Brussels is targeting Middle America as it fires its opening salvos in what risks becoming a full-blown trade war between the US and EU.
European Commission officials have been wargaming for this moment since Donald Trump’s first term, and have a hit list of iconic US products ready for countermeasures.
The list is designed to hit Trump voters’ pride and their pockets.
A crisis meeting on Wednesday morning over breakfast at the Commission’s Berlaymont headquarters will almost certainly have seen croissants served – but, as EU officials are well aware, it is the price of eggs that is preoccupying US voters.
The cost of living crisis is one of the key reasons the Biden administration lost to Trump in the 2024 presidential election. This week, the Trump White House faced questions over the soaring price of supermarket bills.
Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, announced a two stage retaliation to the 25pc tariff on steel and aluminium early on Wednesday.
The first wave of EU tariffs will hit products such as Levi’s jeans, Kentucky bourbon and Harley-Davidson motorcycles after the €8bn (£6.7bn) tax imposed by Washington.
Every product was chosen because it is made in a Republican state – regions where there is a risk of the vote turning blue in the future elections are often specifically targeted.
Harley-Davidsons, for example, are made in the swing state of Wisconsin where Trump narrowly beat Kamala Harris, at 49.6pc to 48.7pc.
The last time it was a target for Brussels’ levies, the manufacturer warned it would shift some production outside the US, threatening the very manufacturing jobs Trump has vowed to protect.
Fresh tariffs on bourbon will meanwhile cause pain in Kentucky, a state that last voted blue in the 1990s.
When the EU hit US whisky producers with tariffs during Trump’s first term, exports to the bloc plunged by a fifth and left American distillers more than $100m worse off from 2018 to 2021.
The industry generates close to $10bn a year for Kentucky’s economy, underlining the threat from tariffs.
The hope is that Republican congressmen and women, fearful of mid-term elections in 2026, will intercede with the mercurial Trump and convince him to back down.
Similar plans were drawn up by the EU to hit swing constituencies in Britain when London and Brussels came to the brink of the so-called sausage wars during the row over Northern Ireland’s Brexit deal.
Brussels will also now consult on an expanded list of products that read like the shopping list of an everyday middle class American.
That 99-page list includes bourbon whisky, chicken wings, vapes, nicotine patches and even women’s negligees. Heavy duty items such as snowploughs and motorcycles are also featured.
To hit Trump where it hurts most, Brussels is targeting soybeans grown in Louisiana, the home state of Mike Johnson, the House of Representatives speaker.
Some 60.2pc of voters there voted for Trump in November, with the state voting red in every presidential election of the past 25 years.
Officials believe the tariffs will spur companies based in the EU to import from countries such as Brazil or Argentina rather than the Republican state, where soybeans are the fourth-largest agricultural commodity.
Orange juice is another target, bringing economic pain to Florida, where Trump beat Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, by 56.1pc to 43pc in November.
The state has historically been a swing state but was seen as a safe Republican win in the last election.
Brussels has not yet found a way to strangle supply chains for the manufacturing of Trump’s famous red baseball caps. But tariffs will push up the costs of these staples, which will be passed onto consumers.
The Telegraph revealed this week that EU governments were considering plans to go even further and “weaponise” life-saving medicines.
Antibiotics, radiation therapies and pacemakers are among over 200 products identified because the US is dependent on EU supplies to meet domestic demand.
The list was originally drawn up as an analysis of supply chains in the wake of the Covid pandemic but has been repurposed.
In his first term, EU tariffs were shelved after Trump promised to halt further taxes on steel and aluminium in exchange for a European promise to buy more US soybeans. In fact, European farmers were doing so anyway because they had become cheaper than Chinese imports, which were used for animal feed.
The EU is the third largest steel and aluminium exporter to the US behind Canada and Brazil. But its industry is under huge competition from China.
The fact this is the second time Trump has hit EU steel and aluminium exports has tied Brussels’ hands.
EU leaders in national capitals simply will not accept a failure to retaliate from Brussels this time around. They fear that cars, food, drink and pharmaceuticals could be next unless the single market takes a stand against the White House.
It goes to the raison d’etre of the EU. Why be part of a 460m consumer strong trading bloc if you can’t defend your own interests?
As Britain found out in the Brexit trade talks, European Commission negotiators are ruthlessly hard-nosed.
The US president accuses European nations of running huge trade surpluses with America, while freeloading on defence.
In response, Von der Leyen announced a €800bn plan to boost European defence, which was backed by EU leaders at a summit last week.
EU capitals will also be frustrated that their efforts to appease Trump have failed, but the bloc does have the political will to use its economic muscle.
A key part of the EU’s strategy is to give the White House room for negotiation.
The first wave of tariffs do not come into effect until April 1, with the next wave under consultation, buying more time for talks.
Von der Leyen offered a carrot alongside the stick, stressing that the countermeasures were “proportionate” and that Brussels was “ready to engage in dialogue”.
She has suggested that the EU could commit to buying more US liquefied natural gas (LNG) in an echo of the soybean precedent, reducing the EU trade surplus and the bloc’s use of Russian LNG.
Promises to buy US weapons for Kyiv and their own arsenals could also de-escalate the trade scuffle.
Trump could play divide and conquer with the EU, which he believes was set up to “screw” the US.
The fear is that he rewards allies by sparing them from tariffs while hitting hawkish member states with more measures, and destroys EU unity.
For example, he could spare Italian prosecco but hit French red wine.
EU diplomatic sources believe supply chains in Europe are so integrated that limiting the impact would be nigh on impossible.
But the US president has his favourites in Europe, such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Italy’s Georgia Meloni.
Where does this leave Britain? Sir Keir Starmer has successfully sought to be a bridge between the US and Europe in the Ukraine crisis.
The UK won’t be rushed into the same retaliation as EU countries and will try to negotiate its own carve out from the measures.
But part of the UK will feel the impact of the higher EU tariffs, which have to be imposed in Northern Ireland because of the region’s Brexit deal.
That increased cost can be claimed back but businesses will have to judge if that is worth the expense or if it is simpler just to pass the cost onto consumers.
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