Despite finishing 10-3 and beating Wisconsin in the ReliaQuest Bowl, LSU’s 2023 season was disappointing, considering the Tigers were a darkhorse national championship contender.
The Tigers are projected to be one of the best teams in the SEC this season.
They rank fifth in odds to win the conference at 10/1 on FanDuel.
They’re also tied for the seventh-shortest odds (18/1) to win the national championship.
Let’s take a look at LSU’s roster and schedule to find out if the Tigers can compete for a conference or national title this fall:
Offensive outlook
Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. are all off to the NFL.
That trio led an offense that scored 45.5 points per game, the most in the country, and replacing them won’t be easy, especially with offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock off to Notre Dame.
Redshirt junior Garrett Nussmeier (18/1 to win the Heisman) has been waiting for an opportunity to start at LSU for three years.
He’ll rely heavily on TE Mason Taylor, who should be poised for a more prominent role. CJ Daniels was a huge addition in the transfer portal from Liberty.
Continuity along the offensive line provides structure for the offense, with four starters from last season returning.
Will Campbell highlights the group as an expected first-round pick at left tackle.
The line will create holes for graduate running back Josh Williams, returning for his sixth season at LSU.
Defensive outlook
While LSU’s offense flourished last year, the defense lagged, ranking outside the top 100 in FEI and finishing drives.
Brian Kelly hired Blake Baker to help resolve those issues after Baker led Missouri to a successful defensive campaign last year (top 30 in points per game allowed).
Still just 19 years old, former super recruit Harold Perkins’ potential is limitless.
He’s expected to move from middle linebacker to a role that puts him outside the tackle box more often, allowing him to make plays all over the field.
Expect the Tigers to embrace more press coverage concepts as they look to get physical and aggressive in Baker’s scheme.
Freshman PJ Woodland, who has been rocketing up the depth chart during the offseason, should thrive.
He and sophomore Ashton Stamps will be relied upon to boost the production of a secondary that ranked 92nd in coverage last year, per PFF.
Schedule analysis
LSU starts its season in a neutral-site game against a USC team that will be a live underdog.
The Trojans have tons of talent at wide receiver to test an inexperienced LSU secondary.
I’m bullish on Miller Moss maintaining offensive consistency after Caleb Williams’ departure.
The Tigers don’t play Texas or Georgia, but road games against Texas A&M and Florida will test their mettle.
Home games against Ole Miss and Alabama should be coin-toss affairs that will go a long way in deciding who wins the conference.
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Final verdict
LSU’s defense has to improve because the offense will likely take a step back.
Regardless of how you feel about Nussmeier’s chances to succeed, losing Daniels, Nabers, Thomas and Denbrock is a ton to overcome in one season.
The offensive line will be one of the best in the country, but this team’s explosiveness will inevitably decline.
Defensively, it’s fair to expect some improvement under Baker, but how much?
Perkins should excel in his new role, but the Tigers still have a raw secondary and two starting edge rushers who combined for just 4.5 sacks last fall.
It’s difficult to find 10 wins on this schedule, and if USC pulls off the upset in Week 1, things get very dicey for the Tigers right off the bat.
Bet LSU under 9.5 wins with plenty of opportunities to hedge over the back half of the schedule.
Recommendations: USC +6.5 (-115) in Week 1 and LSU Under 9.5 wins (-170).
