If the Kansas City Chiefs want to return to the Super Bowl, they will have to win a second game as a road underdog.
After winning in Orchard Park as a road underdog, the Chiefs opened as 3.5-point underdogs at BetMGM Sportsbook against the Baltimore Ravens and Lamar Jackson for Sunday’s AFC Championship game.
The total comes in at 44.5.
This will be Patrick Mahomes’ second road playoff game in his NFL career, the first being a 27-24 divisional-round victory on Jan. 21 against the Bills thanks to a late Tyler Bass missed field goal that would have tied the game.
Provided there is no line flip, Sunday’s game will be the sixth time Mahomes is an underdog of at least three points.
He is 5-0 against the spread (ATS) in his career at this price, and is now 9-1-1 ATS as an underdog and 8-3 straight-up, according to Ben Fawkes.
Of some potential concern for the Chiefs is Mahomes’ regular-season stats against man coverage.
Mahomes was in the bottom half in QBR against man coverage, while Baltimore played the sixth-most man coverage in the NFL in 2023.
They allowed the fifth-lowest QBR to opposing quarterbacks against man coverage.
But Mahomes did play a sparkling game in Sunday’s contest, throwing for 215 yards and two touchdowns, while running back Isiah Pacheco ran for 97 yards and one touchdown.
If you’re looking at a Chiefs moneyline bet, they are +145 to beat the Ravens outright and reach the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five years.
Chiefs vs. Ravens odds
|Chiefs +3.5 (-120)
Ravens -3.5 (+100)
|Over 44.5 (-110)
Under 44.5 (-110)
FTN Fantasy’s Aaron Schatz pointed out that while the score was close, the Chiefs truly dominated the Bills, averaging 7.7 yards per play vs. 4.7 yards per play for the Bills.
Between the Mecole Hardman fumble at the 1-yard line and a few lucky non-turnovers for the Bills, Buffalo was fortunate — until Bass kicked — this game was close.
Betting on the NFL?
Had a few more bounces gone the Chiefs’ way, the spread against the Ravens might not be sitting at 3.5.
But Kansas City will again have doubters as it faces the Ravens for the right to go to Super Bowl 2024.
PICK: Ravens -3.5 (+100, BetMGM)