The Iowa State Capitol on Feb. 13, 2024. (Photo by Robin Opsahl/Iowa Capital Dispatch)
Republicans are coming into the 2024 general election with significant advantages in the Iowa legislature, but Democrats see seats where they could gain ground by motivating voters on issues like public education and abortion.
Similarly, Republicans see some races where they believe their Statehouse trifecta’s track record on issues like cutting taxes could pick up more seats.
In the upcoming election, all Iowa House seats are up for reelection, as are state senators in even-numbered districts. While much of the focus in the upcoming election in Iowa has been on the presidential race and contested U.S. House seats – particularly in the 1st and 3rd congressional Districts – there has been significant spending and focus on some state legislative races that Iowa party leaders say could influence the future of the state’s political landscape.
In the last election in 2022, Republicans saw sweeping victories in Iowa at both the state and federal levels. Iowa’s congressional delegation is now entirely Republican, and all statewide elected officials except for Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand are Republicans. In the state Legislature, Republicans increased their majority in the House and took a supermajority in the Iowa Senate.
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House Minority Leader Jennifer Konfrst said in an interview with Iowa Capital Dispatch that she believes the 2024 election will have very different results than 2022 because of Iowans’ discontent with recent GOP policies.
“Since the last election, Republicans in the Legislature and the governor have specifically passed three pieces of legislation that are incredibly harmful and incredibly unpopular,” Konfrst said. “So we’ve got an opportunity to hold them accountable for those votes. It’s not theoretical anymore, it’s happened.”
Konfrst said she has spoken with many voters across the state who are unhappy with the six-week abortion ban that recently went into effect. The so-called “fetal heartbeat” law was passed during a special session in 2023 after the Iowa Supreme Court upheld a lower court’s injunction on a 2018 version of the law. The new version, that the state Supreme Court allowed to begin enforcement, bans most abortions after embryonic cardiac activity is detectable, which can occur as early as six weeks. There are narrow exceptions for rape and incest when reported in specified timeframes, as well as when an abortion is needed to save the life of the mother.
A Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll taken in September found that 59% of Iowans oppose the abortion ban. Konfrst said Iowans think the law “goes too far,” and believes that the issue will motivate voters to turn out for Democrats at the polls.
She also said Iowans are dissatisfied with Republicans’ education policies. She cited two issues that are motivating voters across the state: Iowa’s private school scholarship program – public funding for tuition and associated costs at K-12 private schools – as well as the 2024 changes to the state’s Area Education Agency system that provides services for students with disabilities and other programming.
These issues – as well as a surge of motivation following Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the Democratic presidential nominee – has led to a higher investment in down-ballot Democratic candidates, including those running in state legislative races.
While spending has increased, House Speaker Pat Grassley said in a statement that state Republicans were still feeling secure leading up to Election Day.
“Unfortunately for the House Democrats, they’ve had to spend a significant amount on defending incumbents just to maintain their tiny minority,” Grassley said. “We’re confident we have the hardworking candidates and the resources we need to deliver our message that has proven to resonate with Iowans election after election.”
Speaking with reporters earlier in the year, Grassley said the GOP House caucus was dedicated to working “to get that money back in the hands of Iowans,” emphasizing the further cuts to individual income taxes made in the 2024 legislative session as well as the “responsible” government spending decisions that have left Iowa with a $1.9 billion budget surplus and projected $3.7 billion in the taxpayer relief fund.
Issues like inflation and higher cost of living have been highlighted as motivating factors leading into the 2024 general election – subjects that election analysts predict will largely help GOP candidates. But Sen. Nate Boulton, D-Des Moines, said Democratic candidates are also hearing about economic problems on the campaign trail.
“We feel we’re positioned to deliver a better deal for Iowans when it comes to the economy and making ends meet,” Boulton said. “For too long, the focus has been on tax credits, exemptions and giveaways to the largest corporations, leaving working Iowans paying an … undue share of the tax burden. As a result, when we want to really grow Iowa’s economy, our focus has to be on the individual workers that make our economy successful, prioritizing them.”
Here are some of the races we’re watching ahead of the 2024 election:
Iowa Senate District 14
State Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott’s victory against former Senate President Jake Chapman in the 2022 midterm elections was one of the few highlights for Iowa Democrats in the previous election. Now, Trone Garriott is defending the seat representing Waukee, Adel, Van Meter and parts of West Des Moines against Republican challenger Mark Hanson.
