Time and again we have been told that women will decide the fate of a presidential election—be it Black women, white women, Latina women, suburban women, working women, and more. Why? Because women are the largest group of registered voters in America—typically 10 million more women are registered to vote than men—and turn out in the highest numbers to cast their ballots. How we vote really can win or lose an election for a candidate.
In 2020, for example, Black women were lauded for propelling Joe Biden to victory. In 2016 white women were equally blamed by the left and celebrated by the right for Donald Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton. And women as a whole—unmarried women in particular—voted in record numbers for Barack Obama, fueling his two terms in 2008 and 2012.
As a result the pressures on our decisions can feel enormous, individually and collectively. Our voting patterns are analyzed. Campaign ads target our votes. We are equally called on as saviors of democracy or protectors of the family—guilt infused into the messaging—no matter what party we align with.
But at the same time, it can feel as though politicians aren’t really listening to the demographic that has for so long put them in power. Little progress has been made on issues that disproportionately affect women. America remains one of only six countries in the world with no national paid family and medical leave program. Childcare remains unaffordable for many. Childcare workers have few protections. And with women making up nearly 47% of the US workforce, but earning less than men in all professions, they bear the brunt uniquely when—as is the case right now—the costs of goods, services, and housing are rising. According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank, American households are now in record debt.
Women are still also dismally underrepresented in politics—from 1965 to 1991, just 2% of US senators were women. It took until 2001 for that percentage to hit 12%. And even today, even with the possibility of the first woman president of the United States, only a quarter of senators are women—with a similar ratio in the House of Representatives.
All this is why, ahead of the 2024 election, Glamour undertook a landmark representative poll with YouGov in January of this year to discover the views of women voters across the country. Which party do they want to vote for? What issues are influencing their decisions? Who do they trust most on each issue? What do they feel is most at stake for women right now?
With just weeks to go until Election Day, the findings illuminate the challenges facing both parties, the politically risky presumption that women don’t hold contradictory views, and the evolving role of women in American society—and how that could influence their vote.
HOW WOMEN LEAN
It’s an extremely tight race. Of the 73% of women polled who say they are registered and intend to vote this year, 53% support the Democrats and 47% the Republicans.
While there are no directly comparative YouGov studies of how women intended to vote in the run-up to previous elections, it is interesting to see how women reported their votes after the election. In 2008, 2012, and 2020, when Obama and Biden had their victories, the split was roughly 56%-44% in the Democrats’ favor. But in 2016, when Trump won, the split was 52%-43% in favor of the Democrats (much more similar to the polling numbers above), with 5% checking off “other” or “not sure.”
The picture for this year’s election gets more interesting the deeper you dive into the Glamour-YouGov data. While support for Democrats is much higher in the 18-to-29 and 30-to-49 age groups (a 60-40 split in the Dems’ favor), only 56% of women aged 18 to 29 say they are registered to vote this year. This is the lowest of any age group by a wide margin. In the next oldest group, 30-to-49- year- olds, 68% are registered.
(Read more about this in our deep dive into “Generation Dissatisfied.”)
In comparison, 91% of women aged 65 and older are registered. And those women skew 57%-42% to the Republicans—a big win for the GOP.
Demographically, white women skew 55%-45% to the Republicans, and Hispanic women voters lean 58%-42% to the Democrats. But a staggering 88% of Black women registered voters lean Democrat—a trend that has powered Democratic presidential candidacies for decades.
(Read more about this in the story of “The Unwavering Black Women Voters.”)
Education also affects political preference; the only bracket that the Republican Party leads in—by 57% to 42%—is women with a high school education or less, regardless of other demographics.
ISSUES OF IMPORTANCE
The top three issues for all women this election are the economy, healthcare and cost of housing.
Across the board—whether it was women we interviewed for our qualitative deep dive or those who participated in the quantitative poll (some of their comments are below)—women spoke about the economy in personal terms: what it cost them, what they could or couldn’t afford. And it often included issues like paid leave and affordable childcare. Health care, too, was seen in terms of prescription costs, though the Black maternal health crisis was a major issue.
