President Donald Trump’s approval rating has plummeted in North Carolina, a key swing state that he has won three times during his three presidential runs.
According to an Elon University Poll, Trump’s net approval rating in the state is -11 percentage points. This is a five-point decline on the university’s previous poll in April and also a decline on previous polling conducted earlier this year by a different pollsters.
Newsweek reached out to the White House by email to comment on this story.
Why It Matters
Politically volatile, swing states were important in determining the result of the 2024 presidential election and securing Trump the keys to the White House.
North Carolina in particular is an important swing state. It hasn’t voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since 2008 but Trump won the state in 2016, 2020 and 2024, and seven of its last eight gubernatorial contests have gone blue.
Maintaining the support of voters, therefore, will be crucial given Senate and House seats will be contested in the state in the upcoming midterm elections. If Democrats pick up more seats, this could affect the balance of power in Congress and the passage of legislation.
What To Know
Elon University’s polling of 700 adults found that 50 percent of people disapprove of Trump’s job performance while 39 percent approve—a net -11 point approval rating.
It was conducted between September 23 and October 1 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.24 percentage points.
It comes after October analysis by data journalist G. Elliott Morris posted in his Substack blog Strength In Numbers found that the 3.2 percent margin Trump won the state with in 2024 had declined to -9 points.
Similarly, September polling by Catawba College/YouGov found that the President had a net approval rating of -9 percentage points in the state.
This was a dip from a previous Catawba College/YouGov poll of 1,000 North Carolinians, conducted in July, which found that 50 percent disapproved of the president while 46 percent said they approve, giving him a net approval rating of -4 percentage points.
That was also a decline from March, when the pollsters found that 48 percent approved and 47 percent disapproved—a net approval rating of -1.
Meanwhile, a February poll published by Elon University gave Trump an approval rating of +4 percentage points and an April poll found that his approval rating was -6 percentage points, five points higher than in their latest poll.
What People Are Saying
William Hall, adjunct professor of political science and business at Webster University in St. Louis, Missouri, told Newsweek issues in the economy “have ultimately taken a negative toll and shaken confidence in his leadership of the nation, among both voters in North Carolina and elsewhere as well as among a very significant number of voters, throughout the nation as a whole.”
He added: “If this ongoing trend in negative approvals for President Trump’s performance, among North Carolinians and others, should continue to persist, or alternatively, expand, then I would strongly suspect and believe that the looming prospects for a successful electoral performance in the 2026 midterm elections by Republicans, would be not only be in grave danger, but also in very serious doubt.”
Poll director Jason Husser said in a statement: “Trump has tended to do much better when he is the outsider, bringing a challenge to a group of people who he thinks are doing wrong for America, sort of he’s still the savior against a particular enemy. Once he is the insider, particularly when he has the level of control of Congress that he has right now, it makes it a little bit harder for him to effectively frame himself as the person fighting the system among people who were marginally attached to him to begin with.”
What Happens Next
Whether Trump manages to improve his standing in North Carolina remains to be seen. His popularity will likely fluctuate as people respond to his policies and national and international events.