Data from the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board show Trone Garriott has somewhat of an advantage in campaign finance. Trone Garriott has raised more than $777,000 from the beginning of 2023 through Oct. 14, 2024, while Hanson has raised just more than $33,000. However, Hanson has received more support from outside groups and the state political party, reaching more than $452,000 in-kind contributions to the incumbent Democrat’s $391,000.
Criticisms of Trone Garriott by Republicans have focused on the Democrat being too “radical” for Iowa voters. A website titled “sarahforradicals.com,” paid for by the Republican Party of Iowa, points to the senator’s votes against measures prohibiting people from entering school restrooms and locker rooms that do not correspond with their designated gender at birth, as well as voting against creating a $3 million grant program for schools to purchase “infrastructure and equipment related to employee permits to carry weapons.”
Trone Garriott, in her own TV advertisement, speaks about her experience working as a hospital chaplain and relates it to Iowa’s state abortion laws.
“It’s not my place as a minister and certainly not as a state senator to ever make their medical decisions for them,” Trone Garriott said in the ad. “That’s why I fought so hard against Iowa’s abortion ban and I’ll keep fighting to restore our rights.”
Hanson, who served more than a decade as a Dallas County supervisor, has stated on social media that he would focus on further cutting taxes, supporting law enforcement and “ensuring biological women always compete against biological women” as a state legislator.
Iowa Senate District 20
Though Iowa Sen. Nate Boulton, D-Des Moines, is representing a district typically considered a safe blue seat, recent redistricting adding areas of Altoona and Pleasant Hill could make the race for Senate District 20 more competitive.
Like in other races, Boulton, a Democrat, has raised significantly more campaign cash than his Republican challenger Mike Pike at $426,159 to $28,284. However, Pike has made up ground with outside spending from the state Republican Party and other groups, with $433,391 in-kind contributions. Boulton has received $311,990 in outside spending.
Ads focused on Boulton running on Des Moines area stations have pointed to the former Democratic gubernatorial candidate’s decision to exit the 2018 race over sexual misconduct allegations. One attack ad says Boulton “pretends to be a defender of women, but his record is just the opposite.”
Responding ads from Boulton and supporters featured his wife, Andrea Boulton, defending her husband against the criticisms. Another Democrat-backed ad criticizes Pike for a 2020 social media post where he responded “Amen and amen” to a post stating that sending children to public schools and sending women into the workforce are “two of the biggest mistakes Christians have made.”
Iowa Senate District 22
Incumbent Sen. Brad Zaun, R-Urbandale, faces a challenge from former Urbandale City Council member Matt Blake, a Democrat in the most expensive legislative race of the 2024 campaign cycle, according to Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board data. In the 2024 election cycle, candidates have received through fundraising and in-kind contributions a total of $1.72 million.
While Blake had greater fundraising numbers than Zaun, raising more than $543,000 to Zaun’s $191,000, the Republican incumbent has seen more than $671,000 spent on his behalf by outside groups and state political parties compared to $316,000 spent for Blake.
Zaun said at a Westside Conservative Club meeting in October that he would focus on making further changes to Iowa’s property tax system if reelected, in addition to defending GOP approaches to issues like abortion, supporting the six-week ban. While an ad supported by Blake and the Iowa Democratic Party stated that Zaun supports a total abortion ban — stating “that is absolutely right” when asked by Rep. Brian Meyer, D-Des Moines, if he wanted to ban abortion with no exceptions — Zaun later said he supports the state law’s exceptions for cases of rape, incest and to save the life of the pregnant person.
In his own advertisements, Blake says he wants to bring “common sense” to the Iowa Legislature by opposing the state Education Savings Account program and the six-week abortion ban.
“I was proud to serve our country and defend our freedoms in Iraq,” Blake said in the ad. “So it shocked me to see politicians here take freedom away from Iowa women with their cruel abortion ban.”
Iowa Senate District 38
There’s one district where the Iowa GOP has not decided to spend significant money despite redistricting presenting them a potential opportunity to flip a seat — Senate District 38. Sen. Eric Giddens, D-Cedar Falls, is running for reelection in the seat that recently shifted to incorporate more rural areas of Tama and Benton counties in the 2021 redistricting process.
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee named Giddens’ race against Republican Dave Sires, a Cedar Falls businessman and former city council member, as one of their top legislative focuses leading into the 2024 election. The Democratic incumbent has raised $431,382 through fundraising, in addition to $152,562 in-kind contributions from outside groups.
