The Democrats lost the 2024 presidential race largely because what appeared to be the ever-rising prices of consumer goods, with groceries playing a starring role. Despite being part of an administration that presided over an inflation reduction of nearly 6 percent (from 9 percent to somewhat under 3 percent annually), then-Vice President Kamala Harris failed to articulate a plan that portrayed her as a capable steward of the economy. Hopefully this has taught the Democrats a critical lesson.
The Harris campaign’s ineptitude in communicating on economic issues—and the far too great a focus on abortion and democracy issues—were key factors in an election where she lost by fewer than 125,000 votes across three swing states. However, bringing the issue of high prices to the fore is now the most promising path for the Democrats to a winning hand.
It would be exceedingly hard—if not impossible—for the Democrats to take the lead on immigration concerns, which President Donald Trump manipulated so effectively last year. While he will never successfully carry out his campaign pledge to deport millions of immigrants, whatever measures he does take are likely to maintain his ownership of the issue.
Eggs are displayed for sale in a Manhattan grocery store on Feb. 25, in New York City.
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
It is also likely that Trump will take the prize for peace in Ukraine. While it is reprehensible that he has aligned himself with the aggressor, Russian President Vladimir Putin, there is likely to be some kind of “peace” deal for which Trump will take credit. Likely, voters will laud the outcome, even if they are misled on its implications.
Moreover, while Elon Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency is beginning to look like one big, cruel PR exercise, Trump is perceived to be taking action to cut the costs of government which a majority of voters favor.
But Democrats can own the issue of consumer prices, which may well be the one voters care most about. First, Trump’s headline distraction of the day—be it annexing Greenland and the Panama Canal, or outlawing paper straws—makes it easy to show Trump’s energies are being diverted away from bringing down prices as he pledged to do as his first order of business.
Moreover, most importantly for Democrats, consumer prices are never going down. That’s right, they will never go down. And because they will never go down, Democrats can throw the issue back in Trump’s face over and over again.
Overall, consumer prices are up more than 20 percent from 2020, with the real pinch most being felt in grocery stores. While we will get to the other side of bird flu and the price of eggs is likely to come down, prices overall are not going to retreat.
Yet the president, in his address to the joint session of Congress on Tuesday, doubled down lowering grocery and other prices, saying he would “reverse” them and “make America affordable again.”
What can change is the rate at which prices increase, but there is no way we are going to see a return to anything close to consumer prices from five years ago. In fact, were prices to come down, the U.S. economy would actually be suffering from deflation, an economic state that accompanies extreme recessions or even a depression.
If that were to occur, Trump would be on the hook for far more than simply the price of goods.
To be fair, there are a few volatile commodities that may see some slight easing without economic collapse, such as the price of gasoline, to which consumers are particularly sensitive. That, however, is far more a function of world events. A growing Chinese economy can raise prices, the lifting of sanctions on Russia and Iran, or loosening of OPEC quotas is likely to have far more impact than Trump’s urging to “drill baby, drill.”
Moreover, any increase in domestic oil production would likely come from U.S. shale, which produces oil which is not compatible with most U.S. refinery capacity and is most suited for export, so benefits would be slight.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve does not seem to be in a rush to reduce interest rates, which might lower consumer costs in other ways. It can be argued that interest rate reductions, by lowering mortgage rates, could reduce the cost of housing. But there is so much pent-up demand for new homes that the surge in new purchasers could well cause the cost of housing to actually increase, despite a slight lowering of borrowing costs. Of course, the market can also force interest rates down as a sign of a slowing economy, which Trump would then also own.
While Democrats must continue to resist Trump initiatives that are beyond the pale—particularly ones that relate to undermining democracy and constitutional protections—they must stay on message. They must point out that whatever Trump is doing that isn’t strictly focused on lowering prices is a betrayal of his voters.
Of course, presidents have a limited ability to affect consumer prices, particularly groceries. Still, Trump’s extreme actions can make things a lot worse. Big tax cuts and even larger budget deficits, high tariffs, and severe tightening of the labor market because of major immigrant deportations (or even the fear of them) are likely to catalyze higher inflation.
Doing all of this at once, which is the Republican plan, is likely to force the Fed to act to bring down this renewed inflation, and actually raise interest rates, thus putting a break on an economy that will then stifle growth.
Polling suggests the public is beginning to turn on Trump regarding inflation. A recent CNN poll found that 62 percent felt Trump had not gone far enough in trying to reduce the price of everyday goods. This includes 47 percent of Republicans and 65 percent of independents. Moreover, nine out of 10 adults polled expressed negative views on food prices.
It is not good news for all of us trying to get by that prices are never coming down to where they were—but from a purely political standpoint, that reality is the best possible news for Democrats.
Harris’ campaign failures on the economy got us into the chaotic mess that the Trump administration has already become, and Democrats can never forget the lesson of her campaign. They must realize now that high prices alone provide their best path to redemption.
The certainty of prices not coming down, and what looks like the relative certainty of Trump’s policies driving prices even higher, makes the comeback mantra for the Democrats—”We fight them, he ignites them!”—quite obvious. There will be plenty of evidence soon to come that Trump policies further drive-up inflation, and in the meantime, prices will remain stubbornly high.
Tom Rogers is executive chairman of Claigrid, Inc. (the cloud AI grid company), an editor-at-large for Newsweek, the founder of CNBC and a CNBC contributor. He also established MSNBC, is the former CEO of TiVo, a member of Keep Our Republic (an organization dedicated to preserving the nation’s democracy). He is also a member of the American Bar Association Task Force on Democracy.
The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.
