Republicans are heavily favored to take control of the Senate next year, with GOP candidate Tim Sheehy leading by eight percentage points in his bid to flip one of Montana’s two seats, according to a new poll.
The New York Times/Siena College survey released Thursday found Sheehy ahead of Democratic incumbent Jon Tester, 52%-44%, among likely 2024 voters.
With the GOP expected to pick up retiring West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin’s seat, those two victories will hand Republicans a 51-49 majority in the upper chamber if none of their incumbents suffer a shocking loss.
Two of those Republican senators — Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida — are beating their Democratic opponents, according to the Times/Siena poll.
Cruz is up 48%-44% on Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) — within the poll’s margin of error — while Scott is leading former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, 49%-40%.
Notably, however, each of the three senators is running behind Trump — some even by double digits.
Trump leads Harris by seven percentage points in Texas among likely voters (49%-42%), 13 percentage points in Florida (53%-40%), and 17 percentage points in Montana (56%-39%).
In each state, the economy was the most important issue for prospective voters, though an equal proportion of Montana likely voters (22%) said immigration was the most important topic.
In Nebraska, Republican Sen. Deb Fischer is favored to hold on to her seat, though independent candidate Dan Osborn has been leaning into his union ties and working-class upbringing and seeing a surge in some recent polls.
In an evenly divided Senate, the tie-breaking vote is cast by the vice president — a fact often noted in Republican attack ads against Democratic incumbents who helped to pass the Biden-Harris agenda.
Former President Donald Trump and his running-mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, stumped in Montana in August after Trump gave Sheehy, a successful businessman and former Navy SEAL, with his endorsement earlier this year.
A massive $265 million has reportedly been spent on TV ads in Big Sky Country, which Trump won by 16 percentage points in 2020.
Democrats could also lose in up to four other closely watched races, as Sen. Tammy Baldwin defends her seat in Wisconsin, Sen. Bob Casey defends his in Pennsylvania, and Sen. Sherrod Brown his in Ohio, while in Michigan, a seat has been left open by the retirement of Democrat Debbie Stabenow.
Baldwin and Casey are up in their “blue wall” states by 3.7% and 3.9%, respectively, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.
Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is beating Republican candidate Mike Rogers by just 2 points in Michigan, the polling aggregator shows.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has rated all but the Pennsylvania contest as toss-ups. Casey’s race is rated as “slightly Democratic.”
The Times/Siena College poll surveyed 656 voters via telephone in Montana Oct. 5-8. It surveyed another 617 voters in Texas Sept. 29-Oct. 4., and 622 voters in Florida Sept. 29-Oct. 6.
The margin of error was plus or minus four percentage points.