Women are still at a significant disadvantage in professional settings. In my field it is much easier for a less qualified man to advance than for a more qualified woman. Further, both men and women need more support for families. There should be mandatory, government-subsidized leave and government-supported childcare. —a Democrat from Illinois
Childcare costs need to be capped, because the rates are exorbitant which means the mother either can’t work, or must work more, in which case she’s unable to spend time with and nurture her child. —a Republican from Georgia
Women should be making the same salary as men doing the same type of work. —a Democrat from Illinois
Give more tax breaks to families, which would put more money in their pocket so the mom wouldn’t have to work full-time. —a Republican from Tennessee
We need affordable housing, affordable health care, affordable childcare, access to abortion, mental health care, equal pay, more representation in all institutions. —a Democrat from Michigan
Women, particularly Black and minority women, remain undertreated and mistreated in health care. They are more likely to die in childbirth. The wage gap continues to affect women. —a Democrat from Ohio
While women are largely united in naming the top two issues, when you break it down along party lines in our poll, other voting concerns begin to emerge. For Democratic women, two further key election issues are gun policy and abortion. For Republican women, it’s criminal justice and foreign policy. Some independent-leaning women additionally raised the transgender debate in sports.
Removing our rights as far as abortion is not acceptable. We have a right to health care. We have the right to make the choice whether we want to carry a baby or not. —a Democrat from Wisconsin
Not all women want abortion to be freely available and legal. Women want to be able to own guns if they qualify but don’t want their abusers to be able to buy them. —a Republican from Michigan
Health care needs to be accessible for everyone, guns need to be controlled, inflation needs to go down, the wealthy need to be taxed. —an undecided from California
I am now 72 and have no need of reproductive health services. However, I have two granddaughters who now have less right to bodily autonomy than I did, and that is simply wrong! Stop hating LGBTQ+ people, immigrants, people of color, and anyone who looks, loves, or thinks differently from you! Stop mass shootings by banning military-style guns!! And for God’s sake—stop banning books. —a Democrat from North Carolina
Biological women are different from biological men physically but should be treated equally intellectually. Sports should be in a separate category due to males being stronger physically than women. —an independent from Hawaii
(Read more about how the economy and health care influence women’s votes in the story of “The Workers Behind the Workers.”)
WOMEN’S IDENTITIES
One of the most significant aspects we wanted to explore in the Glamour-YouGov poll was how women identify themselves and how that identity could influence their view of the current political climate.
Fascinatingly, 71% of all women describe themselves as open-minded. No other identity marker has such broad agreement; 62% of evangelical Christians and 68% of Catholics also agree with that description of themselves. These open-minded women rate abortion, paid leave, and gun policy as issues of extreme importance to them this election.
Other key identity descriptors women choose to identify themselves by were:
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Having traditional values (48% of all respondents): Of Republican-leaning women, 53% said it applied to them; of Democrats, 28%
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Caregiver (42%): Republicans, 38%; Democrats, 42%
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Conservative (33%): Republicans, 69%; Democrats, 15%
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Ambitious (32%): Republicans, 34%; Democrats, 44%
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Progressive (27%): Republicans, 14%; Democrats, 73%
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Feminist (22%): Republicans, 8%; Democrats, 79%
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Breadwinner (19%): Republicans, 33%; Democrats, 44%
All of these identities illuminate some of the complexities of modern womanhood—the push and pull between traditional values and open-mindedness, ambition and caregiving, conservatism and breadwinning. Similar percentages of Republican- and Democratic-leaning women identify in particular as both breadwinners and caregivers. These identity markers are important, as they paint a picture of an electorate that can be multifaceted and—importantly—changeable.
ABORTION AND GUN CONTROL: THE STEREOTYPING MISTAKE
One of the key reasons we have looked at the data from the Glamour-YouGov poll through multiple filters (partisan, socio, race, and more), and at the population of women as a whole, is because it’s all too easy to homogenize women’s views—and presume that all women conform to their party-imposed stereotype. Just look at the Democratic and Republican approaches to issues like abortion and gun control in the run-up to the election. The traditional assumption is that Democratic women support abortion and stricter gun laws, and Republican women oppose both. This is not completely supported by the data, which demonstrates the risk of parties’ taking such entrenched positions on extremely divisive issues.
Personal experience is a factor, particularly when it comes to abortion. About 15% of the women in the survey report needing access to abortion services at some point in their lives (this number included Republican and Democratic supporters). Women who reported having needed access to abortion at some point were about 20 percentage points more likely to say that abortion should always be legal and half as likely to say that abortion should always be illegal.
(Read Emma Giglio’s story of needing an abortion in South Carolina, where the procedure is heavily restricted, in “The Journey of My Abortion.”)
