A presidential prognosticator with a 40-year track records of successfully calling elections has issued his predictions for 2024.
Alan Lichtman, a historian at American University, said Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for the White House, will win in November over the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump.
In a New York Times video, Litchman, dubbed the political Nostradamus for his forecasting abilities, said the prediction is based on 13-true-or-false questions – or “keys” – on the candidates and not on current polling.
“Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States — at least that’s my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote,” Litchman said in the video.
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Litchman’s 13 keys are:
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the House than after the previous midterm elections.
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- Third-party: There is no significant campaign from a third party or independent candidate.
- Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Policy change: Incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.
- Social unrest: No sustained social unrest during the term.
- Scandal: Incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- Foreign/military failure: Incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Foreign/military success: Incumbent administration achieves major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Incumbent charisma: Incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Challenger charisma: Challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Lichtman said eight of the keys were “true” and favor Harris. Three were deemed “false” and favor Trump. The false keys were: the White House party gained House seats in the 2022 mid-terms, the sitting president is running for reelection and the determination that Harris wasn’t a particularly charismatic candidate.
Two other keys – foreign policy failure or success – are still in play, he added.
In 2016, Lightman successfully predicted Trump would win the election before forecasting a Biden victory in 2020. President Biden exited the race in July amid dismal poll numbers. Most national polls show Harris is leading in the race though numbers appear to be narrowing and remain too close to call in many states.
