The red wave should have been bigger.
The GOP gained control of all three branches of government this week, but ultra-gerrymandered districts around the country have made it close to impossible for Republicans to make even bigger gains in the House.
More than a dozen seats that were winnable in the 2010s are anything but in the 2020s, GOP insiders told The Post, leaving the party suck around 218 seats, the minimum needed to control the chamber.
“What you’ve seen is that you have many fewer competitive seats in the country because the way in which redistricting is conducted,” said former New York GOP Rep. John Faso, who has made a career of fighting partisan redistricting in the Empire State.
New Jersey’s 11th and 5th districts, representing Morris and Bergen counties respectively, were swing districts in the 2010s until they were redrawn by the New Jersey Congressional Redistricting Commission in 2021.
Both were fortified with Democratic towns like Englewood and Englewood Cliffs in the 5th district and Maplewood, South Orange, and Belleville in the 11th. The moved shored up Dem Reps. Mikie Sherrill and Josh Gottheimer.
New Jersey’s third district, represented by Rep. Andy Kim (now heading to the U.S. Senate) centered in Moorestown became considerably more Democrat after losing most of Ocean County — which backed Trump this year by more than 67% of the vote.
“Very clearly what they tried to do was created as much of a status quo map for their incumbents as possible.”
Both Gottheimer and Sherrill cruised to victory in 2022 and 2024. Kim’s replacement Herb Conaway also coasted to a win over his GOP opponent. Republicans said the new lines unduly corralled their voters into a “sink” fourth district in Manchester Township, now represented by Rep. Chris Smith.
“Very clearly what they tried to do was created as much of a status quo map for their incumbents as possible,” Harrison Neely, a GOP political consultant who participated in the state redistricting told The Post.
Illinois’ 13th district was safe and compact GOP region for more than 100 years, and through most of the 2010s was represented by GOP Rep. Rodney L. Davis.
But after a partisan gerrymander by the state legislature in 2021, the district was carved up like a Christmas goose, linking Democratic strongholds such as Champaign, Urbana, Decatur and Springfield, while bypassing the surrounding Republicans rural areas. It is now held by Democrat Nikki Budzinski.
A similar story has played out in Michigan’s third district, centered in Grand Rapids represented throughout the 2010s by moderate Republicans, Reps. Justin Amash and then Peter Meijer.
But after some changes a the so-called independent Citizens Redistricting Commission — the seat, red since the early 1990s — flipped decisively to Democrat Hillary Scholten in 2022. The news district removed Barry, Calhoun, and Ionia counties, all of which voted for Trump in the 2024 presidential contest.
Though Nevada went red in the 2024 presidential contest, three of its four members of Congress will be Democrats thanks to a 2021 redistricting.
The statewide gerrymander was given an F by the nonpartisan Gerrymandering Project, which cited “significant Democratic advantage” in the new map.
Jason Roe, a Michigan GOP consultant said the independent redistricting commission was anything but.
“They wanted an outcome. They wanted a map that could elects Democrats,” Roe said. “One of the reasons they targeted southwest Michigan, is because there is an actual moderate Republican strain there. It is the Dutch influence in the greater Gerand Rapids influence.”
Democrats cited similar efforts by the GOP in North Carolina and Texas.
“The courts have overwhelmingly have ruled against Republicans in [redistricting] fights,” said New York State Democratic party chair Jay Jacobs. “It’s really a bit of irony that this is now what they complain about when they have been the masters of gerrymandering for well over a decade.”
The trouble for Republicans dates back to the 2018 election, according to GOP sources, who pointed to districts in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Colorado that have been unfairly impacted by gerrymandering.
Democrat control of statehouses opened the door to their domination of the redistricting process, which in most states is done by state legislatures. .
In addition to gaining 41 House seats, the party dominated state elections that year, winning open governor’s seats in Michigan, Nevada, Kansas, New Mexico and Maine, and ousting GOP incumbents in Illinois and Wisconsin.
“In 2010s, Republicans had a wave election that helped them in redistricting for the next decade. Democrats had that save wave election in 2018 and so until 2032,” said GOP consultant Ryan Girdusky.
As the dust settles on the 2024 elections, Republicans will control the Senate with a 53-47 majority, while the House currently stands at 218 Republicans to 209 Democrats — with eight seats outstanding.