But his opponent has not seen the financial support present in other races. Sires raised $87,778 during the election cycle, and only received $21,206 in outside spending.
The lack of spending comes after Sires won a contentious three-way primary election in June to become the GOP nominee against James McCullagh, a business owner and entrepreneur and former Waterloo City Council member Steve Schmitt.
Sires lists himself as a “pro-life and pro-parent” candidate on his campaign website while calling for a reduction to government. Giddens, in contrast, has campaigned on overturning Republican trifecta policies like the ESA program and abortion ban.
Iowa House District 20
Rep. Josh Turek, D-Council Bluffs, won his election to represent the seat in 2022 by a margin of six votes, defeating Republican Sarah Abdouch. Turek is currently the sole Democrat in most of southwest Iowa. The former Paralympian has campaigned on improving health care systems — especially for Iowans with disabilities and in assisted living — as well as increasing public school funding and raising the minimum wage.
This year, Turek faces a challenge by Republican James Wassell, who states on his campaign website that he is dedicated to protecting “family values and freedoms” in Iowa and reducing taxes. In recent campaign finance reports, Turek has raised significantly more with $114,243 than Wassell at $2,085. However, there has been significant backing through in-kind contributions, with $119,208 spent on behalf of the Republican challenger. Turek has received $97,907 in-kind contributions.
Iowa House District 28
Rep. David Young, R-Van Meter, is running for reelection as both a Statehouse incumbent and well-known political figure in Iowa — he previously served as the 3rd Congressional District’s congressman before being defeated by Democratic former U.S. Rep. Cindy Axne in 2018 and again in 2020.
The area he represents in Dallas County includes portions of West Des Moines as well as Adel and Van Meter and has a sizable Democratic base, overlapping with Senate District 14 where Trone Garriott is running for reelection. But there has not been significant Democratic spending behind challenger Laura Snider, an attorney.
Snider has called for the Legislature to act on issues like abortion and funding public education, major talking points in the 2024 election, in addition to highlighting issues like “common-sense gun legislation” and investing in the state’s mental health system.
Snider has raised $61,756 in campaign contributions and $26,039 in-kind contributions. Young has far surpassed her in both categories, raising $253,206 in the 2024 election cycle and receiving $348,265 in outside spending.
Iowa House District 40
Another Des Moines metro area race that election watchers expect to be close is House District 40, where incumbent Rep. Bill Gustoff, R-Des Moines, defends his seat against Democrat Heather Sievers. Sievers’ bid for the seat, which covers parts of northeast Des Moines and Altoona, is another race highlighted by national Democrats as a potential pick-up in 2024.
Gustoff has maintained the lead in campaign finance, raising $123,262 and receiving $335,940 in outside spending. Sievers earned slightly more through fundraising than her opponent at $133,031 in the election cycle, but did not receive as much backing from outside organizations with $139,994 in in-kind contributions.
Sievers came to the race with a background as a health care professional and as the parent to a child with a disability, advocating for the state’s AEA system which she said has provided vital support for her family.
“I have seen how the current political landscape has hurt Iowans and continues to create more divisions among us,” Sievers said in a statement on her campaign website. “It’s time for new leaders at the State Capitol who listen to Iowans and make positive change.”
Gustoff, in a campaign ad, highlights inflation as a major issue impacting Iowans ahead of the 2024 election as well as speaking about his support for higher public school funding.
“Together, we can tackle rising costs and build a better future for Iowa,” he says.
Iowa House District 94
When Rep. Mike Vondran, R-Davenport, flipped the Scott County seat to GOP control in the 2022 midterm elections, it was one of the most expensive races in the state. While spending is down in Vondran’s race against Democrat Tracy Jones in this year’s election, Republican supporters have still put significant money into the race.
Vondran received $275,532 in in-kind contributions during this election cycle, as well as fundraising $88,165. In contrast, Jones raised $30,396 in contributions and received just $1,106 in outside spending.
In an interview with the Quad-City Times, Vondran said he supports the Republican trifecta’s approach on abortion and public school funding, pointing to the move increasing teachers’ salaries during the 2024 legislative session.
However, Jones argued that the state ESA program was taking funding from Iowa’s public school system and moving it to private schools and that Republicans “went too far” with the six-week abortion ban.
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