The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most divisive in American history, with battleground states expected to play a pivotal role in determining the outcome.
Allan Lichtman, a historian renowned for his accurate predictions in nine of the last 10 presidential elections, has made his forecast for the upcoming race. Lichtman believes Vice President Kamala Harris will claim the presidency in November.
However, his prediction hinges on critical swing states, including Arizona, where 11 electoral votes are up for grabs.
Who is Allan Lichtman and what does he base his predictions on?
Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University in Washington, D.C., earned his doctorate from Harvard and specializes in modern American history and quantitative methods. He has published his “Keys to the White House” model since 1984, basing his predictions on 13 true-or-false indicators. These “keys” assess the performance and strength of the incumbent White House party.
The keys include whether:
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The White House party gained House seats during the midterm elections.
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The sitting president is running for reelection.
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The White House party is avoiding a primary contest.
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There is a third-party challenger.
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The short-term economy is strong.
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The long-term economic growth has been as good as the last two terms.
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The White House party has made major changes to national policy.
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There is sustained social unrest during the term.
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The White House is untainted by scandal; the incumbent party is charismatic.
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The challenger is uncharismatic.
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The incumbent is charismatic.
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The White House party has a major failure in foreign policy.
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The White House party has foreign policy success.
Who will win in New Jersey in the presidential election?
New Jersey has backed the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 1992, with margins consistently in double digits since 2008. In 2020, the state supported Democrat Joe Biden of Delaware by a 57% to 41% margin.
According to a prediction by The Hill, New Jersey is comfortably going to go blue again.
When is the vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and JD Vance?
JD Vance and Tim Walz will debate on Oct. 1, hosted by CBS News.
This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Who will win the presidential election? What renowned historian says
