The trusted adage “styles make fights” is not exclusive to the sweet science. It holds across all sports, but it’s especially important when handicapping the Stanley Cup playoffs.
It’s what makes the upcoming best-of-seven series between the Ducks and Golden Knights fascinating.
Only three points separated these teams in the regular season, but they could hardly be more different.
The Ducks are young, fast and play with reckless abandon.
They led the NHL in total goals per game (6.74) this season, and that number ticked up to 7.8 in Anaheim’s first six games of the playoffs.
Defense is optional when Anaheim is buzzing around the ice.
While the Ducks want to trade chances and turn games into track meets, the Knights want to suffocate their opponents.
Although Vegas finished 12th in the league in goals allowed, it was in a class of its own when it came to preventing high-danger scoring chances and expected goals at 5-on-5.
With better goaltending, Vegas would have been unquestioned as the best defensive team in the NHL.
The betting market is giving the edge to the Knights, as they’re sitting as a -190 favorite to advance to the Western Conference final.
Ducks vs. Golden Knights Game 1 odds, prediction
Anaheim deserves credit for getting past the heavily favored Oilers in the first round, but that series couldn’t have broken better for the Ducks.
Not only was every game a high-event bonanza, Connor McDavid was operating at less than 100 percent, and Edmonton couldn’t get a save.
The Golden Knights have had their own goaltending issues this season, but they’re a deeper, more structured opponent than the Oilers.
This series will be a different animal for Anaheim.
Against Edmonton, the Ducks were able to play with the wind at their backs and take risks all over the ice because they knew there would be opportunities still to come off Edmonton mistakes.
That is not likely to be the case against the Knights.
John Tortorella’s teams are drilled to play things close to the vest and be patient with the puck, which should mute Anaheim’s speed quite a bit.
Vegas allowed just 8.9 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes in the first round against the Mammoth, another team with plenty of dynamic playmakers up top.
The wild card here, as always in hockey, is goaltending.
Carter Hart did just enough for Vegas to get through the first round, but there were some ugly moments, and there were plenty of murmurs that Tortorella was ready to give Adin Hill the keys to the blue paint.
The Ducks also will be holding their breath a bit with Lukas Dostal, who struggled to an .874 save percentage and -4.1 goals saved above expected against the Oilers.
Both goaltenders have high ceilings, but neither has been consistent this season, making it really hard to predict who will be the A-side of this matchup.
In a vacuum, the goaltending matchup is a wash.
But the edge has to go to Vegas because Hart should face a much more manageable workload, given the Knights’ defensive ability.
Betting on the NHL?
Plus, don’t overlook the advantage Vegas has behind its starter. Hill and Akira Schmid give Tortorella options should Hart falter.
Even if you draw a line through the goaltending, it’s hard to ignore the stylistic advantage for Vegas in this series.
They were elite in their own zone all season, and their elite two-way forwards, Mitch Marner, Mark Stone, Tomas Hertl and Jack Eichel, should feast on Anaheim’s mistakes.
There’s value on Vegas to win this series by at least two games (+110, DraftKings), and I like the price on Vegas’ Ivan Barbashev to lead the series in goals at 19/1 (FanDuel).
Barbashev is a playoff beast and has a cushy spot in the lineup next to Eichel and Pavel Dorofeyev on the top line.
The Plays: Vegas -1.5 games (+110, DraftKings) | Ivan Barbashev most goals in series (19/1, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
