The lengthy, 82-game NBA regular season certainly has its lulls and dud games, but it also occasionally provides high-profile matchups that generate maximum interest. On Thursday, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers, the top seeds in each conference, square off for the second time in an eight-day span.
OKC is a three-point favorite one week after losing in Cleveland and seeing its 15-game win streak snapped.
The Thunder own the NBA’s best record against the spread (ATS) at 27-9-3. A cover percentage of .750 is absurdly high. By comparison, the single-season top mark over the past decade is the Memphis Grizzlies at .628 in the 2021-22 season.
Cavaliers vs. Thunder odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cavaliers | +1.5 (-112) | +105 | Over 232.5 (-110) |
| Thunder | -1.5 (-108) | -125 | Under 232.5 (-110) |
Cavaliers vs. Thunder prediction
7:30 p.m. ET, TNT
The Cavs are outperforming expectations at a similar rate with a 27-12 ATS record, which is .692. For teams with the league’s two best overall records to also have the two best cover percentages is extremely rare.
“Obviously, both teams are very talented and it speaks to coaching and their systems bringing value to the point spread,” professional bettor Erin Rynning told Only Players via text message, also expressing that he’s likely passing on the game. “There are easier fish to catch than this game. But I lean first half Over 120 or so.”
I’m backing the Thunder and laying the points. Both teams are absolute forces, but I favor Oklahoma City’s desperation and focus, given it lost to Cleveland last week. Some may see that as a flimsy angle but those factors typically are difference-makers in a long season.
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“Thunder’s resume is a bit stronger of late with convincing wins against the Knicks twice, Celtics and Grizzlies. Meanwhile, the Cavs beat the Pacers without Tyrese Haliburton and the Mavs without Kyrie [Irving] and Luka [Doncic],” Rynning said.
Rynning backed Over 231 in last week’s meeting and got 84 points in the third quarter to cash in a 129-122 Cleveland home win. I expect a lower-scoring rematch, but not enough to wager on the total.
PICK: Thunder -1.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
