Gas prices are set to “soar” in parts of the country, delivering a fresh blow to American drivers already shouldering higher price tags for new and used cars, rising maintenance and repair costs, and skyrocketing insurance premiums.
Climbing oil prices has led to gas prices inching up nationwide, as recent sanctions imposed by President Donald Trump raised concerns over Russian and Iranian supplies and uncertainty continues in the Middle East as the fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire starts showing signs of collapsing.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, has now said that the West Coast can expect even higher prices in the coming weeks. “West Coast gas prices (CA, AZ, Las Vegas, some of NV) will soar in the next couple weeks due to refinery issues and change to summer gas,” De Haan wrote on X.
Why It Matters
In a country where cars are an essential method of transport for a majority of people, higher gas prices have a direct negative impact on Americans. They also have a major influence on how U.S. voters feel about the politicians leading them, and the state of the U.S. economy. Rising gas prices have the potential to fuel unhappiness and frustration with the Trump administration, especially if the president is seen as unable to keep his promise to bring down the cost of living for everyday Americans.
What to Know
Prices at the pump skyrocketed in 2021 and 2022 due to disruptions caused by the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the week of June 16, 2022, they reached their highest levels ever, hitting $4.99 a gallon; during the same week, drivers in California paid $6.43 a gallon.
On Tuesday, according to the latest data by the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average price of regular gas was $3.141 a gallon, up from $3.139 the day before and $3.107 a week earlier. Gas prices are still slightly lower than a year ago, when the national average was $3.189 a gallon.
They had been steadily decreasing since July 2024. In the most expensive state in the nation, California, drivers paid a whopping $4.665 a gallon. The whole West Coast is currently a deep red on the AAA map—meaning that Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, and Arizona are seeing the highest gas prices in the country.
“The number of states with gas prices below $3/gal is starting to rapidly decline, now 22 states below $3, last week it was ~30,” De Haan said in a post on X.
Why Are Gas Prices Rising?
Every year there’s a dip in production and a rise in gas prices when U.S. refineries undergo maintenance work in spring; according to historical data, that’s traditionally when gas prices almost always peak in the course of a year. “Excluding abnormal years (Covid, refinery issues, hurricanes), average gas prices peak nationally on April 26th going back 15 years,” De Haan said.
But this year, according to the expert, this traditional spring trend “has been enhanced for the West Coast…due to maintenance and unexpected refinery outages.”
According to De Haan, gas prices are about to surge by as much as 10 to 45 cents a gallon over the next couple weeks in California, Nevada, Arizona, Washington and Oregon. These last two states will see lower increases than California, Nevada, and Arizona.
GasBuddy’s US National Gas Station Price Heat Map
Gas Buddy’s U.S. National Gas Station Price Heat Map show gas prices across the country.
GasBuddy
In the Golden State, De Haan said, the price of gas “could again eclipse the $5 per gallon mark.” The reasons why the state consistently reports the highest gas prices in the country are “its low carbon fuel standard, cap and trade program, CARB mandates, and high gasoline taxes,” De Haan said.
“This problem has been perpetuated for years by California making itself a difficult at best state to produce liquid fuels in, with the state essentially closing itself off, driving prices up and competition down.”
People stop to fill up their cars at a gas station on Rhode Island Avenue on November 26, 2024, in Washington, DC.
Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
Gas prices are also rising as a result of soaring oil prices. On Tuesday, oil prices reached a two-week high, with Brent futures rising $1.13 to reach $77.00 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rising $1.00 to $73.32.
Part of this rise in the oil prices can be linked to concerns over Trump’s squeeze of Iran. On Tuesday, the president’s administration said he’ll be reviving the “maximum pressure” campaign against the country, aiming to bring Iran’s crude oil sales to zero.
When in 2018 the first Trump administration ramped up sanctions on Tehran, oil prices soared beyond $80 per barrel.
What People Are Saying
PVM oil analyst John Evans told Reuters: “With the U.S. bearing down on Iranian exports and sanctions still biting into Russian flows, Asian crude grades remain firm and underpin the rally from yesterday.”
Morgan Stanley wrote in a note this week: “Tariffs and counter-tariffs have the potential to weigh on the oil-intensive part of the global economy in particular, creating uncertainty over demand.”
Christopher Clarke, assistant professor at Washington State University Pullman, wrote on X: “Will ‘drill baby drill’ lower gas prices enough to offset the tax burden from the possible new tariffs? Unlikely. We would need a barrel of oil to come down to $53. Current breakeven price for new wells in US oil fields is between $56-70.”
What’s Next
Last year, Trump ran on the promise to lower inflation and expand U.S. energy dominance by “unleashing” the country’s production at the rhythm of “Drill, Baby, Drill.” But tariffs imposed and then paused on Canada and Mexico, both big oil producers, have raised concerns over climbing prices for U.S. consumers.
Rising gas prices could undercut Trump’s promises of economic growth and relief for American consumers and chip at his popularity among American voters, especially after inflation proved such a crucial issue in the 2024 presidential election.
