President-elect Donald Trump won Arizona on his way back to the White House, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris after a hard-fought battle in the Grand Canyon State.
The presidential race in Arizona encompassed many of the national trends that propelled Trump to victory, in vote-rich Maricopa County and beyond. Trump made gains in the Phoenix suburbs, outperformed his 2020 results in the border counties and benefited from a national swing to the right.
Along the way, Trump relied on outside groups to counter a Harris campaign ground game program and rally low propensity voters to cast ballots on his behalf.
The result was an election result that wasn’t particularly close, especially compared with Trump’s loss to President Joe Biden, which was decided by fewer than 11,000 votes in 2020.
This time around, Trump defeated Harris by some 187,000 votes, a margin roughly 18 times larger than the result four years ago.
Here’s how it happened.
Maricopa County swung right
Maricopa County is the biggest battleground county in the country. It’s also the most important region in Arizona elections. Well over half of the state’s voters live there, and the county is home to a diverse set of voter blocs.
Maricopa County swung to the right in the presidential election, aiding Trump on Election Day. Areas with notable rightward shifts included the Latino-heavy neighborhoods of south and west Phoenix, and the East Valley cities that moved toward Biden four years ago.
Trump’s strength in Maricopa County was particularly stinging for Democrats because of how consequential it was in Biden’s defeat of Trump in 2020. The Harris campaign tried unsuccessfully to hold that coalition together in 2024.
Harris carried Phoenix, but Trump dominated the suburbs
Phoenix was a bright spot for Harris in Maricopa County, but Trump’s strength in the surrounding suburbs allowed him to run up the score on Nov. 5.
Harris won Phoenix with 57% of the vote. Trump received 42%, according to city election results.
But in nearby Gilbert, Trump won by 16 percentage points. He carried Mesa by 12 percentage points and Scottsdale by 9 percentage points.Trump’s biggest margins in metro Phoenix were in Morristown and Wittmann, two communities where he received roughly three out of every four presidential votes. Harris’ widest margin of victory was Tolleson, which she won with 65% of support.
Trump made gains in Arizona’s border counties
Trump promised a crackdown at the U.S.-Mexico border on the campaign trail, and the voters who live closest to Arizona’s southern border moved toward him compared to 2020.
Trump made gains in all four Arizona counties that share a border with Mexico, even the counties that Harris ultimately won.
The biggest shifts toward Trump came in Yuma County, which he won, and Santa Cruz County, which went toward Harris. He gained support in Cochise County, the region that Trump, Vice President-elect JD Vance and Harris visited during the campaign. Trump also made a minor improvement in Pima County, which is home to Tucson.
Why Democrats’ ground game flopped
Democrats built an organizing juggernaut in battleground Arizona to boost Harris in the final weeks of the presidential race. Trump easily overcame it on Election Day.
Political experts say that the ground game, the work of knocking doors and getting voters to cast ballots, is worth a percentage point or two in a close race. Trump was on track to win by roughly five percentage points in Arizona, despite public polling that showed a much closer contest for most of the race.
That created an uphill climb for Harris, and now some Democrats say it is time to reevaluate how on-the-ground campaigning is done. Her supporters knocked on 112,000 Arizona doors on the Saturday before the election and made well over a half-million phone calls in a single day.
Trump’s message on the economy and immigration – two of the top issues for voters – helped him turn Arizona red after his 2020 loss. He also relied on outside groups to handle the door knocking and other get-out-the-vote tasks that Harris handled within her own campaign infrastructure.
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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Here’s what happened in Arizona’s presidential election
