Republican candidate Elise Stefanik’s chances of winning New York’s gubernatorial election have increased, according to a new internal poll.
According to the polling commissioned and paid for by Stefanik’s fundraising committee, Stefanik, who currently represents New York’s 21st congressional district, is marginally leading her Democratic rival Governor Kathy Hochul, who is vying for a second term, by one percentage point.
The polling comes some 14 months before the election, which is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, and highlights the changing mood of the electorate in what is a reliably Democratic state.
Newsweek reached out to Stefanik and Hochul by email to comment on this story.
Why It Matters
The polling may concern Democrats. The state leans blue and has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in the last 10 elections but President Donald Trump garnered 12 percent more of the vote share in the state in 2024 than he did in 2020.
If Stefanik beats Hochul—who became New York’s first female governor when former Governor Andrew Cuomo resigned in August 2021 amid sexual harassment claims which he has denied—or loses with tight margins, it may confirm a Republican shift in the state.
What To Know
The poll of 1,250 likely midterm voters found that Stefanik is in the lead with 46.4 percent of the vote share to Hochul’s 45.9 percent. This was in a scenario in which Hochul’s recent endorsement of New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani was taken into account. When that decision was not taken into account, Hochul was in the lead—by 48 percent to 43 percent.
The poll, which had a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points, also found that 34 percent said they were ready to re-elect Hochul while 59 percent said they would prefer someone new.
However, Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K., cautioned against using internal polls paid for by the Stefanik campaign. “They have an obvious agenda and want to boost their candidate’s chances,” he told Newsweek.
Meanwhile, other polls suggest Hochul is in the lead with large margins. A September 16 poll conducted by Siena found her leading Stefanik 52 to 27 percent in a hypothetical matchup, up from 45 to 31 percent in August.
Shanahan added that “it’s very clear that Governor Hochul is in a tightening race and next year’s Gubernatorial election will be no stroll in Central Park. While New York City remains solidly Democrat, both upstate and downstate New York are very different with a strong Republican vote and, interestingly, a swathe of independents who could easily lean right. It’s still Hochul’s race to lose, but the polling trends can give Stefanik hope.”
What People Are Saying
Pollster Landon Wall who carried out the survey for the firm Grayhouse said in a memo: “Kathy Hochul’s coalition is historically fragile: soft support from her own voters, significant growing appetite for change, and her endorsement of politically toxic Zohran Mamdani collapses support among Independents.”
“The data overwhelmingly points to unprecedented vulnerability for an incumbent New York Democrat Governor, and a race that Republicans can win,” he added, and called Hochul “one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country.”
Stefanik said in a statement to the New York Post: “The data is clear that Kathy Hochul, the worst Governor in America, is a deeply embattled and historically unpopular failed governor who is struggling to even gain support from her own party.
“It is now crystal clear why Kathy Hochul bent the knee to the Communist Antisemite running for Mayor of New York City because she desperately needed to shore up her own party. Kathy Hochul has destroyed New York State, creating an affordability crisis with the highest taxes in the nation, and the highest energy, utility, rent, and grocery bills.”
What Happens Next
The New York gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026.
