became the first president since Grover Cleveland in 1892 to be elected to a non-consecutive second term as president.
Cleveland first won the presidency in 1884, before losing in 1888 and then returning four years later. Trump has followed a similar path, winning in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, then suffering defeat to Joe Biden four years later, before his comeback success this week.
Throughout history, presidents have largely been restricted to two terms in office, but Trump’s victory after a four-year gap has sent political analysts scrabbling through the US constitution.
They have been trying to answer the question on the lips of both Republican and Democrat voters – and the world: would Trump, who would then be 82, be able to stand for election once more in four years’ time?
Can Trump run again in 2028?
The short answer is no, thanks to the 22nd Amendment to the US constitution.
What is the 22nd Amendment?
Under the 22nd Amendment to United States Constitution, presidents are barred from being elected to more than two four-year terms in office.
The fact that Trump’s two terms will be non-consecutive makes no difference – as the law stands, he cannot be elected president more than twice.
Could Trump have run again if he had lost to Harris?
Had Trump been defeated by Harris this week, there would have been nothing legally to stop him running again for the presidency in 2028.
However, if he had lost, it is unlikely that Trump would have run again, judging from his own comments.
In September, when asked if he would run in four years if he lost this time round, he told the Sinclair Media Group: “No, I don’t. I think that will be it. I don’t see that at all.”
But he added: “Hopefully, we’re going to be very successful.”
But have any US presidents served more than two terms?
There is only one president who has served more than two terms: Franklin Delano Roosevelt. The 22nd Amendment came in after his presidency.
Hailed as one of the country’s greatest ever presidents, FDR won four terms, and served from 1933 until his death in 1945.
In his first two terms, he led the US out of the Great Depression, while his third and fourth stints were dominated by the country’s involvement in the Second World War.
Roosevelt and his supporters argued that a time of huge upheaval both at home and abroad, it was necessary that he continued in the Oval Office to provide the country with some kind of political stability.
The 22nd Amendment
Roosevelt’s four terms led to calls for a limit to be place on the time that presidents could serve, and, as a result, the 22nd Amendment to the US Constitution was approved by Congress in 1947 and ratified in 1951.
It reads: “No person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice, and no person who has held the office of president, or acted as president, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected president shall be elected to the office of the president more than once.”
What about loopholes? Could Trump change the rules?
This is where things could get complicated and somewhat outlandish. While, on the face of it, the 22nd Amendment blocks anyone from serving three terms as president, the devil is, as always, in the detail.
Firstly, to make it possible to be elected again in 2028, Trump or his supporters would have to change the Constitution.
This is wildly unlikely, as repealing the 22nd Amendment would have to be passed with two-thirds majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, the two bodies that make up the US Congress, and then ratified by three quarters of the 50 states that make up the US.
But a constitutional change may not be necessary, as the 22nd Amendment clearly states that no person can be “elected” president more than twice.
In theory, this could pave the way for Trump to be simply appointed president by the House of Representatives, but such a move has never been attempted and is considered beyond the realms of possibility by political analysts, although it was discussed as far back as 1960, when former secretary of state Dean Acheson said it was “more unlikely than unconstitutional”.
Technically, Trump has another (albeit far-fetched) option if he wants to get around the 22nd Amendment and serve a third term – he could go on a joint ticket as vice president, then take over from the successful running mate after they are elected, should they die, resign or be impeached and removed from office.
Has anyone attempted to repeal the 22nd Amendment before?
Since it was ratified, the 22nd Amendment has always had its critics, with Harry Truman, the president in the White House when it came into force, later calling it “stupid”.
Before the end of his presidency in January 1989, two-termer Ronald Reagan said he would support the amendment’s repeal, saying it infringed on voters’ democratic rights.
In an interview with Rolling Stone in 2000 at the end of his two terms, Bill Clinton said the law should only limit presidents to two consecutive terms, allowing them to return to the Oval Office at a later date. “I probably would have run again,” said Clinton.
The first attempt to repeal the 22nd Amendment was launched in 1956, and dozens more have been made since, with Democrat José E. Serrano introducing nine resolutions to do so between 1997 and 2013, all of which were unsuccessful.
What has Trump said about running again in 2028?
Trump has repeatedly hinted or explicitly stated that he would like to serve a third term as president.
Back in June 2019, during his first term, he shared a mocked up video of a Time Magazine cover which showed his name on campaign posters every four years from 2024 until 2048… and then beyond.
During this year’s campaign, Trump raised the possibility during a speech to the National Rifle Association in May, saying: “You know, FDR 16 years – almost 16 years – he was four terms. I don’t know, are we going to be considered three-term? Or two-term?”
However, in an interview with Time in April, he debunked the idea of three terms, saying: “I wouldn’t be in favour of it at all. I intend to serve four years and do a great job.”
But in July, Trump told a group of Christian supporters in West Palm Beach, Florida, that they wouldn’t have to vote again after this election.
He said: “Get out – you gotta get out and vote. In four years, you don’t have to vote again. We’ll have it fixed so good, you’re not gonna have to vote.”
