The closely-watched Republican Senate primary in Texas is too close to call, with incumbent John Cornyn, Rep. Wesley Hunt, and former state Attorney General Ken Paxton all within 1.5 percentage points of each other, according to a new poll exclusively obtained by The Post.
J.L. Partners found 27.0% of likely voters supported Paxton, 25.7% backed Hunt and 25.5% would cast a ballot for Cornyn if the election were held today. Another 21.7% were unsure of whom they would support.
The survey indicates the race has tightened from two months ago, when 29% of likely primary voters said they would back Paxton — while Hunt and Cornyn each hovered at around 24% support.
“With lots of different polls flying around from different sides, this poll provides one of the few unbiased takes out there,” said James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners.
“It shows Ken Paxton is beatable, with his lead narrowing to one point, but a three-way tie could yet gift him the primary.”
President Trump has yet to weigh in on the three-cornered fight — which had been a two-way race before Hunt announced his run in October, diminishing the lead Paxton had enjoyed over Cornyn, according to the RealClearPolitics polling aggregator.
The contest would likely shift in Hunt’s favor if either Cornyn or Paxton drops out before the March 3 primary, J.L. Partners found.
In head-to-head matchups, Hunt is in front of Paxton, 44% to 34%, and he leads Cornyn, 44% to 33%.
If Hunt abandons his run, Paxton would hold a narrow lead over Cornyn, 41% to 40%.
Hunt, who has represented a suburban Houston House district since 2023, has the highest net favorability of the three contenders at 42 percentage points, compared with 27 points for Paxton and 14 points for Cornyn.
Among likely voters who said they had “seen, read, or heard” anything about Hunt in the previous two weeks, 57% said it made them view him more favorably.
Just 24% of those who consumed media about Cornyn recently said they were left with a more favorable view of the senator, who has been in office since 2002.
Turning to Paxton, just 28% said recent news about him gave them a better impression of the candidate.
In May 2023, the state House impeached Paxton for meddling in a lawsuit to help one of his political donors, who was also employing Paxton’s alleged mistress.
The Texas Senate acquitted the state AG of 16 articles of impeachment related to the scandal. Paxton’s wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton — who recused herself from voting — filed for divorce this past July.
Cornyn, a former Texas Supreme Court justice and state attorney general, is viewed least favorably by self-described “MAGA Republican” voters who give him a net approval rating of just four percentage points, according to the recent survey.
The Republican senator worked across the aisle to pass infrastructure and gun control bills under former President Joe Biden.
Hunt has a net approval rating of 54 points with “MAGA Republican” voters, while Paxton has a net positive rating of 52 points.
“Though both John Cornyn and Wesley Hunt see improvements, it is Wesley Hunt who seems to have the most momentum: his favorability remains very high and — in a head to head — he beats Ken Paxton while Cornyn loses,” Johnson added.
Despite registering the highest approval, Hunt has frustrated colleagues back in Washington for missing dozens of votes.
Last month, House GOP leaders had to hold a vote open and wait for Hunt’s return in order to tank a Democrat-backed resolution blocking Trump from taking further military actions in Venezuela following the arrest of Nicolas Maduro.
The poll surveyed 600 likely voters in the Texas Senate Republican primary Jan. 31-Feb. 2. The margin of error was plus-or-minus four percentage points.
