Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani has seen his polling lead slip to just 43.9 percent of support in the final AtlasIntel Poll for the New York City mayoral race, while independent candidate Andrew Cuomo trails at 39.4 percent.
The tightening in the race comes just one day before Election Day as Republican Curtis Sliwa’s backing dropped sharply, narrowing Mamdani’s lead to just 4.5 percentage points.
Why It Matters
AtlasIntel was ranked the most accurate polling company of the 2024 election by survey veteran Nate Silver and was previously named the most accurate pollster of the 2020 election by 538.
While Mamdani has been viewed as the front-runner, the slip could be a worrying sign for the Democratic socialist ahead of Election Day on Tuesday.
Zohran Mamdani vs. Andrew Cuomo: Latest Polling
The AtlasIntel poll, conducted between October 31 and November 2, 2025, among 2,404 likely NYC voters, showed Mamdani with a likely victory of 43.9 percent. Cuomo, the state’s former governor, was not far behind, on 39.4 percent, and Sliwa had 15.5 percent.
The previous poll, conducted over the five days prior, showed Mamdani, 34, with a wider lead over his opponents, at 40.6 percent compared to 34 percent and 24.1 percent, respectively. While Mamdani appeared to have gained support, the narrower margin will likely be the focus of all candidates in the final hours of campaigning.
Many New Yorkers had already cast their ballots before Monday’s poll, with more than 735,000 votes cast during the city’s nine days of early in-person voting, more than four times the number of ballots cast during the only other mayoral race to allow early voting, in 2021.
The tally was well short of the nearly 1.1 million early, in-person votes cast during last year’s presidential election, but some voting locations saw large crowds Sunday, the last day of early voting. The line at one polling place in downtown Brooklyn snaked around the building and, at one point, took an hour to cast a ballot.
Cuomo had a packed schedule on Monday, setting out to hit each of the boroughs for a get-out-the-vote effort. He wasted little time in attacking Mamdani. At one early stop, the former governor likened a potential Mamdani administration to left-wing governments in Latin America.
Mamdani kicked off the day by crossing the Brooklyn Bridge, carrying a banner alongside Democratic allies. As the race approaches the finish line, Mamdani has continued to post viral social media videos and urge his progressive fans to maintain the enthusiasm and send as many supporters to the polls as possible.
Sliwa, the creator of the Guardian Angels crime patrol group, visited a subway stop in Brooklyn, laying a wreath for a woman who died last year after being set on fire at the station.
Who Has Endorsed Zohran Mamdani?
While Mamdani has been a popular candidate among Democratic voters, some members of his party were slow to endorse him, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, a New York representative, who only added his support last week.
Other endorsements have come from New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, New York Governor Kathy Hochul, who replaced Cuomo after he resigned amid allegations of sexual harassment in 2021, and independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.
Who Has Endorsed Andrew Cuomo?
After failing to beat Mamdani in the Democratic primary in June, Cuomo opted to run as an independent candidate.
In doing so, he has managed to gain the endorsements of current New York City Mayor Eric Adams, who dropped out of the race a few weeks ago, as well as, seemingly begrudgingly, President Donald Trump.
What People Are Saying
Independent candidate Andrew Cuomo, speaking about Mamdani’s policies on Monday, November 3: “Socialism didn’t work in Venezuela. Socialism didn’t work in Cuba. Socialism is not going to work in New York City.”
Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani, outside New York City Hall on Monday: “I continue to be confident about our chances heading into Election Day tomorrow. But I will not allow myself or let this movement to become complacent.”
Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa, on social media on Monday: “I’m running because this city deserves safety, accountability, and leadership that won’t look the other way.”
What Happens Next
Election Day is Tuesday, November 4. The winner will assume the role of mayor on January 1, 2026.
This article contains reporting by The Associated Press.
Update 11/3/25, 3:22 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
