College football predictions, picks: Akron-Kent State, Central Michigan-Western Michigan, more

Mid-week college football MACtion continues in Week 13 with three games Tuesday.

Here’s how I’d bet on all three contests.

Akron vs. Kent State prediction

(7 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network)

The Wagon Wheel series resumes Tuesday between the two bottom feeders in the MAC.

Akron sits at 2-8 this season, but an 0-10 Kent State team is still bad enough to catch 10 points at home.

The Golden Flashes have the worst offense in the FBS by Success Rate, but the Zips don’t grade out much better, ranking 112th in success rate and 129th in EPA per Play.

If there were ever a spot to catch the falling knife with Kent State, it would be this one.

However, there have been no “flashes” of life lately — they’ve lost their last four games by 21-plus points in conference play.

With wind and rain in the forecast at Dix Stadium, the only play I’d consider would be the Under.

Pick: Lean Under 49 Points (-110, Fanatics)

Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan prediction

(7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

I attempted to back the Chippewas against Toledo last week and Central Michigan was competitive from a yardage standpoint, only being out-gained by 63 yards.

However, five turnovers gave the Rockets consistent short fields, so that’s a misleading number.

With Central Michigan eliminated from bowl eligibility, the Chips are playing for pride against their in-state rival.

The Broncos’ offense has a huge advantage in this matchup, ranking in the top 30 in both EPA per Pass and EPA per Rush. Meanwhile, the Chips rank outside the top 100 in defensive points per drive allowed.

After two tough matchups against the Northern Illinois and Bowling Green defenses, expect a bounce-back showing for Hayden Wolff, Jalen Buckley and Co.

Pick: Lean Western Michigan Team Total Over 30.5 (-110, BetMGM)

Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH) prediction

(7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Miami (OH) is 5-1 in conference play, tied with Bowling Green and Ohio at the top of the MAC.

The RedHawks are currently second in MAC odds at +320 (FanDuel).

Northern Illinois can’t reach the conference title game, but it will look to play spoiler Tuesday.

The Huskies were a clear buy team heading into MAC play. They bagged one of the biggest upset wins of the season over Notre Dame. Still, injuries to quarterback Ethan Hampton, running back Antario Brown, and wide receiver Trayvon Rudolph hurt the offense for a stretch.

The offense is finally healthy and poised for success against a Miami defense that lost starting cornerback Mychal Yharbrough for the season.

Betting on College Football?

The Miami offense is relatively one-dimensional — the RedHawks rank 49th in Pass Success Rate but just 123rd in Rush Success Rate. The offense will entirely be on the shoulders of veteran quarterback Brett Gabbert against an NIU defense ranked ninth in EPA per Pass allowed and second in third-down Success Rate.

Miami’s offensive line has struggled to hold up, ranking 109th in PFF’s Pass Blocking grades, and the RedHawks lack standout explosiveness at the wide receiver position.

All four of the Huskies’ losses have come by one possession this season, and I’d argue they’re the better team on both sides of the ball in this matchup. I’m looking to back the road dogs here, especially with a home-field advantage not worth much in MAC play.

I found a Northern Illinois +3 at -120 juice, and I’m comfortable paying ten cents for the half-point here. If you can’t get access to that line, I’d still back the Huskies at +2.5 or better.

Pick: Bet Northern Illinois +2.5 (-110, ESPN BET)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.