The 2028 Democratic presidential primary may still be more than three years away, but there are already a steady trickle of polls on potential candidates—with some early frontrunners starting to emerge.
Newsweek reached out to the Democratic National Committee (DNC) for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Democrats lost control of the White House and Senate in the 2024 election, after losing control of the House in the 2022 midterm. With former President Joe Biden choosing to bow out of the 2024 race late in the cycle, and Vice President Kamala Harris failing to defeat President Donald Trump in November, the Democrats have been left without a clear leader moving forward.
Although the 2028 election is a little under four years away, pollsters are already fielding surveys to get a glimpse of what Democratic voters are thinking about the future. The polling shows a few prominent Democrats taking an early lead.
What to Know
Several 2028 Democratic primary polls have been carried out since the 2024 election. All of these polls have consistently shown Harris as the frontrunner. Below her, there are several other prominent Democrats that are consistently polling at the top of the pack.
While none of these Democrats have yet announced a 2028 campaign, the polls provide a glimpse of what voters are thinking at this early stage. Here’s a closer look at the data.
Kamala Harris
Harris’ future plans are not clear but there is significant speculation that she will run to be California’s next governor in 2026, as the state’s current Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom is term limited. Polling has suggested she’d be the frontrunner if she throws her hat in the ring for that race.
The most recent poll looking at the 2028 Democratic primary was carried out by Echelon Insights from February 10 to 13, with 443 likely voters. The survey showed Harris as the top choice, with 36 percent support.
A previous poll by J.L. Partners for the Daily Mail showed Harris at 30 percent. That survey was conducted from February 2 to 3 and included 500 registered voters. Meanwhile, a poll by McLaughlin & Associates, carried out in late January among 414 likely voters, had Harris at 35 percent.
Pete Buttigieg
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has come in as a distant second in all of the most recent polls. Echelon Insights had the former South Bend, Indiana, mayor at 10 percent, with J.L. Partners and McLaughlin & Associates showing him at 8 percent and 9 percent, respectively.
Notably, Buttigieg ran a strong 2020 primary campaign, narrowly finishing first in the Iowa caucuses and tying in the New Hampshire primary. He eventually dropped out following the South Carolina primary, which Biden won handily. Buttigieg endorsed Biden and went on to serve in his Cabinet from 2020 through the end of his term.
Gavin Newsom
California’s governor is close behind, or tied, with Buttigieg in the recent polling. Echelon Insights shows Newsom at 6 percent, behind the former transportation secretary. In the J.L. Partners survey the two are tied at 8 percent, and in the McLaughlin & Associates poll Newsom comes in third at 7 percent.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Progressive Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez also appears to be among the top contenders for 2028. The New York Democrat is at 5 percent in the polls by Echelon Insights and J.L. Partners. She came in at 6 percent in the McLaughlin & Associates survey.
Other Potential Candidates
The surveys include a wide range of potential candidates. Two other names that routinely poll higher than others are Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, who was a frontrunner to become Harris’ running mate, and Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota, who Harris selected to be on her ticket.
There are also some unique contenders who have appeared in recent polls. These include billionaire Mark Cuban, who is at 3 percent in the Echelon Insights poll, and ESPN commentator Stephen A. Smith, who came in at 2 percent in the McLaughlin & Associates survey.
Andrew Harnik/Kevin Dietsch/Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/Patrick T. Fallon/AFP/Getty Images
What People Are Saying
Brian Brokaw, who managed Harris’ campaign for California attorney general, recently told Politico: “I would pretty much guarantee you she [Harris] has no idea what her next move is. She is not someone who makes rash decisions. She takes, sometimes, a painfully long time to make decisions. Could she run for governor? Yes. Do I think she wants to run for governor? Probably not. Could she win? Definitely. Would she like the job? I don’t know. Could she run for president again? Yes.”
Monica Crowley, a former official in Trump’s first administration, told Fox News in late November: “Just a word of warning to the Republicans, to my party, do not underestimate AOC, she’s young, she’s vibrant, she’s attractive. I think she’s wrong on everything, but she does have real grass root support. And all the energy and activism in the Democrat party remains with the revolutionary left, of which she is a part.”
Stephen A. Smith told CNBC last week: “I wouldn’t mind being in office, but running for it is a problem. I’m not one of those dudes that’s great at shaking hands and kissing babies, per se, and currying favor with politicians and donors. I’m not a beggar. That’s not who I am. Now, if you told me I could bypass all of that, and I could go up on that stage on national television, for a presidential debate, and go up against some of the people that I’ve seen, you name the time and place and I’ll show up.
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to Latino USA: “I have a weird relationship with the Democratic Party. I don’t believe in a two-party system, but I also understand the Democratic Party is a coalition and if we want the party to change, the balance of the coalition has to change. But right now, you open the hood on the Democratic Party, what you have is, I think, a bit of a power struggle over the last couple of years.”
What Happens Next?
It’s unclear which Democrats will ultimately throw their hats into the ring to run in the 2028 primary. These decisions usually aren’t officially announced until later, likely after the 2026 midterm elections or in early 2027.
While there are a number of prominent figures being floated at this stage, it’s possible that a candidate not currently on anyone’s radar will emerge and ultimately come out on top.
