Critics Choice Noms Analysis: Feinberg’s 5 Biggest Takeaways

Thursday morning’s announcement of the film nominees for the 30th Critics Choice Awards, which will take place on Jan. 12, 2025, confirmed something that I’ve long suspected to be the case: there are now six titles that are all but certain to land among the 10 best picture Oscar nominees, based on the fact that they have shown up virtually everywhere that matters so far — including, but not limited to, on the AFI’s top 10 list, in one of the two best picture Golden Globe categories and now in the Critics Choice best picture race.

They are, in order of how they performed with the roughly 500 voting members of the Critics Choice Association (of which I am one): Focus’ Conclave and Universal’s Wicked (which led the CC field with 11 noms each); Netflix’s Emilia Pérez and Warners’ Dune: Part Two (10 noms each); A24’s The Brutalist (seven); and Neon’s Anora (five). Each also received directing and screenplay noms. All but Dune: Part Two received at least one acting nom. And all but The Brutalist and Dune: Part Two received acting ensemble noms.

What else did we learn Thursday?

1. The Substance and Nickel Boys are surging across the board

Neither MUBI’s The Substance nor Amazon/MGM’s Nickel Boys are for everyone — but, it turns out, they are for enough people to have performed very strongly, of late, including Thursday.

The Substance, on the heels of Golden Globe noms for best picture, director (Coralie Fargeat), screenplay (Fargeat), actress (Demi Moore) and supporting actress (Margaret Qualley), landed CC noms in all of those same categories, plus hair/makeup and visual effects. I’ve always felt that Moore stood a strong shot at an Oscar nom — and maybe even a win — for her tour de force performance, but heading into this week, the film, Fargeat and Qualley were widely regarded as mid to long shots. They now have to be seen as likely Oscar nominees, or at least right on the bubble of noms.

Nickel Boys, meanwhile, came into the CC noms having netted only one GG nom — albeit for best picture — but it also made the AFI’s top 10 list, was nominated for the best feature Spirit Award and had performed particularly well with critics groups. (Among other recognition, RaMell Ross won the best director Gotham and New York Film Critics Circle awards; Jomo Fray was awarded best cinematography NYFCC and LA Film Critics Association awards; and Nicholas Monsour won LAFCA’s best editing award.) So it wasn’t a shock, but was still notable, to see just how well it did Thursday — namely, noms for picture, director, supporting actress (Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor), adapted screenplay (Ross) and cinematography.

All of the aforementioned recognition is resulting in these films being increasingly prioritized by Academy members as they weigh which films to watch before they vote for Oscar shortlists in 10 categories (ballots are due Friday) and for actual nominations (voting will run Jan. 8-Jan. 12, 2025).

2. A Complete Unknown and Sing Sing look here to stay

The last of this season’s big awards hopefuls to screen for voters was Searchlight’s A Complete Unknown, but its late unveiling does not seem to have hurt its prospects. Indeed, on the heels of snagging spots on the National Board of Review’s and AFI’s top 10 lists, it garnered GG noms for best picture, actor (Timothée Chalamet) and supporting actor (Edward Norton), and then received those same three Critics Choice noms. My sense is that, in terms of Oscars, the film is a slam dunk for a best actor nom, and is right on the bubble for best picture and supporting actor noms.

I would actually say the exact same thing for the Oscar prospects of A24’s Sing Sing, even though its path to this point has been very different (my concern was that it may have been released too early). Colman Domingo won the best lead performance Gotham Award and has been nominated for the equivalent Spirit and Golden Globe awards, so he’s consistently looked solid for a second consecutive Oscar nom. Clarence Maclin, for his first major film role, won the best supporting performance Gotham Award and has been nominated for the equivalent Spirit award, but missed a Golden Globe nom, so I’ve felt less confident about his Oscar prospects. And the film itself was nominated for the best feature Spirit Award and secured spots on the AFI’s and NBR’s top 10 lists, but missed a best picture Globe nom, so it was looking a bit shaky too. Thursday, though, it showed major strength with CC voters, with noms for picture, actor, supporting actor, acting ensemble and adapted screenplay.

3. A Real Pain and September 5 stumbled

Searchlight’s A Real Pain and Paramount’s September 5 both were GG nominees for best picture (musical/comedy and drama, respectively), and A Real Pain also received GG noms for best musical/comedy actor (Jesse Eisenberg), supporting actor (Kieran Culkin) and screenplay (Eisenberg). Both, however, missed best picture CC noms. A Real Pain registered only for best supporting actor, original screenplay and comedy, while September 5 showed up only for original screenplay and film editing.

This suggests that both films remain very much on the best picture Oscar bubble.

4. A number of films are now on life support

Paramount’s Gladiator II is increasingly looking like an Oscar nomination possibility for only supporting actor (Denzel Washington) and some below-the-line categories, having received GG noms for only Washington and cinematic/box office achievement, and now CC noms for only Washington, costume design, production design and visual effects. It’s running out of time to show greater strength — at this point, the only thing that would signal a major improvement of its prospects would be a SAG Award nom for best ensemble and/or lead actor Paul Mescal.

Apple’s Blitz is also struggling to gain traction — after being totally overlooked by GG voters, its only CC nom was for best young actor/actress (Elliott Heffernan).

Meanwhile, totally shut out from the Critics Choice noms were Sony Classics’ The Outrun and The Room Next Door (lead actresses Saoirse Ronan and GG nominee Tilda Swinton, respectively, could have used a shot of momentum); Briarcliff/Rich Spirit’s The Apprentice (lead actor Sebastian Stan and supporting actor Jeremy Strong were hoping to build on their GG noms); and A24’s Babygirl (it was somewhat surprising that the GG-nominated lead actress Nicole Kidman missed here).

5. Other notable hits and misses

CC voters are presented with a nominating ballot that looks different from the nominating ballot of most other organizations — it invites them to list/rank only three choices per acting category, rather than five, even though there are ultimately six nominees for each acting race. I suspect that this results in many voters spreading their slots among performers from different films, rather than allocating multiple slots to performers from the same film, which they would be likelier to do if they had more slots. If I’m correct, that might explain the absence of Emilia Pérez’s GG-nominated Selena Gomez from the supporting actress CC category in which her costar, Zoe Saldaña, was nominated. Given CC voters’ obvious affection for the film — again, it received 10 noms — it’s a little surprising not to see her there.

Two other GG nominees who I thought CC voters might embrace, but who also came up short: The Brutalist’s supporting actress Felicity Jones and I’m Still Here’s Fernanda Torres.

On the flip side, Anora’s Yura Borisov, who was earlier this season nominated for best supporting performance at the Gotham and European Film awards, has now followed his best supporting performance LAFCA win and Spirit and GG noms with a CC nom. This all but confirms that Borisov has emerged from the trio of Anora supporting actors — the others being Mark Eydelshteyn and Karren Karagulian — as the one with the best shot at landing an Oscar nom.

Also getting a boost today: Daniel Craig (A24’s Queer) and Hugh Grant (A24’s Heretic), who, on the heels of far-from-assured best actor GG noms, nabbed far-from-assured CC noms; Janus/Sideshow’s Flow, which followed its best animated feature GG nom with CC noms for both best animated feature and best international feature; IFC’s indie Memoir of a Snail, which also followed its best animated feature GG nom with an equivalent CC nom; and “Harper and Will Go West,” an original song from Netflix’s Will & Harper, which was the only documentary to receive CC recognition (doc films themselves are only eligible at the CC Documentary Awards).