DALLAS — The era of big wave elections in House races is over — at least for the remainder of the decade, according to the official House GOP campaign boss.
Instead, there will only be “knife fights” in “dark alleys” due to the lack of swing districts caused by scorched-earth gerrymandering, National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Chairman Richard Hudson (R-NC) told The Post.
“I call it 30 knife fights in 30 dark alleys,” Hudson explained. “It’s just a handful of races, but every one of them will be decided by a few thousand votes. It’s going to be close.”
Hudson expected that dynamic to remain until at least the next census, which will shake up the apportionment of House seats and prompt states to redraw congressional district borders.
Before 2020, the House was prone to massive swings. In 2018, for instance, Democrats achieved a net gain of 41 seats. In 2010, Republicans had a net gain of 64 seats.
But in the most recent midterm cycle of 2022, Republicans only netted 10 seats, giving them a functionally five-seat majority.
Many media pundits and political observers have dubbed Republicans the underdogs in the race for control of the lower chamber. Prediction market Kalshi currently gives Democrats an 84% chance of flipping the House.
The party in control of the White House has lost House seats in all but two elections since 1938. Given that Republicans have a silver-thin majority, prognosticators have expected them to lose control of the chamber.
But GOP leadership has universally and adamantly contended that they have a clear path to hold the majority despite the expectations.
“They’re not looking at the facts on the ground. They’re not looking at actual polling in the districts that are up for grabs,” Hudson replied when asked about what the prognosticators have been getting wrong. “We’ve never had as small a map as we have for this midterm.”
“There’s never been this few seats that are actually up for grabs,” he added. “If you look at the actual seats that are up for grabs, they’re mostly Republican seats held by Democrats.”
At the start of the current Congress, there were 13 Democrats who hailed from states that President Trump won in 2024, compared to just three Republicans in states that former Vice President Kamala Harris won.
The Cook Political Report currently favors Republicans to win 209 House seats, compared to the Democrats’ 205. That leaves 21 toss-up seats.
Hudson also crowed about how the GOP is sitting on a cash cannon, with much larger war chests than Democrats, as they scramble during the midterm homestretch. The cash advantage has been amplified by the Supreme Court’s decision earlier this year striking down barriers on coordination with campaigns.
The NRCC boss revealed that the official House GOP campaign has really only begun tapping into its war chest in a significant way this month.
“Because voters don’t really pay attention until after Labor Day, so we’ll spend the money on when the voters are engaged,” when asked about the wait.
“We had field staff on the ground in these districts doing voter contact, knocking doors, making phone calls, and we’ve been doing that for a long time. But in terms of paid advertising, I just don’t think voters are paying attention if you go in July, August,” he said. “September is the right time.”
Hudson also predicted that in his home state, Republican Michael Whatley will prevail over former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) in the state’s critical Senate race, despite polls having him down and the Cook Political Report rating the contest as lean Democratic.
“His ceiling’s low, and the truth is the voters really have never seen his entire record prosecuted,” Hudson said of Cooper. “Once all these things start coming to light, Cooper’s going to be unelectable in North Carolina.
“No one sees him. He’s not on the trail anyway.”
