Abigail Spanberger, Democratic candidate for Virginia governor, holds a slim lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, a new poll shows.
Why It Matters
The 2025 Virginia governor’s race stands as a critical test for both major parties ahead of the 2026 midterms. As one of the first major statewide contests since the 2024 presidential election, its outcome could preview national trends and directly impact party strategies for holding or capturing congressional majorities.
Virginia’s status as a swing state, as evidenced by Republican Glenn Youngkin’s narrow victory in 2021 and Democrats’ strong showings in recent federal races, means its gubernatorial election is garnering national attention from political strategists and observers alike. The contest also touches key issues including federal employment, government shutdown effects and culture war flashpoints, further raising its stakes for voters and parties.
What To Know
In the poll by The Trafalgar Group, Spanberger has 47.5 percent of the vote compared to Earle-Sears’ 45.3 percent.
The poll surveyed 1,039 likely voters from October 13 to October 15, with a 2.9 percent margin of error. Earle-Sears and Spanberger are statistically tied in the race, with less than three weeks to go. The poll also shows 6.4 percent of voters are undecided.
In a survey by the pollster in September, Spanberger received 47.1 percent of voters’ support versus Earle-Sears’ 41.9 percent. The survey showed 9.4 percent of voters as undecided.
Spanberger is focusing her campaign messaging on the economy and defending Virginia’s federal workers, linking Earle-Sears to President Donald Trump and the ongoing effects of the federal government shutdown. Earle-Sears, in contrast, is emphasizing social issues like transgender policies in schools and criticizing Spanberger’s stances on immigration and public safety. The debate over a text message scandal involving Democratic Attorney General nominee Jay Jones has added new uncertainty to the final weeks of the campaign.
What People Are Saying
D. Stephen Voss, political science professor at the University of Kentucky, to Newsweek via email on Thursday: “The polls have tightened up in Virginia, and that’s never good news for the candidate in the lead. Best guess, the tightening there is being driven by events unique to Virginia, more so than by national trends in favor of the GOP. The controversy over Spanberger’s ticket mate for Attorney General, combined with her handling of that scandal, cannot be doing the Democrats any favors. This sort of polling shift often fades, though. While respondents typically react to the latest news when answering polls, because that’s what’s accessible in their memories, voters often snap back to their usual partisanship by the time the election rolls around.
“A major difficulty Earle-Sears faces is that Virginia’s early voting laws dilute the importance of late campaign events (and, I would argue, short circuit the full electoral process). Fewer and fewer voters are available to react to what the campaign is teaching them about their options. Still, bad publicity on the Democratic side of the ballot does open up the potential for Earle-Sears to market herself to portions of the Virginia electorate that usually shy away from voting Republican. That’s not an easy selling job, but candidates sometimes pull it off.”
Earle-Sears, on X Thursday: “Abigail Spanberger supports men in girls’ locker rooms, wants to make Virginia a sanctuary state, and thinks Jay Jones is fit to be our attorney general. She is on the wrong side of every issue.”
Spanberger, on X Wednesday: “As if our economy hasn’t been through enough, Trump’s shutdown is now further devastating Virginia’s workforce. Virginians across the Commonwealth are being sent home without pay. It’s outrageous, and it’s time we elect a Governor who will stand up for Virginia jobs.”
What Happens Next
Early voting in Virginia runs until November 1, with Election Day slated for November 4. Both campaigns are intensifying their outreach as poll margins narrow and attention to the attorney general scandal mounts.
