While most of the prediction thought and energy when forecasting the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards goes to the big-ticket honors for comedy, drama and limited series, there are no fewer than 99 additional categories for which statuettes will be handed out at the Creative Arts Emmys on September 7 and 8 at the Peacock Theater at L.A. LIVE. And because they had already talked themselves hoarse debating the merits of the categories included in The Big Emmy Show on September 15, Gold Derby senior editors Denton Davidson, Marcus James Dixon and Daniel Montgomery and news and features editor Ray Richmond decided it was time to lock horns in a slugfest examining some of the too-often-less-discussed nominees gunning for gold in the creative arts portion of the three-day Emmy extravaganza. Watch the quartet’s lively discussion above.
First up was a wrangle over the four guest acting categories, each of which find the Gold Derby odds favoring a single nominee as a massive frontrunner. Claire Foy, already a two-time winner for “The Crown” as both lead and guest actress, is the runaway leader in drama guest actress over Michaela Coel, Sarah Paulson and Parker Posey for “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” and Marcia Gay Harden for “The Morning Show.” In drama guest actor, the clear choice is Nestor Carbonell for “Shogun” over John Turturro and Paul Dano for “Mr. and Mrs. Smith,” Jonathan Pryce for “Slow Horses” and Tracy Letts for “Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty.” On the comedy side, meanwhile, Jamie Lee Curtis (“The Bear”) has a giant lead in comedy guest actress in the odds over Maya Rudolph and Kristen Wiig (“Saturday Night Live”), Kaitlin Olson (“Hacks”) and Olivia Colman (“The Bear”). Finally, in comedy guest actor, the voters’ choice is Jon Bernthal for “The Bear,” trailed by a pair of other “Bear Actors (Will Poulter and Bob Odenkirk), Ryan Gosling for “Saturday Night Live,” Christopher Lloyd for “Hacks” and Matthew Broderick for “Only Murders in the Building.”
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What do the editors think? Three of them are going with Foy for drama guest, not surprisingly. “I’m predicting her, but not confidently,” admits Montgomery, “because I think the ‘Mr. and Mrs. Smith’ actors will cancel each other out, and going by recent history.” Davidson agrees “just because ‘The Crown’ is a step above the other shows in the category in terms of how the Emmy voters have felt about it over time, though I would love to see Parker Posey win.” Dixon believes that the last time Foy won in 2021 “she really didn’t deserve it. But for this one, it’s the series finale of ‘The Crown’.” Richmond is the only dissenter here, understanding that having three nominees from the same show “could split the vote” but predicting an upset nonetheless “just because she really deserves it, and voters will see that.”
Richmond foresees no similar upset for drama guest actor. “It’s Nestor for sure,” he says. “I feel like ‘Shogun’ is going to be a huge winner, and this is a category that feels pretty safe. Plus, I feel like the academy has been waiting to honor someone named Nestor for a long time.” Davidson is predicting Carbonell as well. “I would love to see him get his due because he’s so great in everything he does, and he’s got a high-profile, too. I’d be a little surprised if he didn’t pull this off.” So would Montgomery, though he again adds the caveat, “It’s another one where I’m not entirely confident. The Emmys have liked John Turturro a lot in the past, and the Emmys like Jonathan Pryce a lot right now because he has that extra nomination for ‘The Crown.’ But I think Nester gets carried along in what could be a ‘Shogun’ sweep.”
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Oscar winner Curtis may be the biggest lock of the Emmys for her role as Donna Berzatto, the mother from hell, on the acclaimed ‘Fishes’ episode of “The Bear.” “Slam dunk,” agrees Dixon. “The moment her episode aired last year, people were predicting her win here.” Montgomery concurs, “I think it’s Jamie Lee Curtis and I think she’s probably the strongest frontrunner among these guest categories. But I still don’t think she’s a lock, not when you have Maya Rudolph there who has won this category twice in the last four years for ‘SNL’.” What Montgomery wonders is how voters might respond to a Curtis performance that’s so inherently dramatic in a comedy category. “But they don’t usually care when it comes to the acting races,” he adds. “Slam dunk (for Curtis),” affirms Davidson, “so I’m going to rule out Maya Rudolph.” Richmond believes that “the day the episode of ‘The Bear’ dropped, she already won.”
Bernthal is also a frontrunner for that same “Fishes” episode of “The Bear,” his character Michael Berzatto returning from the recently departed as a suicide victim for the flashback installment. “Season two of ‘The Bear’ was so strong and that episode is all focused on Bernthal,” Davidson emphasizes. “There was a lot of breaking of giggling and sort of breaking character throughout (the “SNL” episode hosted by Ryan Gosling), and I don’t feel like that’s the kind of performance that’s going to win him an Emmy.” Montgomery thinks Bernthal earned a nomination for his tiny role in Season 1 of “The Bear” based on voters seeing his work in Season 2, “so in a sense, he got two nominations for the same performance. I do think he’ll win this, but watch out for Christopher Lloyd.” In fact, Dixon is picking Lloyd to knock off Bernthal “because he made me laugh more than anyone else in the category. He’s a legend, and he’s out there campaigning. I think that means he wants it.” Richmond is going with Bernthal “because he stands out among a huge group of all-star guest performers.”
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Meanwhile, in the Best TV-Movie race where Gold Derby’s odds have “Mr. Monk’s Last Case” out in front ahead of “Quiz Lady,” “Red, White and Royal Blue,” Scoop” and “Unfrosted,” Dixon is going with Quiz Lady” “because it’s funny, it’s hip and cool and it won the Critics Choice Award in a bit of an upset back in January.” He’ll get no argument from Montgomery, who too is pinking “Quiz Lady” “because it did better with the guilds. It got a PGA nomination and won a WGA Award. But I do believe there are three films that can take this: ‘Quiz Lady,’ ‘Mr. Monk’ and ‘Red, White and Royal Blue.’ Richmond checks in with a third “Quiz Lady” vote to win for its quality and the chemistry of stars Awkwafina and Sandra Oh “even though God knows the academy loves Tony Shalhoub as Monk.” Davidson admits, “I didn’t really know but you guys convinced me. I had ‘Mr. Monk’s Last Case’ up there by default. I’ll follow your lead, even though I’d actually love to see ‘Red, White and Royal Blue’ take this. It was a cultural phenomenon and definitely has a lot of fans.”
PREDICT the 2024 Emmy winners through September 15
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