But the debate over access to abortion as a whole is much more divided: 54% of women support access to it, and 46% are opposed to it in all or most circumstances. However, it would be incorrect to assume that support for abortion splits completely down party lines. While 69% of Republican women oppose abortion, 31% support it. And 73% of Democrat women support abortion, but a still notable 27% oppose it.
Gun control is another issue in which the traditional left-right approach doesn’t reflect women’s views as a whole. In fact, it’s an issue the Democrats could use to broaden their appeal, because so many women across the political spectrum support the traditionally more left-wing approach to restricted access.
Gun control unites women across both parties: 64% of Republican women and 86% of Democratic women support raising the minimum age to buy a gun to 21. And 82% of all women support preventing people with mental illnesses purchasing firearms. A supermajority—71%—of all women say gun policy was very important to their vote this year, and 78% say they support banning assault weapons and high-capacity magazines.
Overall, political contradictions are prevalent in one in every five women voters—a finding driven in large part by traditionally Republican women who hold some traditionally Republican viewpoints (opposition to abortion, for example) but do support stricter gun laws.
THE SUPPORT FOR PAID LEAVE
Paid family leave continues to be one of the most popular—and unifying—policies in the country. America remains one of only six countries in the world without a national policy, and yet the Democrats and Republicans are split ideologically over its implementation—the Democrats largely for a state-administered program, and the Republicans, largely against another government-run initiative.
However, a split of this kind does not reflect the electorate, and for the Republicans, this could become a weakness. A massive 83% of all women are in favor of offering paid family leave, 12% didn’t feel strongly, and only 5% oppose it.
Paid leave is an issue of policy directly impacted by personal experience. According to our poll, nearly half of all women—48%—have gone back to work within six weeks of having a baby. In families whose income is under $50,000 a year, that rises to 56% of women returning to work within six weeks. (It’s worth noting that six weeks after giving birth is the time that most women only receive their first postpartum medical checkup. And 12 weeks is the minimum recommended leave from a medical standpoint, according to a paper published by the Jacobs Institute of Women’s Health.)
These figures are all in stark contrast to countries such as the United Kingdom, where recent research found that, on average, women who gave birth to or adopted a child took 40 weeks of paid leave.
PARTY TRUST
We asked women which party, if any, they trust most on the following issues. And the data is notable, for both parties. The Republicans have a slightly stronger lead on the economy, consistently, no matter the constant messaging from the current administration about a manufacturing boom, job growth and inflation reduction. And former president Trump has leaned into this in his campaigning.
But the Democrats arguably have a huge opportunity to exploit when it comes to care—especially since people trust them more on these issues. It’s worth remembering that a huge pillar of Barack Obama’s winning 2008 campaign was his health care reform. Currently, Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Tim Walz have both pledged to pass paid leave, make childcare more affordable, and restore reproductive rights. It could well end up a very successful strategy.
WHERE THIS LEAVES WOMEN TODAY
In a truly historic presidential election year—with Kamala Harris dramatically replacing Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket so close to polling day, and the attempted assassination of the Republican candidate, Donald Trump—it’s all too easy to get distracted by the drama of it all.
But our study shows that women care about substance, whatever their party preference—or lack of it. They intend to vote on the economy, on health care, on paid leave, on abortion, on housing costs, criminal justice, gun policy, and more. And they want to see substantive progress—across the political spectrum. Especially when, still, very little has been achieved in successive administrations—Democratic and Republican—that has directly improved the lives of women.
One of the key issues this election—abortion—is being fought “over women,” as it were, but the results of this poll suggest that the complex and often contradictory views of women themselves, across the political spectrum, aren’t being listened to. And it’s politically risky to assume that all Republican women want to ban abortion and relax gun ownership rules, and Democratic women vice versa.
Because, as our results show, there is a surprising amount of unity among women voters, despite strong divisions in party affiliation. Women are largely united on issues like gun control. The majority of all women see themselves as open-minded. They believe in paid leave.
There are opportunities and issues for both parties to build upon or exploit, for certain. But more than that, this poll shows how much work political parties still must do to win women over—to earn their trust on key election issues; to persuade in particular the disengaged 44% of 18-to-29-year-olds and 32% of 30-to-49-year-olds to register, and vote; and then ultimately to deliver progress for the millions of women who are putting them into power.
To register to vote, go to vote.org.
Originally Appeared on Glamour
