From the bubble to the Oscars stage? Ariana Grande floats up to No. 1 in Best Supporting Actress nomination predictions

Last year, Zoe Saldaña‘s awards clean sweep for Emilia Pérez left little room for any other Best Supporting Actress contender to triumph, including Wicked scene-stealer Ariana Grande. But that could all change this time around.

The pop princess-turned-acclaimed actress has floated up to first place in Gold Derby’s Oscar nomination predictions for reprising her role as Glinda the Good Witch in Wicked: For Good. The topsy-turvy Best Supporting Actress category has seen multiple frontrunners already this season, including Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) and Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), but now it’s Grande’s time at No. 1.

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Grande’s ascension comes as more Gold Derby experts, editors, and users have updated their picks following early screenings of — and subsequent raves about — the highly anticipated movie musical. Reviews aren’t out until Nov. 18, but first reactions are calling it “triumphantly magical” with a “haunting brilliance.”

Oscars Nominations 2026

Best Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Supporting Actor Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Screenplay Best Casting Best Cinematography Best Costume Design Best Film Editing Best Makeup and Hairstyling Best Production Design Best Score Best Sound Best Visual Effects Best Animated Feature Best International Film

Contender

Odds

1.

Ariana Grande

89.4%

2.

Teyana Taylor

87.9%

3.

Elle Fanning

81.2%

4.

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas

65.9%

5.

Amy Madigan

57.4%

6.

Gwyneth Paltrow

29.3%

7.

Regina Hall

19.1%

8.

Wunmi Mosaku

11.7%

9.

Odessa A’zion

10.9%

10.

Emily Blunt

5.8%

11.

Jennifer Lopez

3.9%

12.

Glenn Close

3.3%

13.

Margaret Qualley

2.5%

14.

Emily Watson

1.8%

15.

Rebecca Ferguson

1.7%

16.

Hailee Steinfeld

1.6%

17.

Ayo Edebiri

1.4%

18.

Nina Hoss

1.2%

19.

Felicity Jones

0.8%

20.

Zoey Deutch

0.7%

21.

Merritt Wever

0.6%

22.

Kate McKinnon

0.6%

23.

Laura Dern

0.6%

24.

Mia Goth

0.6%

25.

Erin Kellyman

0.5%

26.

Alicia Silverstone

0.5%

27.

Karen Gillan

0.5%

28.

Kerry Condon

0.4%

29.

Mari Yamamoto

0.4%

30.

Emily Mortimer

0.4%

31.

Greta Lee

0.4%

32.

Emma Stone

0.4%

33.

Jamie Lee Curtis

0.4%

34.

Kirsten Dunst

0.3%

35.

Keke Palmer

0.3%

36.

Radhika Apte

0.3%

37.

Zoe Kravitz

0.3%

38.

Alana Haim

0.3%

39.

Gemma Chan

0.2%

40.

Tilda Swinton

0.2%

41.

Phoebe Waller-Bridge

0.2%

42.

Juno Temple

0.2%

43.

Regina King

0.2%

44.

Sissy Spacek

0.2%

45.

Allison Janney

0.2%

46.

Imogen Poots

0.2%

47.

Lauren Graham

0.2%

48.

Kerry Condon

0.2%

49.

Naomi Ackie

0.1%

50.

Thomasin McKenzie

0.1%

51.

Chloe Sevigny

0.1%

52.

Samantha Morton

0.1%

53.

Katy O’Brian

0.1%

54.

Safia Oakley-Green

0.1%

55.

Ayo Edebiri

0.1%

56.

Vicky Krieps

0.1%

57.

Sandra Oh

0.1%

58.

Kerry Washington

0.1%

59.

Jessica Hecht

0.1%

60.

Ilfenesh Hadera

0.1%

61.

Gaby Hoffmann

0.1%

See All Predictions

Grande now leads the predicted slate of Best Supporting Actress nominees with an 89 percent at a nod, up 3 percent from last week. The rest of the projected field includes Taylor at 88 percent, Fanning at 81 percent, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) at 66 percent, and Amy Madigan (Weapons) at 57 percent. Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme) at 30 percent, Regina Hall (One Battle After Another) at 19 percent, and Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) at 12 percent are also in contention.

In addition to Grande, Wicked: For Good has ticked up in such Oscar categories as Best Picture (up 1 percent), Best Actress for Cynthia Erivo (up 3 percent), Best Casting (up 4 percent), Best Costume Design (up 1 percent), Best Makeup & Hairstyling (up 1 percent), Best Production Design (up 1 percent), Best Sound (up 1 percent), and Best Visual Effects (up 1 percent).

This would be Grande’s second career Oscar nomination. She also reaped bids last year for Wicked at the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, and Critics Choice Awards — losing to Saldaña each time.

If she and Erivo were to both receive repeat Oscar noms for playing Glinda and Elphaba in Wicked: For Good, they would become the seventh and eighth performers in Academy Awards history to be nominated twice for the same role. They would join Bing Crosby as Father Chuck O’Malley in Going My Way and The Bells of St. Mary’s; Peter O’Toole as King Henry II in Becket and The Lion in Winter; Al Pacino as Michael Corleone in The Godfather and The Godfather Part II; Paul Newman as “Fast Eddie” Felson in The Hustler and The Color of Money; Cate Blanchett as Elizabeth I in Elizabeth and Elizabeth: The Golden Age; and Sylvester Stallone as Rocky Balboa in Rocky and Creed.

The first Wicked made $473 million at the domestic box office and $756 million worldwide. It won Oscars for Best Costume Design and Best Production Design, and received eight other nominations: Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Film Editing, Best Makeup & Hairstyling, Best Score, Best Sound, and Best Visual Effects.

Gold Derby has learned that the sequel is officially campaigning in 16 Oscar categories, including Best Song, where Stephen Schwartz is eligible as the composer and lyricist of two original tunes: “No Place Like Home,” sung by Erivo; and “The Girl in the Bubble,” performed by Grande. The Oscar nominations will be announced Jan. 22.

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