Fall River flipped Republican for first time in a century. How did Trump do it?

FALL RIVER — For the first time in a century, Fall River swung Republican for a presidential election, helping president-elect Donald Trump reclaim the White House and secure 50% of the popular vote — proof that, here, too, bipartisan tensions have played no small role in determining the winner.

“Harris lost by the smallest sliver,” said Kevin Costa, eight years a Massachusetts State Democratic Committeeman for the First Bristol and Plymouth districts, including Fall River.

This “sliver,” as reflected by official vote counts reported by the Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, was 504 votes. Out of the 30,806 votes cast in the city, Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris won 14,726, and Trump garnered 15,230.

“I don’t know,” Costa said in disbelief over Trump’s victory.

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Washington Post columnist Dionne: Trump’s win of Fall River a ‘total inversion’

To Washington Post political columnist E.J. Dionne, “this is a total inversion of the Fall River I knew.”

Dionne grew up in Fall River, attending the former St. Mathieu’s parish as an altar boy. During a recent visit, he said the Fall River he remembers was mostly populated by Catholic union workers who were loyal Democrats.

“I used to joke that in Fall River back in the day the turnout slogan was ‘Vote for the Kennedy of your choice,’” he said.

Dionne said he’s seen statistics showing that, even when Fall River leaned Republican in the past, it was generally more Democratic than the rest of the state. But in the last few elections the city has been gradually shifting to the right — or, more specifically, to Trump.

Fall River’s Republican turnout has been slowly increasing in the last three decades, but took a major leap when Trump entered politics. He earned more than twice the votes of the last non-Trump Republican presidential candidate, Mitt Romney in 2012.

“I think it was a mix of a lot of things,” said Kayla Churchill, once a volunteer director of the Trump campaign, now the Massachusetts State Republican Committeewoman representing the First Bristol and Plymouth districts. “We ended up seeing a lot of Democrats, a lot of independents, a lot of people in the union. I think people are sick and tired of it.”

Still, Dionne said, if he bet on the election, he would’ve bet Harris would have won here. Instead, Trump took 16 out of 27 precincts, including many working-class neighborhoods.

“Fall River — in a really dramatic way — reflects more dramatically what seems to be happening around the country,” Dionne said.

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What helped Trump win Fall River? The economy, declining unions, immigration

“When I was growing up here, it was the Amalgamated Clothing Workers, it was the Textile Workers Union, it was … the rubber workers,” Dionne said. “It was a labor town.”

He suggested the turn might have to do with declining union membership in Fall River — organizations that not only promoted worker safety and rights but often took the lead in progressive social causes.

“The whole organizing communications system in communities is radically changed when unions disappear, because unions don’t only organize workers. They create a culture. They create a communication structure,” Dionne said. “And when you lose unions, you lose that whole infrastructure, and it’s replaced by right-wing radio and right-wing structures.”

Costa said wealth being concentrated among the richest as being a driving force to explain the city’s Republican switch, alongside inflation, and “there’s an international context,” he said. “But Fall River has its specificities.”

He said that in line with Trump’s “demagoguery,” Republicans “played a game of divide and conquer.” This, he said, fueled extremist Republican groups.

Sending jobs overseas and opening borders are “core issues” for the Republican party, Churchill said.

“We see all of our tax dollars being spent on illegal immigration,” she said. “Nobody wants to see immigration stop. Immigrants made America. We love to see people coming over here, but we do not like to see them coming over illegally.” She said meanwhile system deficiencies allow veterans, families who lost their homes during COVID-19, and unhoused populations to fall through the cracks.

“It doesn’t seem fair,” she said.

Costa said Trump and the Republican party have refused to deal with immigration comprehensively.

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Despite the often harsh tone Trump took on the campaign trail, repeatedly calling political opponents and critics “the enemy within” that he told Fox News might be “very easily handled by, if necessary, by National Guard, or if really necessary, by the military,” Churchill said Trump is “open to working with many Democrats. He’s not for one party.”

She said Trump exemplifies modern Republican views.

Costa said, “It’s clear and unequivocal that he speaks honestly — of bigotry and scapegoating. And we can be vulnerable to that.”

In coordinating local rallies, Churchill said she met many people who were too “nervous” about about publicly supporting Trump with a lawn sign but promised to “secretly vote” for him. She said others decided after conversations with her that the Democratic Party didn’t reflect their values and changed their minds. She claimed registered Democrats and independents came over in waves once Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Trump joined forces.

Churchill said she spoke with a Fall River resident who supported Harris, but as the conversation took off decided for herself that “Kamala is not the party for pro-life, Trump is,” Churchill said, “and she ended up switching parties.”

Fall River’s voter turnout drops as demographics shift to the right

Another aspect that may have contributed to Fall River’s shift rightward: a major dip in turnout. According to voter registration and turnout stats from the Secretary of the Commonwealth, Fall River has generally seen presidential-year turnout of just over 60%.

This year, it dropped to 49%.

New data pointed to an influx of Republican voters who predominantly identified as white men and women, and Latino men. Supporting statistics indicate that younger people voted Republican. Churchill said she saw many people “25 and younger” and rallies and standouts.

A look at precinct-by-precinct results of the election shows the bulk of Trump’s support came from the city’s southern half, including the densely populated areas of Maplewood, the Globe, the King Philip neighborhood, parts of Flint Village, and more suburban parts of the city like the area of North Eastern Avenue and Copicut. Harris was generally strongest in the north, including the Highlands, Lower Highlands, Mechanicsville and Steep Brook, and around Columbia Street, Corky Row and the Flint.

“The Highlands, which was historically the most Republican part of town, is now the most Democratic, and the parts of town that were historically solid Democratic are now turning,” Dionne said.

Costa said he believes the city’s Portuguese, Azorean, Italian, Polish, and French-Canadian multiculturalism of the 1960s — credited with much of Fall River’s industrial and economic success — will experience a new flourish of success in generations to come.

“I suspect in 20 years, we’re going to see many who are newly arrived be entrepreneurial,” Costa said. He referenced studies that show recent waves of immigrants being religious, entrepreneurial and family-oriented. “They’re hard-working, in many cases, socially conservative.”

Churchill said she looks ahead to the Republican Party’s future. “We haven’t had somebody like Justin who was able to win against Pat Haddad,” she said, referencing victory of Republican challenger Justin Thurber over longtime 5th Bristol District Democratic state Rep. Pat Haddad. “People are really waking up.”

This article originally appeared on The Herald News: Republicans win Fall River in 2024 election: Trump leads the shift