There are cracks in the blue wall.
Democratic registration dropped 7% in New York City and 4% across the Empire State between 2020 and 2024 — the latest sign of disaffection with liberal policies that some pundits is fueling a national push to the right.
Democrats saw registration plummet 258,612 in the city from November 2020 to November 2024, when there were 3.4 million voters registered to the Democratic Party, according to Board of Election data.
That accounted for much of the 271,322 statewide decline in party enrollment as the GOP saw a modest gain of 2%, or 67,483 voters, enrolled statewide — bringing Republican Party totals to slightly more than 3 million, according to the numbers.
There were 4,912 more enrolled Republicans in the city, to 573,644 total, the data show.
But the biggest development was a 12% bump in registered voters without a party int he state — the so-called “blanks” or independents. Non-affiliated voters surged by 353,792 voters, to more than 3.3 million, outnumbering Republicans statewide.
In New York City, there was a 7% increase or 80,134 more non-party affiliated voters — to 1,155,323, nearly double the total of the GOP.
The data show there’s a potential to grow a GOP-indy alliance, as the results in the presidential election indicate, one voting expert said.
President-elect Donald Trump drew 44% of the vote in blue New York to 56% for Vice President Kamala Harris, the highest vote for a Republican candidate in 36 years. Democrats nationwide are sifting though the carnage of losing the White House and both the House and Senate to the GOP.
In 2022, Democrat Kathy Hochul won the race for governor by just 6-percentage points — 53%-47% over Republican Lee Zeldin. Zeldin, a former House member, is now Trump’s nominee for Environmental Protection Agency secretary.
“Across election districts, the share of people registering recently with no party is highly correlated with the share of those voting for Trump in 2024,” said CUNY Graduate Center political science professor John Mollenkopf. “The shifting registration patterns clearly show some degree of disaffection for the Democratic party and an openness to voting for the Republican candidate.”
Mollenkopf cautioned the Republican not to pop any champagne bottles, though.
“It doesn’t indicate they [voters] have joined the Republican Party. So this is a challenge to the Democrats and an opportunity for the Republicans, but they haven’t closed the deal,” he said.
Democrats still hold a huge enrollment advantage — 6.54 million — more than the Republicans and independent registered voters combined.
Still, the results show Republicans and independents chipping away at the Democrats in some key areas.
Democratic enrollment dropped by nearly 9,000 votes on Staten Island while GOP registration increased by more than 2,000 and independents shot up by more than 9,000 or 12%, to 86,155 non-party voters.
“The results show dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party, with one-party rule,” said state Assemblyman Michael Tannousis, the Staten Island Republican Party chairman.
State Republican Party chairman Ed Cox said Democrats are “bleeding, losing.”
“We are gaining and independents are gaining,” he said.
Cox said Democrats’ one party rule brought New York higher taxes and soft on crime policies such as the cashless bail law, and the state continues to lose population.
State Democratic Party chairman Jay Jacobs admitted the drop in party enrollment and the surge in non-party registration is a concern and must be addressed.
“It definitely corresponds to what we have been hearing anecdotally. People have not been completely happy with the direction and messaging of the party,” Jacobs said.
“We have to do a better job. The Democratic Party has to do a better job of giving new voters a reason to join our party.”
But voters are not flocking to the Republican Party, he said.
In fact, Democrats won back four House seats they lost to Republicans in 2022.
Jacobs said two years ago Democrats were clamoring for his head.
“Now I hear crickets,” he quipped.
