A solid pitching matchup is on tap for Thursday afternoon as Taj Bradley and Gavin Williams face off in a critical divisional tilt ahead of the MLB trade deadline next week.
The Guardians (-138, Polymarket) have opened as moderate favorites against a Twins team (+120) that will need to snag some victories to bridge the gap between themselves and the top of the Wild Card race.
Should the Twins lose this game, it could push them towards being sellers at the deadline, while a win might make them think again.
All of this is to say, the Twins need this when they send Bradley to the mound on Thursday afternoon.
He’s been their best or second-best pitcher this season, pitching to a 3.85 ERA and striking out a team-high 10.4 batters per nine innings.
Williams is every bit as good a strikeout pitcher as Bradley, as Williams is striking out 29.9 percent of batters (10.9 K’s per nine innings).
Both pitchers are good at striking batters out, but it’s walks that continue to bug them, as Williams has 37 walks issued this season, the 16th-most in all of baseball.
Bradley is even worse, walking 43 batters so far this season, the eighth most in all of baseball.
It’s a testament to how electric these two’s pitching repertoires are that they are still among the best in baseball, but a bit unreliable in terms of control.
I’m more bullish on these two on Thursday than I would be normally, as both pitchers love facing these lineups.
Bradley had one of the best starts of his season last time out against the Guardians on July 7, striking out 10 and walking zero, one of two starts this season where he did not walk a batter.
Williams was also excellent against the Twins on 7/9, as he struck out a season-high 11 batters, and he has a sparkling 2.88 ERA in his last four starts vs. Minnesota since last year.
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As for bets, I prefer to target the over on strikeouts for both pitchers, assuming the player prop opens at over/under 6.5 as it has often for Williams and Bradley.
Given both pitchers’ sustained success against these lineups, I’m also targeting no runs in the first inning (+105, Fanatics Sportsbook) and the first-5-inning total runs under, which I project to come in at 4.5 runs.
THE PLAYS: No runs in the first inning (+105, Fanatics Sportsbook) | Under runs for the first five innings when released | Over strikeouts for both pitchers.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
