A prominent Democratic pollster has expressed shock at data revealing a significant conservative shift among Gen Z voters, particularly young men, who helped propel Donald Trump to victory in the 2024 presidential election against Kamala Harris.
Why It Matters
Recent AtlasIntel polling shows President Trump’s approval rating among 18–29-year-olds has climbed to 52.7 percent in February, marking a substantial improvement since his January inauguration.
This demographic transformation challenges long-held Democratic Party assumptions about younger generations forming an “ascendant majority” that would secure their electoral future.
The conservative trend among Gen Z voters—especially young men—appears to be solidifying during Trump’s second term, potentially reshaping American politics for years to come.
A teenager displays a Donald Trump shirt at a Trump rally on October 22, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. The election is November 8.
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
What To Know
In a podcast interview on Tuesday with New York Times columnist Ezra Klein, David Shor, head of data science at Democratic polling firm Blue Rose Research, revealed striking findings about youth voting patterns in the 2024 election. According to their analysis, Trump won among young white men and narrowly captured support from nonwhite men in the 18-year-old demographic.
“This is the thing I am the most shocked by in the last four years—that young people have gone from being the most progressive generation since the Baby Boomers… to becoming potentially the most conservative generation that we’ve experienced maybe in 50 to 60 years,” Shor stated.
The data also reveals an unprecedented 23-percentage-point gender gap among voters under 30, with young men significantly more likely to support Trump than young women. This polarization appears to be part of a global trend observed in several Western democracies.
According to AP VoteCast analysis, President Trump won 47 percent of the 18-29 demographic in the 2024 election, up from 36 percent in 2020. AtlasIntel’s February polling shows his approval rating in this age group has improved by nearly 23 percentage points since January.
What People Are Saying
David Shor, Democratic Pollster: “I have to admit, I was one of those liberals four years ago, and it seems I was wrong. The future has a way of surprising us.”
Ezra Klein, New York Times Columnist: “Democrats are getting destroyed now among young voters… They thought that this was a last gasp of something and that if Donald Trump couldn’t run up his numbers among seniors and you had Millennials and Gen Z really coming into voting power, that would be the end of this Republican Party. That is just completely false.”
David B. Cohen, Political Science Professor, told Newsweek in a 2024 interview: “Young voters compose a crucial part of the Democratic base, and if that is eroding, where do they make up for that? Going forward, Democrats will have to figure out how to bring young voters back to the fold—particularly young men—if they want to be competitive nationally.”
A voter and a young boy at a polling station in Sterling, Virginia, on November 5, 2024, as Americans participate in the presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
ALI KHALIGH/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images
What Happens Next
The White House may develop more targeted outreach to further solidify support among younger voters, while Democrats face the challenge of reconnecting with a pivotal demographic, they previously underestimated.
